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Predictions / Misa vs Honvéd · match preview
Misa vs Honvéd: CS2 match prediction · European Pro League Series 9
Misa
World #110 · 38-48
VS
2026-09-21 10:30 UTC
European Pro League Series 9 · Best of 3
Honvéd
World #129 · 29-31
European Pro League Series 9 · Best of 3
61%39%
The call
Misa are favoured: our model gives them 61% against Honvéd. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours Misa, form clearly favours Misa, firepower clearly favours Misa, head-to-head slightly favours Honvéd.
Likely mapsDust2 · Mirage · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
MisapullHonvéd
Team strength1504
145461/39 MIS
Track record38–4829–3150/50
Recent formWLWLW
LLLWL73/27 MIS
Roster rating1.06
0.9976/24 MIS
Head-to-head1 maps
2 maps60/40 HON
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 97% our own signal (207 maps of Misa, 142 of Honvéd). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Honvéd leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Misa to beat Honvéd, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsMisa · avg 1.06 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Honvéd · avg 0.99 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Misa
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
INOX Division#590-20-2
Misa vs INOX Division
Aug 15LAnubis7-13Inferno8-13Honvéd vs INOX Division
Aug 22LAncient4-13Inferno9-13
ex-RUSTEC#671-21-2
Misa vs ex-RUSTEC
Sep 13LInferno16-13Anubis8-13Dust28-13Honvéd vs ex-RUSTEC
Aug 2LDust213-10Anubis2-13Mirage9-13
Bushido Wildcats#767-42-5
Misa vs Bushido Wildcats
Sep 13WCache11-13Mirage13-7Anubis13-10Sep 12WNuke13-9Cache13-2Aug 18LNuke13-9Anubis7-13+1 earlier meeting
Honvéd vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 24LDust26-13Cache10-13Aug 21LDust25-13Cache4-13Aug 19WCache13-6Dust23-13Mirage13-10
G2 Ares#1033-52-1
LAVLavked#1050-20-2
Misa vs Lavked
Jun 9LDust25-13Mirage10-13Honvéd vs Lavked
Sep 16LAnubis9-13Inferno9-13
Inner Circle Academy#1282-22-6
Honvéd vs Inner Circle Academy
Aug 23LAncient7-13Cache11-13Aug 15LAnubis4-13Mirage11-13Jul 5WMirage13-6Nuke13-10+1 earlier meeting
Falcons Force#1311-41-2
Honvéd vs Falcons Force
Aug 20LMirage10-13Ancient13-11Cache8-13
LPH#1331-22-1
Misa vs LPH
Mar 4LMirage13-6Inferno15-19Nuke13-16Honvéd vs LPH
Jul 4WAncient9-13Nuke13-5Dust213-7Map lab
Misa51%to win the Bo3 · most likely Misa 2-1
If the veto goes
Misa 51%how the series ends49% Honvéd
24%2-026%
27%2-123%
Misa52%27-24vsHonvéd48%21-20
53%Win51%
51%CT51%
51%T47%
48%Pistol54%
84%Conv89%
Misa47%15-18vsHonvéd53%18-19
45%Win49%
53%CT55%
45%T41%
55%Pistol57%
75%Conv79%
Misa54%10-14vsHonvéd46%4-7
42%Win36%
56%CT54%
45%T43%
56%Pistol59%
89%Conv92%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
MisaDust2Honvéd
51%CT side51%
51%T side47%
48%Pistol54%
84%After win89%
23%After loss13%
MisaMirageHonvéd
53%CT side55%
45%T side41%
55%Pistol57%
75%After win79%
13%After loss13%
MisaCacheHonvéd
56%CT side54%
45%T side43%
56%Pistol59%
89%After win92%
14%After loss0%
Pistol rounds52% · 56% · Honvéd win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol82% · 85% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol18% · 11% · Misa fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Misa vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapMISHON
AncientMIS ban33%1-253%9-8
NukeHON ban44%14-1860%3-2
Dust2MIS pick53%27-2451%21-20
MirageHON pick45%15-1849%18-19
InfernoMIS ban48%11-1231%5-11
AnubisHON ban50%17-1750%4-4
Each team's usual first ban: Misa Ancient · Honvéd Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Misa
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i32/97 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 97 maps they won, 32 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs WBTAnubisfrom 10 downvs ex-MANAInfernofrom 8 downvs G2 AresDust2from 8 downvs ex-MANAInfernofrom 7 downvs Phantom AcademyCachefrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i40/110 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 110 maps they lost, 40 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs EntropyCacheled 9 · lost 11-13vs G2 AresInfernoled 9 · lost 4-13vs EntropyCacheled 8 · lost 8-13vs ex-MANAMirageled 7 · lost 10-13vs Young NinjasNukeled 6 · lost 17-19
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs WBTAnubisfrom 10 down · won 13-6
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs EntropyCacheled 9 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini4.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi37% · 29Close maps (≤3) · OT37% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 29 went to overtime.vs LPHInferno15-19vs LPHNuke13-16vs 9INEOverpass19-17vs Endless JourneyInferno19-15vs Young NinjasNuke17-19
Honvéd
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i20/64 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 64 maps they won, 20 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs RUSTECDust2from 10 downvs The Last ResortInfernofrom 8 downvs brazylijski luzMiragefrom 6 downvs PrivateerNukefrom 6 downvs Noir VerseDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i26/74 (35%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 74 maps they lost, 26 (35%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs EntropyMirageled 10 · lost 3-13vs BebopCacheled 7 · lost 11-13vs ex-MANADust2led 6 · lost 8-13vs MisaMirageled 6 · lost 8-13vs TeletubisieDust2led 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs RUSTECDust2from 10 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs EntropyMirageled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi37% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT37% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs PUREDust216-14vs brazylijski luzAncient19-17vs TNCAncient15-19vs ex-MANAMirage13-16vs GenOneDust213-16