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Predictions / Bounty Hunters vs Keyd Stars · match preview
Bounty Hunters vs Keyd Stars: CS2 match prediction · FERJEE In House Season 2
Bounty Hunters
World #138 · 53-45
VS
2026-09-23 13:00 UTC
FERJEE In House Season 2 · Best of 3
Keyd Stars
World #164 · 44-45
FERJEE In House Season 2 · Best of 3
65%35%
The call
Bounty Hunters are favoured: our model gives them 65% against Keyd Stars. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours Bounty Hunters, form clearly favours Bounty Hunters, firepower clearly favours Keyd Stars, head-to-head slightly favours Bounty Hunters.
Likely mapsNuke · Mirage · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Bounty HunterspullKeyd Stars
Team strength1579
151065/35 BOU
Track record53–45
44–4554/46 BOU
Recent formWWLWL
LLLWL77/23 BOU
Roster rating1.09
1.0473/27 KEY
Head-to-head15 maps
6 maps70/30 BOU
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 98% our own signal (229 maps of Bounty Hunters, 203 of Keyd Stars). Head-to-head they've met 9 times: Bounty Hunters leads 7–2.
Bottom line: Bounty Hunters to beat Keyd Stars, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBounty Hunters · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Keyd Stars · avg 1.04 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Bounty Hunters
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents2mo ago
Bounty Hunters2 : 1
Keyd Stars!2mo ago Bounty Hunters1 : 2 Keyd Stars!2mo ago Bounty Hunters2 : 0 Keyd Stars!4mo ago Bounty Hunters2 : 0 Keyd Stars!4mo ago Bounty Hunters2 : 1 Keyd Stars!5mo ago Bounty Hunters2 : 0 Keyd Stars!6mo ago Bounty Hunters13 : 2 Keyd Stars!6mo ago Bounty Hunters2 : 0 Keyd Stars!7mo ago Bounty Hunters1 : 2 Keyd Stars!
Bounty Hunters2 : 1 Keyd Stars!⚠ Different lineup
Bounty Hunters
outfREQ
inurban0
Keyd Stars
outmatios
inf4stzin
Bounty Hunters1 : 2 Keyd Stars!⚠ Different lineup
Bounty Hunters
outfREQ
inurban0
Keyd Stars
outmatios
inf4stzin
Bounty Hunters2 : 0 Keyd Stars!⚠ Different lineup
Bounty Hunters
outfREQ
inurban0
Keyd Stars
outmatios
inf4stzin
Bounty Hunters2 : 0 Keyd Stars!⚠ Different lineup
Bounty Hunters
outfREQ
inurban0
Keyd Stars
outCutzMeretz, matios
inckzao, f4stzin
Bounty Hunters2 : 1 Keyd Stars!⚠ Different lineup
Bounty Hunters
outfREQ
inurban0
Keyd Stars
outCutzMeretz, matios
inckzao, f4stzin
Bounty Hunters2 : 0 Keyd Stars!⚠ Different lineup
Bounty Hunters
outfREQ
inurban0
Keyd Stars
outCutzMeretz, matios
inckzao, f4stzin
Bounty Hunters13 : 2 Keyd Stars!⚠ Different lineup
Bounty Hunters
outfREQ
inurban0
Keyd Stars
outCutzMeretz, matios, t9rnay
inckzao, f4stzin, zede
Bounty Hunters2 : 0 Keyd Stars!⚠ Different lineup
Bounty Hunters
outfREQ
inurban0
Keyd Stars
outCutzMeretz, matios, t9rnay
inckzao, f4stzin, zede
Bounty Hunters1 : 2 Keyd Stars!⚠ Different lineup
Bounty Hunters
outfREQ
inurban0
Keyd Stars
outCutzMeretz, danoco, matios, t9rnay
inckzao, f4stzin, xureba, zede
9z#140-20-4
Bounty Hunters vs 9z
Feb 14LDust27-13Ancient10-13
Fluxo#614-72-8
Bounty Hunters vs Fluxo
Jul 30LCache7-13Dust213-6Nuke4-13Jul 18LNuke4-13Dust213-16Jul 9WMirage7-13Anubis13-10Nuke13-10+1 earlier meeting
Keyd Stars vs Fluxo
Aug 26LMirage4-13Nuke12-16Jul 25LNuke9-13Mirage6-13Jun 27LMirage7-13Nuke9-13+2 earlier meetings
Imperial#6211-142-5
Bounty Hunters vs Imperial
Sep 17LMirage6-13Cache13-8Nuke4-13Sep 6WMirage10-13Nuke13-11Dust213-8Sep 5LCache6-13Dust210-13+6 earlier meetings
ShindeN#806-20-2
Bounty Hunters vs ShindeN
Jul 16WNuke13-5Mirage13-10May 1WAncient6-13Mirage13-5Nuke13-6Apr 2WMirage10-13Nuke13-4Dust213-9Keyd Stars vs ShindeN
Mar 24LDust210-13Overpass6-13
BESTIA#901-20-2
Bounty Hunters vs BESTIA
May 29LDust213-5Nuke2-13Mirage4-13Keyd Stars vs BESTIA
Jul 12LAncient11-13Dust29-13
Galorys#959-94-7
Bounty Hunters vs Galorys
Sep 18WCache10-13Ancient13-11Sep 6LNuke2-13Ancient4-13Aug 26LCache8-13Ancient10-13+5 earlier meetings
