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Predictions / Fluxo vs Bounty Hunters · match preview
Fluxo vs Bounty Hunters: CS2 match prediction · Circuit X Curitiba Season 3
Fluxo
World #61 · 41-35
VS
2026-09-19 18:00 UTC
Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · Best of 3
Bounty Hunters
World #138 · 53-45
Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · Best of 3
71%29%
67%
1.372.84Market · 4 books
33%The call · high confidence
Fluxo are favoured: our model gives them 71% against Bounty Hunters. Bookmakers lean Fluxo at 67%. Strength slightly favours Fluxo, firepower clearly favours Fluxo, head-to-head slightly favours Fluxo.
Likely mapsNuke · Mirage · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
FluxopullBounty Hunters
Team strength1625
157960/40 FLU
Track record41–3553–4550/50
Recent formWWLLW
WWLWL52/48 BOU
Roster rating1.12
1.0992/8 FLU
Head-to-head7 maps
4 maps62/38 FLU
Bookmakers imply 67% for Fluxo (1.37 / 2.84); we land 4 points higher at 71%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 98% our own signal (178 maps of Fluxo, 229 of Bounty Hunters). Head-to-head they've met 4 times: Fluxo leads 3–1.
Bottom line: Fluxo to beat Bounty Hunters, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsFluxo · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Bounty Hunters · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Fluxo
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents2mo ago
Fluxo2 : 1
Bounty Hunters!2mo ago Fluxo2 : 0 Bounty Hunters!2mo ago Fluxo1 : 2 Bounty Hunters!6mo ago Fluxo2 : 1 Bounty Hunters!
Fluxo2 : 1 Bounty Hunters!⚠ Different lineup
Bounty Hunters
outfREQ
inurban0
Fluxo2 : 0 Bounty Hunters!⚠ Different lineup
Bounty Hunters
outfREQ
inurban0
Fluxo1 : 2 Bounty Hunters!⚠ Different lineup
Bounty Hunters
outfREQ
inurban0
Fluxo2 : 1 Bounty Hunters!⚠ Different lineup
Fluxo
outLucaozy, mlhzin
inLtz, dav1deuS
Bounty Hunters
outfREQ
inurban0
9z#141-20-2
Fluxo vs 9z
Feb 28LDust213-11Inferno7-13Nuke10-13Bounty Hunters vs 9z
Feb 14LDust27-13Ancient10-13
MIBR#180-20-4
Fluxo vs MIBR
Jul 28LNuke10-13Inferno8-13
paiN#272-31-2
Bounty Hunters vs paiN
Mar 27LMirage13-11Nuke4-13Dust28-13
Imperial#6210-611-14
Fluxo vs Imperial
Sep 12WAnubis13-11Inferno16-14Jul 31WDust25-13Inferno13-9Nuke13-8Jul 20WNuke17-19Cache16-13Dust219-17Mirage3-13Anubis13-11+2 earlier meetings
Bounty Hunters vs Imperial
Sep 17LMirage6-13Cache13-8Nuke4-13Sep 6WMirage10-13Nuke13-11Dust213-8Sep 5LCache6-13Dust210-13+6 earlier meetings
ShindeN#8010-106-2
Fluxo vs ShindeN
Sep 17LInferno8-13Mirage13-8Nuke11-13Sep 12WMirage13-5Inferno10-13Cache13-3Sep 9WNuke1-13Cache13-11Mirage13-6+5 earlier meetings
Bounty Hunters vs ShindeN
Jul 16WNuke13-5Mirage13-10May 1WAncient6-13Mirage13-5Nuke13-6Apr 2WMirage10-13Nuke13-4Dust213-9
BESTIA#900-61-2
Bounty Hunters vs BESTIA
May 29LDust213-5Nuke2-13Mirage4-13
Galorys#950-69-9
Bounty Hunters vs Galorys
Sep 18WCache10-13Ancient13-11Sep 6LNuke2-13Ancient4-13Aug 26LCache8-13Ancient10-13+5 earlier meetings
LP#1015-35-5
Map lab
Bounty Hunters56%to win the Bo3 · most likely Bounty Hunters 2-1
If the veto goes
Fluxo 44%how the series ends56% Bounty Hunters
23%2-027%
21%2-129%
Fluxo42%27-24vsBounty Hunters58%30-19
53%Win61%
59%CT60%
46%T46%
55%Pistol50%
79%Conv90%
Fluxo54%17-11vsBounty Hunters46%28-22
61%Win56%
62%CT57%
46%T47%
52%Pistol51%
71%Conv76%
Fluxo42%5-5vsBounty Hunters58%10-7
50%Win59%
50%CT51%
51%T53%
70%Pistol59%
79%Conv75%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
FluxoNukeBounty Hunters
59%CT side60%
46%T side46%
55%Pistol50%
79%After win90%
15%After loss14%
FluxoMirageBounty Hunters
62%CT side57%
46%T side47%
52%Pistol51%
71%After win76%
15%After loss14%
FluxoCacheBounty Hunters
50%CT side51%
51%T side53%
70%Pistol59%
79%After win75%
17%After loss14%
Pistol rounds56% · 52% · Fluxo win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol77% · 82% · Bounty Hunters keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol15% · 14% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Fluxo vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapFLUBOU
AncientFLU ban18%2-955%24-20
InfernoBOU ban54%14-12n/a0g
Fluxo on Inferno
WpaiN13–51d agoLShindeN8–132d agoWImperial16–147d agoLShindeN10–137d agoWShindeN13–520d agoWPEAK13–1025d agoL
fnatic10–131mo agoW
DUSTY13–111mo agoBounty Hunters on Inferno
no recent maps
NukeFLU pick53%27-2461%30-19
MirageBOU pick61%17-1156%28-22
AnubisFLU ban53%10-943%6-8
Dust2BOU ban56%18-1443%20-27
Each team's usual first ban: Fluxo Overpass · Bounty Hunters Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Fluxo
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i25/93 (27%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 93 maps they won, 25 (27%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 27% of their wins were comebacks, not 27% of all games.vs Back to BackNukefrom 9 downvs Keyd StarsNukefrom 8 downvs EHISTO BASENukefrom 7 downvs paiN AcademyNukefrom 6 downvs MarsborneAncientfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/84 (25%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 84 maps they lost, 21 (25%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs paiN AcademyAnubisled 12 · lost 1-13vs LPInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13vs SharksNukeled 6 · lost 10-13vs GalorysNukeled 6 · lost 7-13vs GameHuntersMirageled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Back to BackNukefrom 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni12 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs paiN AcademyAnubisled 12 · lost 1-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi26% · 16Close maps (≤3) · OT26% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 16 went to overtime.vs ShindeNAncient14-16vs ODDIKAncient18-22vs ODDIKDust222-18vs SAWAnubis22-20vs Keyd StarsNuke13-16
Bounty Hunters
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i38/121 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 121 maps they won, 38 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs YawaraNukefrom 8 downvs MIBR AcademyNukefrom 6 downvs FOLHA AMARELANukefrom 5 downvs paiNMiragefrom 5 downvs Keyd StarsMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i34/108 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 108 maps they lost, 34 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Turma do PagodeAncientled 8 · lost 11-13vs LPCacheled 7 · lost 10-13vs MIBRAnubisled 6 · lost 16-19vs MIBR AcademyAncientled 6 · lost 10-13vs Keyd StarsAncientled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs YawaraNukefrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Turma do PagodeAncientled 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs VascoMirage13-16vs ImperialNuke19-17vs R2Nuke14-16vs YawaraMirage14-16vs CrashersAncient16-14