Predictions
Confident picks
Today
Predictions / Vitality vs FURIA · match preview
Vitality vs FURIA: CS2 match prediction · StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026
Vitality
World #5 · 42-11
VS
2026-09-18 17:30 UTC
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★★★
FURIA
World #4 · 35-24
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★★★
73%27%
68%
1.393Market · 26 books
32%The call · high confidence
Vitality are favoured: our model gives them 73% against FURIA. Bookmakers lean Vitality at 68%. Strength slightly favours Vitality, record clearly favours Vitality, firepower slightly favours Vitality, head-to-head clearly favours Vitality.
Likely mapsDust2 · Inferno · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
VitalitypullFURIA
Team strength1740
165368/32 VIT
Track record42–11
35–2471/29 VIT
Recent formWLWWW
WLLWW56/44 VIT
Roster rating1.18
1.162/38 VIT
Head-to-head7 maps
2 maps73/27 VIT
Bookmakers imply 68% for Vitality (1.39 / 3); we land 5 points higher at 73%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 96% our own signal (127 maps of Vitality, 152 of FURIA). Head-to-head they've met 3 times: Vitality leads 3–0.
Bottom line: Vitality to beat FURIA, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsVitality · avg 1.18 · star gap +0.25iStar gap: the best player rates 0.25 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
FURIA · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents14d ago
Vitality2 : 1 FURIA!5mo ago Vitality2 : 0 FURIA◆ same lineup7mo ago Vitality3 : 1 FURIA◆ same lineup
Vitality2 : 1 FURIA!⚠ Different lineup
Vitality
outjL
inmezii
Vitality2 : 0 FURIA◆ same lineup7mo ago Vitality3 : 1 FURIA◆ same lineup
Spirit#14-23-5
Falcons#23-63-11
MOUZ#36-34-1
Vitality vs MOUZ
Sep 5LDust211-13Mirage7-13Jun 13WMirage13-9Dust27-13Inferno13-4Feb 16WDust213-5Inferno13-8+1 earlier meeting
Legacy#62-11-4
Vitality vs Legacy
Aug 30WNuke16-14Mirage9-13Dust213-8
FUT#76-25-6
G2#86-32-3
Aurora#96-06-3
Vitality vs Aurora
Mar 28WInferno13-5Nuke13-5Feb 20WInferno13-8Overpass13-10Feb 3WAncient25-22Overpass13-7FURIA vs Aurora
Aug 19WAncient13-11Nuke14-16Mirage13-9Jun 20WDust213-9Nuke13-4Mar 20LDust214-16Inferno6-13+1 earlier meeting
Natus Vincere#109-24-2
Vitality vs Natus Vincere
May 16LDust213-11Anubis11-13Inferno3-13May 3WNuke16-12Anubis13-11Dust213-3Apr 17WMirage13-4Dust213-6+1 earlier meeting
Map lab
Vitality81%to win the Bo3 · most likely Vitality 2-0
If the veto goes
Vitality 81%how the series ends19% FURIA
53%2-07%
27%2-112%
Vitality74%26-6vsFURIA26%19-14
81%Win58%
63%CT52%
61%T55%
52%Pistol52%
82%Conv85%
Vitality72%14-4vsFURIA28%12-10
78%Win55%
61%CT56%
51%T47%
53%Pistol55%
79%Conv71%
Vitality69%16-4vsFURIA31%14-9
80%Win61%
74%CT58%
40%T52%
60%Pistol48%
79%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
VitalityDust2FURIA
63%CT side52%
61%T side55%
52%Pistol52%
82%After win85%
39%After loss9%
VitalityInfernoFURIA
61%CT side56%
51%T side47%
53%Pistol55%
79%After win71%
41%After loss15%
VitalityNukeFURIA
74%CT side58%
40%T side52%
60%Pistol48%
79%After win100%
50%After loss13%
Pistol rounds54% · 51% · Vitality win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol80% · 85% · FURIA keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol42% · 12% · Vitality fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Vitality vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
FURIA habitually bans Ancient, Vitality's strongest maps (Overpass, Dust2, Inferno, Mirage, Ancient, Nuke, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Ancient 45/59), not an opponent read, so expect Vitality to fight the veto for Dust2.
MapVITFUR
AncientVIT ban100%2-044%4-5
AnubisFUR ban46%6-743%3-4
Dust2VIT pick81%26-658%19-14
InfernoFUR pick78%14-455%12-10
MirageVIT ban61%14-956%20-16
CacheFUR ban67%2-143%3-4
Nukedecider80%16-461%14-9
Each team's usual first ban: Vitality Ancient · FURIA Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Vitality
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i28/95 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 95 maps they won, 28 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs Lynn VisionDust2from 12 downvs Natus VincereNukefrom 11 downvs LegacyNukefrom 8 downvs 9zNukefrom 7 downvs FURIAOverpassfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i14/32 (44%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 32 maps they lost, 14 (44%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FURIAMirageled 7 · lost 11-13vs FalconsMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs B8Infernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs Inner CircleCacheled 6 · lost 13-16vs LegacyMirageled 5 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 12 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Lynn VisionDust2from 12 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FURIAMirageled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi37% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT37% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs EYEBALLERSAnubis19-16vs AuroraAncient25-22vs The MongolZMirage16-13vs PARIVISIONInferno16-13vs The MongolZOverpass16-13
FURIA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i22/83 (27%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 83 maps they won, 22 (27%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 27% of their wins were comebacks, not 27% of all games.vs G2Ancientfrom 10 downvs VitalityMiragefrom 7 downvs The MongolZDust2from 7 downvs Natus VincereNukefrom 7 downvs AuroraMiragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i23/69 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 69 maps they lost, 23 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs G2Anubisled 10 · lost 3-13vs AuroraDust2led 6 · lost 14-16vs FalconsNukeled 6 · lost 10-13vs VitalityOverpassled 6 · lost 10-13vs SpiritMirageled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs G2Ancientfrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs G2Anubisled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 19Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 19 went to overtime.vs The MongolZInferno16-12vs SpiritMirage16-13vs FUTOverpass22-18vs FalconsMirage16-14vs PARIVISIONDust216-14