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Predictions / your end vs RUSH · match preview
your end vs RUSH: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Challengers South America Series 3
YOU
your end
World #– · 1-1
VS
2026-09-19 21:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Challengers South America Series 3 · Best of 3
RUSH
World #– · 1-2
CCT 2026 Challengers South America Series 3 · Best of 3
55%45%
39%
2.351.49Market · 4 books
61%The call
your end are favoured: our model gives them 55% against RUSH. Bookmakers lean RUSH at 61%. Record slightly favours your end, firepower clearly favours your end.
Likely mapsAnubis · Mirage · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
your endpullRUSH
Team strength1503
149153/47 YOU
Track record1–1
1–263/37 YOU
Recent formWLWLL50/50
Roster rating1.06
1.2692/8 YOU
Bookmakers imply 39% for your end (2.35 / 1.49); we land 16 points higher at 55%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 63% our own signal (6 maps of your end, 6 of RUSH; thin sample, treat it as a lean, not a lock).
Bottom line: your end to beat RUSH, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsyour end · avg 1.06 · star gap +0.14iStar gap: the best player rates 0.14 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
RUSH · avg 1.26 · star gap +0.26iStar gap: the best player rates 0.26 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Map lab
your end50%to win the Bo3 · most likely your end 2-0
If the veto goes
your end 50%how the series ends50% RUSH
25%2-025%
25%2-125%
your end50%1-0thinRUSH50%0-0
100%Win–
75%CT–
44%T–
50%Pistol–
100%Conv–
your end50%0-0thinRUSH50%1-1
–Win50%
–CT69%
–T33%
–Pistol100%
–Conv50%
your end50%0-2thinRUSH50%0-0
0%Win–
37%CT–
42%T–
25%Pistol–
100%Conv–
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
your endAnubisRUSH
75%CT side–
44%T side–
50%Pistol–
100%After win–
0%After loss–
your endMirageRUSH
–CT side69%
–T side33%
–Pistol100%
–After win50%
–After loss–
your endDust2RUSH
37%CT side–
42%T side–
25%Pistol–
100%After win–
0%After loss–
Pistol rounds33% · 100% · RUSH win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol100% · 50% · your end keep the momentum more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, your end vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapYOURUS
CacheYOU bann/a0g100%1-0
your end on Cache
no recent maps
RUSH on Cache
WSementes do Mal13–7todayInfernoRUS ban100%1-0n/a0g
your end on Inferno
WUnderworld13–7todayRUSH on Inferno
no recent maps
AnubisYOU pick100%1-0n/a0g
your end on Anubis
W
Turma do Pagode13–813d agoRUSH on Anubis
no recent maps
MirageRUS pickn/a0g50%1-1
your end on Mirage
no recent maps
NukeYOU bann/a0g0%0-2
your end on Nuke
no recent maps
AncientRUS ban50%1-10%0-1
RUSH on Ancient
L
ShindeN7–132mo agoDust2decider0%0-2n/a0g
RUSH on Dust2
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: your end Nuke · RUSH Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
your end
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/3 (67%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 3 maps they won, 2 (67%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 67% of their wins were comebacks, not 67% of all games.vs UnderworldAncientfrom 6 downvs UnderworldInfernofrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i2/3 (67%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 3 maps they lost, 2 (67%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs UnderworldDust2led 4 · lost 11-13vs Turma do PagodeDust2led 3 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs UnderworldAncientfrom 6 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs UnderworldDust2led 4 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample
RUSH
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/2 (50%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 2 maps they won, 1 (50%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 50% of their wins were comebacks, not 50% of all games.vs Sementes do MalMiragefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i1/4 (25%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 4 maps they lost, 1 (25%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ShindeNNukeled 3 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 3 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Sementes do MalMiragefrom 3 down · won 13-8
Biggest lead blowni3 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ShindeNNukeled 3 · lost 8-13
Avg map margini6.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi0% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT0% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample