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Predictions / The Last Resort vs Nexus · match preview
The Last Resort vs Nexus: CS2 match prediction · European Pro League Series 9
The Last Resort
World #127 · 39-31
VS
2026-09-24 08:00 UTC
European Pro League Series 9 · Best of 3
Nexus
World #148 · 17-22
European Pro League Series 9 · Best of 3
54%46%
42%
2.211.61Market · 6 books
58%The call
The Last Resort are favoured: our model gives them 54% against Nexus. Bookmakers lean Nexus at 58%. Strength slightly favours The Last Resort, form slightly favours The Last Resort, firepower clearly favours Nexus.
Likely mapsAncient · Anubis · Inferno
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
The Last ResortpullNexus
Team strength1530
149557/43 THE
Track record39–31
17–2256/44 THE
Recent formWLWWW
LWWLL59/41 THE
Roster rating1.07
1.181/19 NEX
Bookmakers imply 42% for The Last Resort (2.21 / 1.61); we land 12 points higher at 54%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 95% our own signal (168 maps of The Last Resort, 84 of Nexus).
Bottom line: The Last Resort to beat Nexus, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsThe Last Resort · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.05iStar gap: the best player rates 0.05 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Nexus · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
The Last Resort
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Betclic#492-41-2
Nexus vs Betclic
Feb 26LOverpass13-8Anubis11-13Ancient11-13
Phantom#731-20-2
The Last Resort vs Phantom
Apr 27LAncient13-11Mirage8-13Nuke4-13Nexus vs Phantom
Feb 14LOverpass8-13Ancient11-13
OG#780-20-1
The Last Resort vs OG
Aug 19LNuke10-13Dust22-13Nexus vs OG
Mar 13LAncient4-13
BASEMENT BOYS#971-20-1
The Last Resort vs BASEMENT BOYS
Jul 7LAncient13-5Dust26-13Nuke11-13Nexus vs BASEMENT BOYS
Mar 29LAnubis8-13
G2 Ares#1132-00-2
The Last Resort vs G2 Ares
Sep 4WInferno13-9Cache19-17Nexus vs G2 Ares
Aug 17LAnubis11-13Inferno15-19EX-ex-RUBY#1152-01-2
The Last Resort vs ex-RUBY
Mar 18WNuke13-3Mirage13-11Nexus vs ex-RUBY
Feb 16LAncient9-13Mirage13-4Dust23-13
MOUZ NXT#1452-00-1
The Last Resort vs MOUZ NXT
Sep 7WAnubis13-11Ancient13-6Nexus vs MOUZ NXT
Mar 24LDust28-13
Entropy#1532-02-0
The Last Resort vs Entropy
Jun 3WAncient13-6Overpass13-7Nexus vs Entropy
Sep 19WMirage13-11Anubis13-10Map lab
The Last Resort62%to win the Bo3 · most likely The Last Resort 2-0
If the veto goes
The Last Resort 62%how the series ends38% Nexus
39%2-014%
23%2-124%
The Last Resort60%18-15vsNexus40%6-8
55%Win43%
56%CT49%
46%T51%
42%Pistol54%
75%Conv73%
The Last Resort64%10-6vsNexus36%7-8
63%Win47%
55%CT49%
50%T55%
44%Pistol50%
71%Conv100%
The Last Resort50%13-10vsNexus50%8-6
57%Win57%
54%CT49%
50%T50%
59%Pistol54%
78%Conv67%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
The Last ResortAncientNexus
56%CT side49%
46%T side51%
42%Pistol54%
75%After win73%
26%After loss8%
The Last ResortAnubisNexus
55%CT side49%
50%T side55%
44%Pistol50%
71%After win100%
17%After loss27%
The Last ResortInfernoNexus
54%CT side49%
50%T side50%
59%Pistol54%
78%After win67%
37%After loss8%
Pistol rounds48% · 52% · Nexus win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol75% · 80% · Nexus keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol27% · 15% · The Last Resort fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, The Last Resort vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapTHENEX
MirageTHE ban29%5-1260%6-4
NukeNEX ban55%21-170%0-1
AncientTHE pick55%18-1543%6-8
AnubisNEX pick63%10-647%7-8
Dust2THE ban42%5-733%5-10
CacheNEX ban75%6-233%2-4
Infernodecider57%13-1057%8-6
Each team's usual first ban: The Last Resort Dust2 · Nexus Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
The Last Resort
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i28/89 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 89 maps they won, 28 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs CTRLAncientfrom 9 downvs QUAZARNukefrom 8 downvs LilmixMiragefrom 6 downvs Rune EatersAncientfrom 6 downvs BetclicCachefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i26/79 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 79 maps they lost, 26 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SINNERSDust2led 11 · lost 2-13vs QUAZARAnubisled 10 · lost 10-13vs CTRLMirageled 9 · lost 11-13vs HonvédInfernoled 8 · lost 11-13vs HEROIC AcademyInfernoled 6 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs CTRLAncientfrom 9 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SINNERSDust2led 11 · lost 2-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs FuzosOverpass16-13vs BUFF3D UPNuke16-13vs CTRLAncient16-14vs Rune EatersAnubis14-16vs HEROIC AcademyInferno14-16
Nexus
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i6/38 (16%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 38 maps they won, 6 (16%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 16% of their wins were comebacks, not 16% of all games.vs PUREInfernofrom 5 downvs AllianceAnubisfrom 5 downvs PUREAnubisfrom 4 downvs GamersLabDust2from 4 downvs AllianceInfernofrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i17/45 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 45 maps they lost, 17 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Bushido WildcatsInfernoled 9 · lost 4-13vs PUREMirageled 7 · lost 12-16vs kONODust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs ex-RUSTECDust2led 6 · lost 9-13vs Inner CircleAncientled 5 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs PUREInfernofrom 5 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Bushido WildcatsInfernoled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 7Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 7 went to overtime.vs Lazer CatsAncient15-19vs AllianceInferno16-14vs aimclubInferno16-14vs Inner CircleAncient14-16vs PUREMirage12-16