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Predictions / Lavked vs Saint Sinners · match preview
Lavked vs Saint Sinners: CS2 match prediction · European Pro League Series 9
LAVSAI
Lavked
World #105 · 56-43
VS
TBD
European Pro League Series 9 · Best of 3
Saint Sinners
World #– · 1-4
European Pro League Series 9 · Best of 3
67%33%
66%
1.392.65Market · 2 books
34%The call
Lavked are favoured: our model gives them 67% against Saint Sinners. Bookmakers lean Lavked at 66%. Strength slightly favours Lavked, record clearly favours Lavked, form slightly favours Lavked, firepower clearly favours Lavked.
Likely mapsMirage · Dust2 · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
LavkedpullSaint Sinners
Team strength1518
147160/40 LAV
Track record56–43
1–472/28 LAV
Recent formLWWWL
WLLLL61/39 LAV
Roster rating1.19
1.0490/10 LAV
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 66% for Lavked (1.39 / 2.65) and we land at 67%, the same read. This read is 74% our own signal (237 maps of Lavked, 11 of Saint Sinners).
Bottom line: Lavked to beat Saint Sinners, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsLavked · avg 1.19 · star gap +0.15iStar gap: the best player rates 0.15 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Saint Sinners · avg 1.04 · star gap +0.21iStar gap: the best player rates 0.21 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodos1k★ | 1.14 | 85.1 | 81.5% | 61% | 1.25 |
| Caleyy | 0.96 | 80.1 | 66.7% | 67% | 1.06 |
| pavlysha666 | 0.87 | 74.5 | 71.5% | 49% | 1.06 |
| halfjix | 0.9 | 69.6 | 63.5% | 52% | 0.97 |
| deb0 | 0.8 | 63 | 64.1% | 63% | 0.87 |
Recent form
Lavked
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Map lab
Lavked54%to win the Bo3 · most likely Lavked 2-0
If the veto goes
Lavked 54%how the series ends46% Saint Sinners
29%2-021%
25%2-125%
Lavked60%39-29vsSaint Sinners40%0-2
57%Win0%
56%CT18%
47%T50%
48%Pistol50%
77%Conv50%
Lavked48%22-20vsSaint Sinners52%1-0
52%Win100%
52%CT90%
52%T33%
50%Pistol50%
81%Conv100%
Lavked50%30-20vsSaint Sinners50%2-1
60%Win67%
57%CT56%
47%T52%
47%Pistol50%
85%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
LavkedMirageSaint Sinners
56%CT side18%
47%T side50%
48%Pistol50%
77%After win50%
14%After loss0%
LavkedDust2Saint Sinners
52%CT side90%
52%T side33%
50%Pistol50%
81%After win100%
19%After loss0%
LavkedNukeSaint Sinners
57%CT side56%
47%T side52%
47%Pistol50%
85%After win100%
17%After loss0%
Pistol rounds48% · 50% · level, no edge
After a won pistol80% · 83% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol16% · 0% · Lavked fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Lavked vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Saint Sinners habitually bans Ancient, Lavked's strongest maps (Ancient, Nuke all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Ancient 3/5), not an opponent read, so expect Lavked to fight the veto for Mirage.
MapLAVSAI
InfernoLAV ban20%3-120%0-1
AncientSAI ban65%22-120%0-1
MirageLAV pick57%39-290%0-2
Dust2SAI pick52%22-20100%1-0
AnubisLAV ban47%8-9n/a0g
Lavked on Anubis
W
Black Phoenix13–91mo agoL
CYBERSHOKE Prospects4–132mo agoLK286–132mo agoW
Butterfly13–112mo agoW
ex-RUSTEC13–72mo agoW
MANA13–113mo agoL
1win8–134mo agoW
ASTRAL13–74mo agoSaint Sinners on Anubis
no recent maps
CacheSAI ban0%0-10%0-1
Lavked on Cache
L
megoshort14–162mo agoSaint Sinners on Cache
L
Spirit Academy4–137d agoNukedecider60%30-2067%2-1
Each team's usual first ban: Lavked Inferno · Saint Sinners Cache.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Lavked
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i45/127 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 127 maps they won, 45 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs ASTRALDust2from 8 downvs Black PhoenixMiragefrom 8 downvs ex-RUBYNukefrom 7 downvs OLDBOYS PLMiragefrom 7 downvs UNiTYMiragefrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i28/108 (26%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 108 maps they lost, 28 (26%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs G2 AresOverpassled 10 · lost 13-16vs ARCREDMirageled 8 · lost 10-13vs UNiTYMirageled 8 · lost 7-13vs SPARTAInfernoled 6 · lost 12-16vs fnaticMirageled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ASTRALDust2from 8 down · won 19-15
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs G2 AresOverpassled 10 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 29Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 29 went to overtime.vs ex-RUBYAncient16-14vs ESCAncient13-16vs PhantomMirage16-14vs K27Dust212-16vs QUAZARNuke12-16
Saint Sinners
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/3 (67%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 3 maps they won, 2 (67%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 67% of their wins were comebacks, not 67% of all games.vs PermittaNukefrom 5 downvs PermittaDust2from 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i4/6 (67%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 6 maps they lost, 4 (67%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Spirit AcademyNukeled 5 · lost 14-16vs Spirit AcademyMirageled 5 · lost 7-13vs Spirit AcademyCacheled 3 · lost 4-13vs mellrenInfernoled 3 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs PermittaNukefrom 5 down · won 13-8
Biggest lead blowni5 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Spirit AcademyNukeled 5 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini4.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 2Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 2 went to overtime.vs Spirit AcademyNuke14-16vs mellrenNuke22-20