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Matches / Upcoming / fnatic vs Phantom

fnatic vs Phantom: CS2 match prediction, odds and preview · Stake Pulse Beat II

fnatic
World #42 · 44-30
VS
2026-09-23 10:00 UTC
Stake Pulse Beat II · Best of 3
Phantom
World #72 · 53-51
Stake Pulse Beat II · Best of 3
75%
Win probability
25%
58%
1.592.23Market · 2 booksBookmakerFNAPHAGGBet1.592.23Sweatbet 1.592.23
42%
The call · high confidence

fnatic are favoured: our model gives them 75% against Phantom. Bookmakers lean fnatic at 58%. Strength slightly favours fnatic, record slightly favours fnatic, firepower clearly favours fnatic, head-to-head clearly favours fnatic.

Likely mapsAnubis · Ancient · Dust2

Firepower

roster ratings

fnatic · avg 1.17 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.

PlayerK-DADRKASTHSRating
cairne★1.1780.676.9%56%1.28
jackasmo1.1482.674.9%61%1.22
jambo1.2176.573.8%40%1.2
mazay1.1478.574.8%56%1.18
fEAR0.8668.371.2%50%0.97

Phantom · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.

PlayerK-DADRKASTHSRating
nicoodoz★1.2882.176.5%50%1.21
Kylar1.0873.173%60%1.17
KEi1.0277.273%49%1.1
Kunai0.9273.169.9%59%1.05
TMB0.8773.170.2%55%1.05

Recent form

fnatic

DramaUpsetUpsetPistolsPist2/210d ago14-16Ninjas in PyjamasPistolsPist5/6Blew leadBL610d ago2-1BBL11d ago2-1ASTRALUpsetUpset12d ago8-13Virtus.proComebackCB7OvertimeOT13d ago2-1TeletubisieStompStomp13-217d ago2-1K27UpsetUpsetOvertimeOT1mo ago1-2HEROICUpsetUpsetPistolsPist3/41mo ago2-0Fluxo1mo ago2-066661mo ago2-0FKOMARPistolsPist3/41mo ago2-0Liquid1mo ago0-2EACPistolsPist3/4ComebackCB61mo ago2-0MetizportStompStomp2-131mo ago2-1LilmixPistolsPist3/41mo ago2-0

Phantom

G2 AresPistolsPist3/41d ago2-0SINNERS9d ago0-2INFINITEUpsetUpsetPistolsPist3/412d ago0-2OG13d ago2-1ex-Zero Tenacity17d ago0-2Nemiga18d ago2-1LeoComebackCB6Blew leadBL719d ago2-1AcendOvertimeOT23d ago17-19JiJieHaoPistolsPist5/61mo ago1-2NRG1mo ago2-1levelONEPistolsPist4/41mo ago2-0EYEBALLERSOvertimeOT1mo ago1-2levelONEPistolsPist3/41mo ago2-0Sashi1mo ago0-2LavkedPistolsPist3/42mo ago2-0

Head-to-head

past meetings & common opponents
5mo ago fnatic2 : 0 Phantom!
⚠ Different lineup
fnatic
outBr4tkO, KRIMZ
incairne, mazay
Phantom
outlunAtic, mwlky
inTMB, nicoodoz
Alliance#211-41-2
fnatic vs Alliance
Jun 14LAnubis4-13Dust219-17Ancient6-13Mar 31LAnubis9-13Inferno13-16
Phantom vs Alliance
Feb 17LNuke13-8Overpass17-19Anubis10-13
HEROIC#322-01-2
fnatic vs HEROIC
Aug 9WAncient13-9Inferno13-11
Phantom vs HEROIC
Jul 16LAncient11-13Nuke16-14Dust211-13
K27#413-30-2
fnatic vs K27
Aug 9LAncient13-8Mirage13-16Cache10-13Feb 10WDust216-13Mirage0-13Overpass13-8
Phantom vs K27
Jul 17LNuke9-13Ancient6-13
FOKUS#431-22-3
fnatic vs FOKUS
May 30LAncient9-13Inferno13-7Dust28-13
Phantom vs FOKUS
Jun 21WDust210-13Ancient13-7Nuke19-16Mar 25LAncient20-22Nuke13-16
SINNERS#450-21-2
fnatic vs SINNERS
Feb 12LDust210-13Overpass3-13
Phantom vs SINNERS
Sep 7LAncient4-13Mirage7-13Feb 22WOverpass13-8
EYEBALLERS#490-11-2
fnatic vs EYEBALLERS
Apr 14LMirage8-13
Phantom vs EYEBALLERS
Aug 8LAncient11-13Inferno19-17Anubis10-13
Sashi#551-32-3
fnatic vs Sashi
Apr 12LAncient5-13Mar 30LAncient16-14Dust25-13Inferno7-13
Phantom vs Sashi
Aug 4LAnubis4-13Cache6-13Feb 23WOverpass11-13Mirage13-11Nuke13-10
GenOne#561-24-3
fnatic vs GenOne
Jan 22LAncient4-13Anubis13-8Dust214-16
Phantom vs GenOne
May 5WDust213-10Ancient10-13Nuke13-9Apr 29WDust213-7Ancient13-11Apr 16LDust27-13Nuke6-13

