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Predictions / Alliance vs SINNERS · match preview
Alliance vs SINNERS: CS2 match prediction · 1win Private Club Season 1
Alliance
World #21 · 56-25
VS
2026-09-25 09:00 UTC
1win Private Club Season 1 · Best of 3 · ★
SINNERS
World #45 · 45-35
1win Private Club Season 1 · Best of 3 · ★
56%44%
56%
1.652.1Market · 1 books
44%The call
Alliance are favoured: our model gives them 56% against SINNERS. Bookmakers lean Alliance at 56%. Strength slightly favours Alliance, record slightly favours Alliance, form slightly favours Alliance, firepower clearly favours SINNERS.
Likely mapsInferno · Dust2 · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
AlliancepullSINNERS
Team strength1664
161261/39 ALL
Track record56–25
45–3558/42 ALL
Recent formLWWLW
LLWLW63/37 ALL
Roster rating1.12
1.1186/14 SIN
Head-to-head2 maps2 maps50/50
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 56% for Alliance (1.65 / 2.1) and we land at 56%, the same read. This read is 98% our own signal (173 maps of Alliance, 172 of SINNERS). Head-to-head they've met 2 times: split 1–1.
Bottom line: Alliance to beat SINNERS, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsAlliance · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
SINNERS · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Alliance
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents7mo ago
Alliance2 : 0 SINNERS!7mo ago Alliance0 : 2 SINNERS!
Alliance2 : 0 SINNERS!⚠ Different lineup
Alliance
outMaiL09
inbobeksde
Alliance0 : 2 SINNERS!⚠ Different lineup
Alliance
outMaiL09
inbobeksde
FaZe#132-20-2
SINNERS vs FaZe
Jul 3LMirage7-13Ancient2-13
9z#143-20-1
SINNERS vs 9z
Jul 2LDust25-13
magic#172-01-2
Alliance vs magic
Sep 10WAncient16-13Inferno13-7SINNERS vs magic
Feb 3LAncient10-13Mirage13-7Dust28-13
GamerLegion#202-02-4
Alliance vs GamerLegion
Mar 27WAnubis16-14Inferno13-7SINNERS vs GamerLegion
May 12LMirage13-10Inferno9-13Nuke8-13Feb 24LNuke7-13Inferno14-16Feb 22WMirage19-16
BIG#250-22-2
Alliance vs BIG
Jan 24LDust26-13Ancient11-13
Ninjas in Pyjamas#291-22-1
SINNERS vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Sep 9WDust213-3Nuke11-13Ancient13-7
TYLOO#312-00-2
Alliance vs TYLOO
Sep 10WInferno13-11Ancient13-11SINNERS vs TYLOO
Jun 3LAncient14-16Inferno10-13
fnatic#424-12-0
SINNERS vs fnatic
Feb 12WDust213-10Overpass13-3Map lab
Alliance68%to win the Bo3 · most likely Alliance 2-0
If the veto goes
Alliance 68%how the series ends32% SINNERS
42%2-011%
26%2-121%
Alliance76%30-12vsSINNERS24%9-12
71%Win43%
55%CT54%
56%T45%
54%Pistol50%
78%Conv70%
Alliance56%13-7vsSINNERS44%21-15
65%Win58%
53%CT51%
53%T54%
65%Pistol50%
88%Conv78%
Alliance55%15-10vsSINNERS45%17-14
60%Win55%
57%CT50%
47%T52%
48%Pistol56%
88%Conv69%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
AllianceInfernoSINNERS
55%CT side54%
56%T side45%
54%Pistol50%
78%After win70%
23%After loss14%
AllianceDust2SINNERS
53%CT side51%
53%T side54%
65%Pistol50%
88%After win78%
14%After loss20%
AllianceAncientSINNERS
57%CT side50%
47%T side52%
48%Pistol56%
88%After win69%
31%After loss15%
Pistol rounds55% · 52% · Alliance win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol83% · 73% · Alliance keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol24% · 17% · Alliance fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Alliance vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
SINNERS habitually bans Anubis, Alliance's strongest maps (Ancient, Dust2, Inferno, Anubis all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Anubis 78/80), not an opponent read, so expect Alliance to fight the veto for Inferno.
MapALLSIN
MirageALL ban0%0-260%21-14
AnubisSIN ban66%19-10n/a0g
Alliance on Anubis
L
Metizport5–133mo agoWfnatic13–43mo agoL
Nexus9–133mo agoL
Sharks13–164mo agoW
3DMAX13–84mo agoLFaZe8–134mo agoL
Nuclear TigeRES7–134mo agoW
Oxuji13–75mo agoSINNERS on Anubis
no recent maps
InfernoALL pick71%30-1243%9-12
Dust2SIN pick65%13-758%21-15
CacheALL ban0%0-142%5-7
NukeSIN ban53%16-1439%9-14
Ancientdecider60%15-1055%17-14
Each team's usual first ban: Alliance Mirage · SINNERS Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Alliance
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i28/106 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 106 maps they won, 28 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs TYLOOAncientfrom 8 downvs UNiTYOverpassfrom 6 downvs fnaticInfernofrom 6 downvs 3DMAXInfernofrom 6 downvs 9zDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/66 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 66 maps they lost, 21 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs 9INEAnubisled 8 · lost 15-19vs UNiTYAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs SharksNukeled 6 · lost 11-13vs VP.ProdigyAnubisled 5 · lost 14-16vs EYEBALLERSInfernoled 5 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs TYLOOAncientfrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs 9INEAnubisled 8 · lost 15-19
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 22Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 22 went to overtime.vs MetizportNuke19-17vs PhantomOverpass19-17vs WHITEBIRDInferno13-16vs VP.ProdigyAnubis14-16vs kONOAnubis16-13
SINNERS
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i29/93 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 93 maps they won, 29 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs The Last ResortDust2from 11 downvs 1winDust2from 6 downvs ECSTATICMiragefrom 6 downvs Rune EatersDust2from 6 downvs Johnny SpeedsMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i23/79 (29%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 79 maps they lost, 23 (29%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Gentle MatesInfernoled 8 · lost 17-19vs TrickedMirageled 6 · lost 13-16vs FOKUSAncientled 6 · lost 13-16vs Ninjas in PyjamasNukeled 6 · lost 11-13vs SpiritMirageled 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs The Last ResortDust2from 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Gentle MatesInfernoled 8 · lost 17-19
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi39% · 22Close maps (≤3) · OT39% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 22 went to overtime.vs GenOneNuke14-16vs AcendAncient16-14vs GamerLegionMirage19-16vs GamerLegionInferno14-16vs ECSTATICAncient22-20