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Predictions / Turma do Pagode vs Keyd Stars · match preview
Turma do Pagode vs Keyd Stars: CS2 match prediction · FERJEE In House Season 2
Turma do Pagode
World #105 · 15-10
VS
2026-09-24 16:30 UTC
FERJEE In House Season 2 · Best of 3
Keyd Stars
World #183 · 45-46
FERJEE In House Season 2 · Best of 3
65%35%
54%
1.722.02Market · 2 books
46%The call
Turma do Pagode are favoured: our model gives them 65% against Keyd Stars. Bookmakers lean Turma do Pagode at 54%. Strength slightly favours Turma do Pagode, form slightly favours Turma do Pagode, firepower slightly favours Turma do Pagode, head-to-head slightly favours Turma do Pagode.
Likely mapsAncient · Dust2 · Anubis
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Turma do PagodepullKeyd Stars
Team strength1551
151059/41 TUR
Track record15–10
45–4656/44 TUR
Recent formLWLWL
LWLLL57/43 TUR
Roster rating1.1
1.0957/43 TUR
Head-to-head1 maps
0 maps67/33 TUR
Bookmakers imply 54% for Turma do Pagode (1.72 / 2.02); we land 11 points higher at 65%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 93% our own signal (58 maps of Turma do Pagode, 207 of Keyd Stars). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Turma do Pagode leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Turma do Pagode to beat Keyd Stars, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsTurma do Pagode · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.15iStar gap: the best player rates 0.15 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Keyd Stars · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Turma do Pagode
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
ShindeN#682-40-2
Keyd Stars vs ShindeN
Mar 24LDust210-13Overpass6-13
Galorys#882-14-7
Turma do Pagode vs Galorys
May 11WDust213-9Nuke7-13Ancient13-7Keyd Stars vs Galorys
Aug 15WDust213-7Ancient11-13Anubis13-7Aug 10LDust210-13Ancient8-13May 17WDust213-11Ancient13-2+2 earlier meetings
Bounty Hunters#956-26-17
Turma do Pagode vs Bounty Hunters
Aug 27WAncient13-11Mirage13-4May 9WNuke6-13Anubis13-9Dust213-9May 2WNuke7-13Dust213-10Overpass13-11Keyd Stars vs Bounty Hunters
Sep 23LAncient5-13Mirage7-13Jul 15LAncient13-7Nuke11-13Mirage14-16Jul 11WAncient13-11Nuke8-13Mirage13-7+7 earlier meetings
LP#992-00-2
Turma do Pagode vs LP
May 8WAncient13-4Dust213-5Keyd Stars vs LP
May 24LDust22-13Nuke4-13
ALKA#1226-24-0
Isurus#1583-45-3
Yawara#1683-312-7
Turma do Pagode vs Yawara
Sep 7WCache13-9Ancient14-16Dust213-7May 10LOverpass2-13Ancient13-10Dust211-13Keyd Stars vs Yawara
Aug 25WDust211-13Ancient13-7Mirage13-8Aug 13WAncient13-11Dust210-13Mirage13-4Jul 9WMirage13-7Ancient4-13Anubis13-9+4 earlier meetings
BESTIA Academy#2042-02-0
Turma do Pagode vs BESTIA Academy
May 7WAncient13-10Overpass13-7Keyd Stars vs BESTIA Academy
Apr 29WDust213-11Mirage13-7Map lab
Turma do Pagode53%to win the Bo3 · most likely Turma do Pagode 2-0
If the veto goes
Turma do Pagode 53%how the series ends47% Keyd Stars
35%2-016%
18%2-131%
Turma do Pagode65%13-5vsKeyd Stars35%19-15
72%Win56%
64%CT56%
48%T48%
64%Pistol49%
96%Conv79%
Turma do Pagode54%10-8vsKeyd Stars46%28-27
56%Win51%
54%CT52%
50%T50%
44%Pistol54%
69%Conv80%
Turma do Pagode36%2-3vsKeyd Stars64%8-5
40%Win62%
49%CT57%
42%T47%
60%Pistol58%
83%Conv87%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Turma do PagodeAncientKeyd Stars
64%CT side56%
48%T side48%
64%Pistol49%
96%After win79%
23%After loss20%
Turma do PagodeDust2Keyd Stars
54%CT side52%
50%T side50%
44%Pistol54%
69%After win80%
30%After loss24%
Turma do PagodeAnubisKeyd Stars
49%CT side57%
42%T side47%
60%Pistol58%
83%After win87%
25%After loss18%
Pistol rounds55% · 52% · Turma do Pagode win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol84% · 80% · Turma do Pagode keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol27% · 22% · Turma do Pagode fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Turma do Pagode vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapTURKEY
MirageTUR ban50%1-153%26-23
InfernoKEY ban40%2-329%2-5
AncientTUR pick72%13-556%19-15
Dust2KEY pick56%10-851%28-27
NukeTUR ban17%1-539%14-22
CacheKEY ban100%1-00%0-1
Turma do Pagode on Cache
WYawara13–916d agoKeyd Stars on Cache
LBounty Hunters9–133mo agoAnubisdecider40%2-362%8-5
Turma do Pagode on Anubis
L
paiN10–13todayLpaiN6–137d agoLyour end8–1318d agoWBounty Hunters13–95mo agoW
Keyd Stars13–115mo agoEach team's usual first ban: Turma do Pagode Mirage · Keyd Stars Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Turma do Pagode
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i9/32 (28%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 32 maps they won, 9 (28%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 28% of their wins were comebacks, not 28% of all games.vs Bounty HuntersAncientfrom 8 downvs MEIA NOITEDust2from 8 downvs IsurusAncientfrom 7 downvs ALKAAncientfrom 5 downvs ALKAAncientfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i8/26 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 26 maps they lost, 8 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ALKADust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs DENDELEAncientled 5 · lost 12-16vs paiNAnubisled 5 · lost 10-13vs Bounty HuntersNukeled 4 · lost 7-13vs ex-MIBR AcademyAncientled 4 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Bounty HuntersAncientfrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ALKADust2led 6 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini4.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi43% · 7Close maps (≤3) · OT43% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 7 went to overtime.vs METANOIA WolvesDust216-19vs YawaraAncient14-16vs IsurusInferno16-14vs DENDELEAncient12-16vs ShindeNDust216-13
Keyd Stars
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i28/101 (28%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 101 maps they won, 28 (28%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 28% of their wins were comebacks, not 28% of all games.vs ex-KRÜNukefrom 7 downvs Bounty HuntersAncientfrom 6 downvs FOLHA AMARELANukefrom 5 downvs ODDIKNukefrom 5 downvs R2Dust2from 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i36/106 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 106 maps they lost, 36 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FluxoNukeled 8 · lost 12-16vs YawaraDust2led 6 · lost 9-13vs MIBR AcademyMirageled 6 · lost 11-13vs Fake do BiruDust2led 6 · lost 10-13vs UNO MILLENukeled 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ex-KRÜNukefrom 7 down · won 19-15
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FluxoNukeled 8 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs SharksMirage13-16vs 9zDust214-16vs ex-KRÜNuke19-15vs GalorysDust219-22vs MIBR AcademyMirage16-19