Map lab

fnatic66%to win the Bo3 · most likely fnatic 2-0
If the veto goes
fnatic 66%how the series ends34% Phantom
40%2-013%
26%2-121%
Map 1Anubisfnatic pick
fnatic69%21-12vsPhantom31%6-8
64%Win43%
50%CT53%
56%T48%
52%Pistol43%
94%Conv75%
Map 2AncientPhantom pick
fnatic58%20-16vsPhantom42%25-28
56%Win47%
52%CT51%
51%T49%
51%Pistol57%
92%Conv75%
Map 3Dust2decider
fnatic55%15-13vsPhantom45%22-24
54%Win48%
50%CT52%
51%T48%
46%Pistol50%
92%Conv80%

Pistol, eco & sides

who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team owns

CT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.

fnaticAnubisPhantom
50%CT side53%
56%T side48%
52%Pistol43%
94%After win75%
19%After loss13%
fnaticAncientPhantom
52%CT side51%
51%T side49%
51%Pistol57%
92%After win75%
11%After loss20%
fnaticDust2Phantom
50%CT side52%
51%T side48%
46%Pistol50%
92%After win80%
20%After loss20%
Pistol rounds50% · 52% · level, no edge
After a won pistol93% · 77% · fnatic keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol16% · 19% · both bounce back about the same

Projected veto

likely picks & bans
ihow this projection works

A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, fnatic vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.

Phantom habitually bans Inferno, fnatic's strongest maps (Anubis, Inferno, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Inferno 81/104), not an opponent read, so expect fnatic to fight the veto for Anubis.
MapFNAPHA
NukeFNA bann/a0g54%30-26
fnatic on Nuke
no recent maps
Phantom on Nuke
LOG9–1313d agoLex-Zero Tenacity5–1317d agoLLeo10–1319d agoWLavked13–62mo agoWVexar13–82mo agoLINOX Division8–132mo agoLK279–132mo agoWHEROIC16–142mo ago
InfernoPHA ban76%16-586%6-1
fnatic on Inferno
WNinjas in Pyjamas13–810d agoLBBL9–1311d agoWHEROIC13–111mo agoWFluxo13–101mo agoWBASEMENT BOYS13–53mo agoWFOKUS13–74mo agoWRune Eaters13–104mo agoWALGO13–84mo ago
Phantom on Inferno
WG2 Ares13–91d agoLINFINITE7–1312d agoWOG13–1113d agoWJiJieHao13–71mo agoWNRG13–81mo agoWEYEBALLERS19–171mo agoWINOX Division13–32mo ago
AnubisFNA pick64%21-1243%6-8
fnatic on Anubis
WVirtus.pro16–1313d agoWTeletubisie13–217d agoWFluxo13–101mo agoW666613–51mo agoLLiquid5–131mo agoWMetizport13–81mo agoWBRUTE13–112mo agoWMisa13–82mo ago
Phantom on Anubis
WLeo13–1119d agoLJiJieHao11–131mo agoLEYEBALLERS10–131mo agoLSashi4–131mo agoWpaiN13–52mo agoWWalczaki13–113mo agoLfnatic13–165mo agoWASTRAL13–86mo ago
AncientPHA pick56%20-1647%25-28
fnatic on Ancient
LDrama14–1610d agoWBBL13–1111d agoLASTRAL8–1312d agoWK2713–81mo agoWHEROIC13–91mo agoWFKOMAR13–51mo agoWEAC13–51mo agoLMetizport2–131mo ago
Phantom on Ancient
WG2 Ares13–41d agoLSINNERS4–139d agoWNemiga13–1118d agoWLeo13–019d agoLAcend17–1923d agoLJiJieHao6–131mo agoWNRG13–71mo agoWlevelONE13–51mo ago
MirageFNA ban54%13-1145%15-18
fnatic on Mirage
LNinjas in Pyjamas10–1310d agoLTeletubisie10–1317d agoLK2713–161mo agoWMetizport13–41mo agoLMetizport6–133mo agoWaimclub13–113mo agoWMinkens finest13–33mo agoWLavked13–114mo ago
Phantom on Mirage
LSINNERS7–139d agoLINFINITE10–1312d agoWOG13–813d agoLNRG10–131mo agoWG2 Ares13–102mo agoLAcend7–133mo agoLDragonClaw10–134mo agoWBushido Wildcats13–94mo ago
CachePHA ban82%9-20%0-2
fnatic on Cache
WNinjas in Pyjamas13–610d agoWBBL13–1111d agoWVirtus.pro13–313d agoWTeletubisie13–817d agoLK2710–131mo agoWFKOMAR13–31mo agoWEAC16–131mo agoWLilmix13–71mo ago
Phantom on Cache
LNemiga11–1318d agoLSashi6–131mo ago
Dust2decider54%15-1348%22-24
fnatic on Dust2
LVirtus.pro11–1313d agoW666613–41mo agoLLiquid10–131mo agoWHOTU13–32mo agoLBRUTE5–132mo agoWSPARTA13–82mo agoWMisa13–112mo agoWAlliance19–173mo ago
Phantom on Dust2
Lex-Zero Tenacity8–1317d agoWNemiga13–518d agoWlevelONE13–41mo agoWlevelONE13–31mo agoLHEROIC11–132mo agoLpaiN8–132mo agoLFOKUS10–133mo agoWWalczaki13–93mo ago
Each team's usual first ban: fnatic Nuke · Phantom Inferno.