Keyd Stars vs Galorys
Aug 15WDust213-7Ancient11-13Anubis13-7Aug 10LDust210-13Ancient8-13May 17WDust213-11Ancient13-2+2 earlier meetings
LP#1015-50-2
Bounty Hunters vs LP
Jul 28LNuke13-5Ancient10-13Cache10-13May 24WMirage13-6Overpass13-10Mar 4WDust26-13Ancient13-8Mirage13-9+1 earlier meeting
Keyd Stars vs LP
May 24LDust22-13Nuke4-13
ODDIK#1132-83-3
Bounty Hunters vs ODDIK
Jul 24LDust28-13Cache13-8Mirage1-13Mar 21LNuke11-13Dust25-13Jan 31LAncient13-11Anubis11-13Overpass4-13+1 earlier meeting
Map lab
Bounty Hunters58%to win the Bo3 · most likely Bounty Hunters 2-0
If the veto goes
Bounty Hunters 58%how the series ends42% Keyd Stars
36%2-014%
21%2-128%
Bounty Hunters70%30-19vsKeyd Stars30%14-22
61%Win39%
60%CT48%
46%T43%
50%Pistol44%
90%Conv88%
Bounty Hunters52%28-22vsKeyd Stars48%26-22
56%Win54%
57%CT54%
47%T48%
51%Pistol48%
76%Conv87%
Bounty Hunters43%20-27vsKeyd Stars57%27-27
43%Win50%
49%CT52%
46%T50%
51%Pistol55%
73%Conv80%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Bounty HuntersNukeKeyd Stars
60%CT side48%
46%T side43%
50%Pistol44%
90%After win88%
14%After loss5%
Bounty HuntersMirageKeyd Stars
57%CT side54%
47%T side48%
51%Pistol48%
76%After win87%
14%After loss18%
Bounty HuntersDust2Keyd Stars
49%CT side52%
46%T side50%
51%Pistol55%
73%After win80%
13%After loss24%
Pistol rounds51% · 50% · level, no edge
After a won pistol80% · 84% · Keyd Stars keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol14% · 17% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Bounty Hunters vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapBOUKEY
InfernoBOU bann/a0g17%1-5
Bounty Hunters on Inferno
no recent maps
CacheKEY ban59%10-70%0-1
NukeBOU pick61%30-1939%14-22
MirageKEY pick56%28-2254%26-22
AnubisBOU ban43%6-862%8-5
AncientKEY ban55%24-2058%19-14
Dust2decider43%20-2750%27-27
Each team's usual first ban: Bounty Hunters Inferno · Keyd Stars Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Bounty Hunters
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i38/121 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 121 maps they won, 38 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs YawaraNukefrom 8 downvs MIBR AcademyNukefrom 6 downvs FOLHA AMARELANukefrom 5 downvs paiNMiragefrom 5 downvs Keyd StarsMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i34/108 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 108 maps they lost, 34 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Turma do PagodeAncientled 8 · lost 11-13vs LPCacheled 7 · lost 10-13vs MIBRAnubisled 6 · lost 16-19vs MIBR AcademyAncientled 6 · lost 10-13vs Keyd StarsAncientled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs YawaraNukefrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Turma do PagodeAncientled 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs VascoMirage13-16vs ImperialNuke19-17vs R2Nuke14-16vs YawaraMirage14-16vs CrashersAncient16-14
Keyd Stars
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i26/99 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 99 maps they won, 26 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs ex-KRÜNukefrom 7 downvs Bounty HuntersAncientfrom 6 downvs FOLHA AMARELANukefrom 5 downvs ODDIKNukefrom 5 downvs R2Dust2from 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i35/104 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 104 maps they lost, 35 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FluxoNukeled 8 · lost 12-16vs YawaraDust2led 6 · lost 9-13vs MIBR AcademyMirageled 6 · lost 11-13vs Fake do BiruDust2led 6 · lost 10-13vs UNO MILLENukeled 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ex-KRÜNukefrom 7 down · won 19-15
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FluxoNukeled 8 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs SharksMirage13-16vs 9zDust214-16vs ex-KRÜNuke19-15vs GalorysDust219-22vs MIBR AcademyMirage16-19