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Predictions / G2 Ares vs Misa · match preview
G2 Ares vs Misa: CS2 match prediction · European Pro League Series 9
G2 Ares
World #103 · 41-40
VS
2026-09-17 08:00 UTC
European Pro League Series 9 · Best of 3
Misa
World #110 · 37-48
European Pro League Series 9 · Best of 3
64%36%
64%
1.432.57Market · 2 books
36%The call
G2 Ares are favoured: our model gives them 64% against Misa. Bookmakers lean G2 Ares at 64%. Firepower slightly favours G2 Ares, head-to-head clearly favours G2 Ares.
Likely mapsInferno · Dust2 · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
G2 ArespullMisa
Team strength1510
149454/46 G2
Track record41–40
37–4852/48 G2
Recent formWLLWLLWLWW50/50
Roster rating1.07
1.0657/43 G2
Head-to-head4 maps
1 maps71/29 G2
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 64% for G2 Ares (1.43 / 2.57) and we land at 64%, the same read. This read is 98% our own signal (184 maps of G2 Ares, 204 of Misa). Head-to-head they've met 2 times: G2 Ares leads 2–0.
Bottom line: G2 Ares to beat Misa, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsG2 Ares · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Misa · avg 1.06 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
G2 Ares
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents2mo ago
G2 Ares2 : 1
Misa!4mo ago G2 Ares2 : 0 Misa!
G2 Ares2 : 1 Misa!⚠ Different lineup
G2 Ares
outtAk
inTMKj
Misa
outCkanic, Mertowsk1
incyber, h0kz
G2 Ares2 : 0 Misa!⚠ Different lineup
G2 Ares
outtAk
inTMKj
Misa
outCkanic, Mertowsk1, rim3
inEMSTAR, cyber, h0kz
INOX Division#591-20-2
G2 Ares vs INOX Division
Jul 26LDust216-14Anubis12-16Inferno8-13Misa vs INOX Division
Aug 15LAnubis7-13Inferno8-13
9INE#650-22-1
G2 Ares vs 9INE
Aug 29LMirage23-25Anubis11-13Misa vs 9INE
Apr 23WDust29-13Overpass19-17Inferno13-11
EAC#662-01-2
G2 Ares vs EAC
Jul 31WInferno13-6Ancient13-11Misa vs EAC
Aug 14LAnubis13-8Cache14-16Mirage4-13
ex-RUSTEC#670-41-2
Misa vs ex-RUSTEC
Sep 13LInferno16-13Anubis8-13Dust28-13
SAW#711-02-0
G2 Ares vs SAW
May 1WAncient13-7Misa vs SAW
May 27WInferno13-9Mirage16-13
Bushido Wildcats#762-57-4
G2 Ares vs Bushido Wildcats
Sep 6WInferno13-10Dust214-16Anubis16-12Aug 26LInferno6-13Dust211-13Feb 12LMirage6-13Anubis7-13Misa vs Bushido Wildcats
Sep 13WCache11-13Mirage13-7Anubis13-10Sep 12WNuke13-9Cache13-2Aug 18LNuke13-9Anubis7-13+1 earlier meeting
UNiTY#921-40-4
Permitta#1001-40-2
Misa vs Permitta
Aug 27LCache13-16Ancient3-13Map lab
Misa55%to win the Bo3 · most likely Misa 2-1
If the veto goes
G2 Ares 45%how the series ends55% Misa
24%2-026%
21%2-129%
G2 Ares51%20-19vsMisa49%11-11
51%Win50%
54%CT54%
48%T46%
47%Pistol45%
68%Conv70%
G2 Ares47%16-17vsMisa53%26-24
48%Win52%
50%CT51%
47%T52%
50%Pistol49%
61%Conv84%
G2 Ares43%2-5vsMisa57%9-14
29%Win39%
49%CT55%
41%T45%
50%Pistol54%
43%Conv88%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
G2 AresInfernoMisa
54%CT side54%
48%T side46%
47%Pistol45%
68%After win70%
34%After loss25%
G2 AresDust2Misa
50%CT side51%
47%T side52%
50%Pistol49%
61%After win84%
18%After loss22%
G2 AresCacheMisa
49%CT side55%
41%T side45%
50%Pistol54%
43%After win88%
0%After loss14%
Pistol rounds49% · 49% · level, no edge
After a won pistol62% · 82% · Misa keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol25% · 21% · G2 Ares fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, G2 Ares vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapG2 MIS
NukeG2 bann/a0g44%14-18
G2 Ares on Nuke
no recent maps
AncientMIS ban50%14-1433%1-2
InfernoG2 pick51%20-1950%11-11
Dust2MIS pick48%16-1752%26-24
AnubisG2 ban44%7-950%17-17
MirageMIS ban50%21-2145%15-18
Cachedecider29%2-539%9-14
Each team's usual first ban: G2 Ares Nuke · Misa Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
G2 Ares
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i30/90 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 90 maps they won, 30 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs LavkedOverpassfrom 10 downvs AzuolasInfernofrom 8 downvs DONSTUAnubisfrom 7 downvs LilmixAncientfrom 7 downvs BebopDust2from 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i28/94 (30%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 94 maps they lost, 28 (30%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs PhantomAncientled 9 · lost 4-13vs Rune EatersAncientled 8 · lost 5-13vs 9INEMirageled 8 · lost 23-25vs Bushido WildcatsDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs PermittaCacheled 6 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LavkedOverpassfrom 10 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs PhantomAncientled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 33Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 33 went to overtime.vs WWDust219-16vs UNiTYOverpass19-17vs zajezdzaczeDust216-14vs LavkedOverpass16-13vs aAaOverpass19-16
Misa
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i30/95 (32%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 95 maps they won, 30 (32%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 32% of their wins were comebacks, not 32% of all games.vs WBTAnubisfrom 10 downvs ex-MANAInfernofrom 8 downvs ex-MANAInfernofrom 7 downvs Phantom AcademyCachefrom 7 downvs WBTAnubisfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i39/109 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 109 maps they lost, 39 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs EntropyCacheled 9 · lost 11-13vs EntropyCacheled 8 · lost 8-13vs ex-MANAMirageled 7 · lost 10-13vs Young NinjasNukeled 6 · lost 17-19vs eternal premiumInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs WBTAnubisfrom 10 down · won 13-6
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs EntropyCacheled 9 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini4.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi37% · 29Close maps (≤3) · OT37% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 29 went to overtime.vs LPHInferno15-19vs LPHNuke13-16vs 9INEOverpass19-17vs Endless JourneyInferno19-15vs Young NinjasNuke17-19