Mentality & map flow

comebacks, blown leads
Hover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.

fnatic

Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i39/100 (39%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 100 maps they won, 39 (39%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 39% of their wins were comebacks, not 39% of all games.vs ENCEOverpassfrom 10 downvs MonteOverpassfrom 7 downvs BRUTEAnubisfrom 7 downvs Virtus.proAnubisfrom 7 downvs LavkedMiragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i23/68 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 68 maps they lost, 23 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AllianceInfernoled 6 · lost 13-16vs illwillDust2led 6 · lost 12-16vs Ninjas in PyjamasMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs ENCEAncientled 5 · lost 17-19vs MOUZ NXTAnubisled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ENCEOverpassfrom 10 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AllianceInfernoled 6 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 22Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 22 went to overtime.vs GenOneDust214-16vs AstralisMirage16-12vs K27Dust216-13vs ENCEAncient17-19vs MonteOverpass19-16

Phantom

Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i35/115 (30%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 115 maps they won, 35 (30%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 30% of their wins were comebacks, not 30% of all games.vs G2 AresAncientfrom 9 downvs aAaDust2from 7 downvs HEROICNukefrom 7 downvs RUSTECMiragefrom 6 downvs Bushido WildcatsNukefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i43/117 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 117 maps they lost, 43 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FAVBETAncientled 9 · lost 14-16vs MASONICOverpassled 7 · lost 14-16vs CYBERSHOKEDust2led 7 · lost 26-28vs LeoNukeled 7 · lost 10-13vs WashingtonOverpassled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs G2 AresAncientfrom 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FAVBETAncientled 9 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi43% · 34Close maps (≤3) · OT43% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 34 went to overtime.vs HYPERSPIRITDust212-16vs FAVBETAnubis13-16vs MASONICOverpass14-16vs MASONICNuke14-16vs STATEOverpass13-16

fnatic vs Phantom FAQ

Who is favored to win fnatic vs Phantom?

fnatic are favored with a 75% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.

What are the betting odds for fnatic vs Phantom?

Bookmakers price fnatic at 1.59 and Phantom at 2.23 (implied 58% vs 42%).

When do fnatic and Phantom play?

fnatic vs Phantom is scheduled for 2026-09-23 10:00 UTC at Stake Pulse Beat II.

fnatic vs Phantom Prediction & Odds · CS2 Match Preview · CS2OBSERVER