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Predictions / ALKA vs Turma do Pagode · match preview
ALKA vs Turma do Pagode: CS2 match prediction · Circuit X Curitiba Fall 2026
ALKA
World #123 · 22-21
VS
2026-09-16 13:00 UTC
Circuit X Curitiba Fall 2026 · Best of 3
Turma do Pagode
World #124 · 12-7
Circuit X Curitiba Fall 2026 · Best of 3
45%55%
37%
2.491.46Market · 2 books
63%The call
Turma do Pagode are favoured: our model gives them 55% against ALKA. Bookmakers lean Turma do Pagode at 63%. Firepower clearly favours Turma do Pagode, head-to-head slightly favours Turma do Pagode.
Likely mapsDust2 · Ancient · Inferno
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
ALKApullTurma do Pagode
Team strength1559
155252/48 ALK
Track record22–21
12–755/45 TUR
Recent formLWLWW
LLWWW53/47 ALK
Roster rating1.08
1.0987/13 TUR
Head-to-head1 maps
2 maps60/40 TUR
Bookmakers imply 37% for ALKA (2.49 / 1.46); we land 8 points higher at 45%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 91% our own signal (98 maps of ALKA, 44 of Turma do Pagode). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Turma do Pagode leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Turma do Pagode to beat ALKA, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsALKA · avg 1.08 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bnc★ | 1.05 | 78.8 | 71.8% | 52% | 1.16 |
| proSHOW | 1.16 | 73.6 | 72.4% | 34% | 1.14 |
| cerolzin | 1.01 | 72.6 | 71.3% | 49% | 1.1 |
| vinaabEAST | 1 | 75.8 | 71% | 56% | 1.08 |
| puni | 0.79 | 62.6 | 69% | 58% | 0.9 |
Turma do Pagode · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.17iStar gap: the best player rates 0.17 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
ALKA
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
ShindeN#800-21-2
ALKA vs ShindeN
Aug 25LAncient7-13Dust211-13Turma do Pagode vs ShindeN
Sep 10LAncient9-13Dust216-13Nuke14-16
Galorys#950-22-1
ALKA vs Galorys
Sep 6LAncient10-13Dust21-13Turma do Pagode vs Galorys
May 11WDust213-9Nuke7-13Ancient13-7QUIQUINTESSÊNCIA#1592-11-0
ALKA vs QUINTESSÊNCIA
Aug 17WCache11-13Ancient13-5Mirage13-7Turma do Pagode vs QUINTESSÊNCIA
Apr 24WAncient13-11
Keyd Stars#1640-41-0
Turma do Pagode vs Keyd Stars
Apr 25WAnubis13-11
BESTIA Academy#1804-02-0
Turma do Pagode vs BESTIA Academy
May 7WAncient13-10Overpass13-7
METANOIA Wolves#2250-20-1
ALKA vs METANOIA Wolves
Apr 23LNuke9-13Dust27-13Turma do Pagode vs METANOIA Wolves
Apr 24LDust216-19Map lab
Turma do Pagode52%to win the Bo3 · most likely Turma do Pagode 2-0
If the veto goes
ALKA 48%how the series ends52% Turma do Pagode
14%2-038%
34%2-114%
ALKA41%14-11vsTurma do Pagode59%8-4
56%Win67%
54%CT58%
50%T50%
44%Pistol58%
73%Conv64%
ALKA35%9-9vsTurma do Pagode65%10-5
50%Win67%
49%CT63%
50%T49%
53%Pistol67%
79%Conv95%
ALKA71%8-3vsTurma do Pagode29%1-3
73%Win25%
65%CT47%
42%T40%
50%Pistol63%
73%Conv40%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
ALKADust2Turma do Pagode
54%CT side58%
50%T side50%
44%Pistol58%
73%After win64%
21%After loss30%
ALKAAncientTurma do Pagode
49%CT side63%
50%T side49%
53%Pistol67%
79%After win95%
18%After loss10%
ALKAInfernoTurma do Pagode
65%CT side47%
42%T side40%
50%Pistol63%
73%After win40%
45%After loss0%
Pistol rounds48% · 63% · Turma do Pagode win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol75% · 77% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol25% · 17% · ALKA fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, ALKA vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapALKTUR
AnubisALK ban0%0-667%2-1
MirageTUR ban58%7-550%1-1
Dust2ALK pick56%14-1167%8-4
AncientTUR pick50%9-967%10-5
CacheALK ban50%3-3100%1-0
ALKA on Cache
L
ODDIK1–1319d agoLQUINTESSÊNCIA11–131mo agoW
paiN Academy13–71mo agoWBESTIA13–81mo agoWUNO MILLE13–91mo agoL
GameHunters13–162mo agoTurma do Pagode on Cache
W
Yawara13–99d agoNukeTUR ban42%8-110%0-4
ALKA on Nuke
WPugdesonesto13–1121d agoWBORRACHEIROS16–131mo agoWpaiN Academy16–131mo agoL
Imperial9–131mo agoLGameHunters7–132mo agoWBORRACHEIROS13–102mo agoLImperial11–132mo agoLUNO MILLE6–134mo agoTurma do Pagode on Nuke
LShindeN14–166d agoLGalorys7–134mo agoL
Bounty Hunters6–134mo agoLBounty Hunters7–135mo agoInfernodecider73%8-325%1-3
Each team's usual first ban: ALKA Anubis · Turma do Pagode Mirage.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
ALKA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i18/50 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 50 maps they won, 18 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs paiN AcademyNukefrom 9 downvs ProcyonAncientfrom 8 downvs BORRACHEIROSNukefrom 7 downvs PugdesonestoAncientfrom 7 downvs Red FeetDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i11/48 (23%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 48 maps they lost, 11 (23%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ShindeNDust2led 8 · lost 11-13vs PugdesonestoAncientled 6 · lost 10-13vs CrashersNukeled 4 · lost 8-13vs Keyd StarsAnubisled 4 · lost 11-13vs 9zDust2led 4 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs paiN AcademyNukefrom 9 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ShindeNDust2led 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi28% · 7Close maps (≤3) · OT28% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 7 went to overtime.vs GameHuntersCache13-16vs paiN AcademyNuke16-13vs paiN AcademyMirage19-16vs BORRACHEIROSNuke16-13vs BESTIAAncient15-19
Turma do Pagode
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i6/25 (24%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 25 maps they won, 6 (24%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 24% of their wins were comebacks, not 24% of all games.vs Bounty HuntersAncientfrom 8 downvs IsurusAncientfrom 7 downvs Bounty HuntersDust2from 4 downvs Bounty HuntersAnubisfrom 4 downvs BESTIA AcademyAncientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i6/19 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 19 maps they lost, 6 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs DENDELEAncientled 5 · lost 12-16vs Bounty HuntersNukeled 4 · lost 7-13vs ex-MIBR AcademyAncientled 4 · lost 8-13vs ShindeNNukeled 4 · lost 14-16vs IsurusAncientled 3 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Bounty HuntersAncientfrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni5 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs DENDELEAncientled 5 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini4.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi39% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT39% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs METANOIA WolvesDust216-19vs YawaraAncient14-16vs IsurusInferno16-14vs DENDELEAncient12-16vs ShindeNDust216-13