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Predictions / paiN vs Bounty Hunters · match preview
paiN vs Bounty Hunters: CS2 match prediction · FERJEE In House Season 2
paiN
World #28 · 29-31
VS
2026-09-24 13:00 UTC
FERJEE In House Season 2 · Best of 3
Bounty Hunters
World #95 · 56-46
FERJEE In House Season 2 · Best of 3
48%52%
67%
1.382.86Market · 9 books
33%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 48–52. Bookmakers lean paiN at 67%. Strength slightly favours Bounty Hunters, form slightly favours Bounty Hunters, firepower clearly favours Bounty Hunters, head-to-head slightly favours paiN.
Likely mapsNuke · Mirage · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
paiNpullBounty Hunters
Team strength1565
160358/42 BOU
Track record29–31
56–4655/45 BOU
Recent formWLWLL
WWLWW58/42 BOU
Roster rating1.05
1.0981/19 BOU
Head-to-head2 maps
1 maps60/40 PAI
Bookmakers imply 67% for paiN (1.38 / 2.86); we land 19 points lower at 48%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (139 maps of paiN, 237 of Bounty Hunters). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: paiN leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Bounty Hunters to beat paiN, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingspaiN · avg 1.05 · star gap +0.14iStar gap: the best player rates 0.14 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Bounty Hunters · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
paiN
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
9z#161-30-2
Bounty Hunters vs 9z
Feb 14LDust27-13Ancient10-13
Fluxo#593-26-7
Bounty Hunters vs Fluxo
Sep 19WAnubis13-9Cache16-14Jul 30LCache7-13Dust213-6Nuke4-13Jul 18LNuke4-13Dust213-16+2 earlier meetings
Imperial#621-211-14
paiN vs Imperial
Sep 11LInferno9-13Dust213-9Mirage10-13Bounty Hunters vs Imperial
Sep 17LMirage6-13Cache13-8Nuke4-13Sep 6WMirage10-13Nuke13-11Dust213-8Sep 5LCache6-13Dust210-13+6 earlier meetings
ShindeN#684-36-2
Galorys#882-19-9
paiN vs Galorys
Apr 1WNuke16-13Overpass6-13Mirage13-5Bounty Hunters vs Galorys
Sep 18WCache10-13Ancient13-11Sep 6LNuke2-13Ancient4-13Aug 26LCache8-13Ancient10-13+5 earlier meetings
LP#992-15-5
paiN vs LP
Jul 10WInferno13-2Dust26-13Nuke13-9Bounty Hunters vs LP
Jul 28LNuke13-5Ancient10-13Cache10-13May 24WMirage13-6Overpass13-10Mar 4WDust26-13Ancient13-8Mirage13-9+1 earlier meeting
Turma do Pagode#1054-02-6
Bounty Hunters vs Turma do Pagode
Aug 27LAncient11-13Mirage4-13May 9LNuke13-6Anubis9-13Dust29-13May 2LNuke13-7Dust210-13Overpass11-13
METANOIA Wolves#2262-02-4
paiN vs METANOIA Wolves
Jul 9WInferno13-4Dust213-4Bounty Hunters vs METANOIA Wolves
May 4WAnubis13-4Ancient13-7Mar 25LDust26-13Mirage11-13Mar 21LDust210-13Nuke17-19Map lab
paiN51%to win the Bo3 · most likely paiN 2-1
If the veto goes
paiN 51%how the series ends49% Bounty Hunters
24%2-026%
27%2-123%
paiN53%23-13vsBounty Hunters47%30-19
64%Win61%
56%CT60%
53%T46%
44%Pistol50%
72%Conv90%
paiN45%14-13vsBounty Hunters55%30-23
52%Win57%
58%CT58%
43%T47%
50%Pistol50%
89%Conv75%
paiN54%12-14vsBounty Hunters46%20-27
46%Win43%
51%CT49%
46%T46%
52%Pistol51%
89%Conv73%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
paiNNukeBounty Hunters
56%CT side60%
53%T side46%
44%Pistol50%
72%After win90%
23%After loss14%
paiNMirageBounty Hunters
58%CT side58%
43%T side47%
50%Pistol50%
89%After win75%
26%After loss15%
paiNDust2Bounty Hunters
51%CT side49%
46%T side46%
52%Pistol51%
89%After win73%
20%After loss13%
Pistol rounds48% · 50% · level, no edge
After a won pistol83% · 79% · paiN keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol23% · 14% · paiN fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, paiN vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapPAIBOU
AncientPAI bann/a0g56%25-20
paiN on Ancient
no recent maps
InfernoBOU ban40%8-12n/a0g
paiN on Inferno
LFluxo5–135d agoLShindeN6–1312d agoLImperial9–1312d agoL
The MongolZ4–131mo agoL
Wildcard12–161mo agoL
Astralis17–192mo agoW
Gentle Mates13–112mo agoL
3DMAX4–132mo agoBounty Hunters on Inferno
no recent maps
NukePAI pick64%23-1361%30-19
MirageBOU pick52%14-1357%30-23
CachePAI ban0%0-660%12-8
AnubisBOU ban64%7-447%7-8
Each team's usual first ban: paiN Ancient · Bounty Hunters Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
paiN
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i15/68 (22%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 68 maps they won, 15 (22%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 22% of their wins were comebacks, not 22% of all games.vs ShindeNMiragefrom 8 downvs Ninjas in PyjamasMiragefrom 5 downvs Turma do PagodeAnubisfrom 5 downvs G2Miragefrom 4 downvs DASHInfernofrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i23/71 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 71 maps they lost, 23 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Natus VincereMirageled 8 · lost 11-13vs FaZeDust2led 6 · lost 13-16vs Bounty HuntersMirageled 5 · lost 11-13vs Gaimin GladiatorsOverpassled 5 · lost 11-13vs WildcardInfernoled 5 · lost 12-16
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ShindeNMiragefrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Natus VincereMirageled 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs HEROICMirage14-16vs B8Dust216-12vs 3DMAXInferno16-14vs PARIVISIONMirage15-19vs G2Inferno16-14
Bounty Hunters
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i40/127 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 127 maps they won, 40 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs YawaraNukefrom 8 downvs MIBR AcademyNukefrom 6 downvs FOLHA AMARELANukefrom 5 downvs paiNMiragefrom 5 downvs Keyd StarsMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i34/110 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 110 maps they lost, 34 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Turma do PagodeAncientled 8 · lost 11-13vs LPCacheled 7 · lost 10-13vs MIBRAnubisled 6 · lost 16-19vs MIBR AcademyAncientled 6 · lost 10-13vs Keyd StarsAncientled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs YawaraNukefrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Turma do PagodeAncientled 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 21Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 21 went to overtime.vs VascoMirage13-16vs ImperialNuke19-17vs R2Nuke14-16vs YawaraMirage14-16vs CrashersAncient16-14