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Predictions / Rare Atom vs XDM · match preview
Rare Atom vs XDM: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2
Rare Atom
World #102 · 30-23
VS
2026-09-24 13:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · Best of 3
XDM
World #220 · 5-9
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · Best of 3
69%31%
The call · high confidence
Rare Atom are favoured: our model gives them 69% against XDM. No odds yet. Strength clearly favours Rare Atom, record slightly favours Rare Atom, head-to-head slightly favours Rare Atom.
Likely mapsDust2 · Inferno · Mirage
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Rare AtompullXDM
Team strength1596
148573/27 RAR
Track record30–23
5–960/40 RAR
Recent formWLLLWLWLWL50/50
Roster rating1.14
1.0853/47 XDM
Head-to-head2 maps
1 maps60/40 RAR
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 89% our own signal (133 maps of Rare Atom, 35 of XDM). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Rare Atom leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Rare Atom to beat XDM, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsRare Atom · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.15iStar gap: the best player rates 0.15 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChildKing★ | 1.17 | 84.8 | 73.6% | 61% | 1.29 |
| 3gl | 1.14 | 68.4 | 75.1% | 38% | 1.14 |
| L1haNg | 1.02 | 81.8 | 74.7% | 57% | 1.14 |
| kaze | 1.2 | 74.4 | 71.9% | 48% | 1.09 |
| Summer | 0.95 | 71.9 | 72.3% | 53% | 1.06 |
XDM · avg 1.08 · star gap +0.17iStar gap: the best player rates 0.17 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| r1verLaKe★ | 1.33 | 81.1 | 73.3% | 39% | 1.25 |
| Shad0w | 1.04 | 79.7 | 71.1% | 54% | 1.11 |
| darkk | 0.99 | 78 | 70.2% | 53% | 1.1 |
| Kungao | 0.96 | 70 | 70.3% | 60% | 1.07 |
| rubeN | 0.79 | 61.1 | 66.8% | 44% | 0.86 |
Recent form
Rare Atom
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
5star#313-62-1
The Huns#1568-42-6
Rare Atom vs The Huns
Sep 1WDust213-7Inferno9-13Mirage13-10Aug 28WCache6-13Dust216-14Mirage22-19Aug 22WCache13-0Mirage13-3+2 earlier meetings
Chinggis Warriors#1602-40-2
XDM vs Chinggis Warriors
Aug 26LMirage8-13Nuke10-13
Nas#1742-01-2
Rare Atom vs Nas
Sep 23WDust213-6Cache13-9XDM vs Nas
Aug 27LNuke13-7Mirage14-16Ancient5-13
Just Swing#1797-22-0
Rare Atom vs Just Swing
Aug 31WDust213-0Ancient16-14Aug 26WAncient13-7Dust213-8Apr 26LDust213-9Anubis14-16Inferno10-13+1 earlier meeting
XDM vs Just Swing
Mar 29WAnubis13-5Dust213-10
SemperFi2-00-1
Rare Atom vs SemperFi
Apr 4WAncient13-11Mirage13-10XDM vs SemperFi
Mar 28LMirage3-13Map lab
Rare Atom52%to win the Bo3 · most likely Rare Atom 2-1
If the veto goes
Rare Atom 52%how the series ends48% XDM
18%2-031%
34%2-116%
Rare Atom52%22-16vsXDM48%4-3
58%Win57%
56%CT47%
52%T56%
62%Pistol64%
85%Conv78%
Rare Atom35%12-10vsXDM65%4-1
55%Win80%
65%CT47%
45%T64%
59%Pistol70%
92%Conv86%
Rare Atom68%8-12vsXDM32%2-8
40%Win20%
48%CT49%
45%T41%
48%Pistol70%
84%Conv79%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Rare AtomDust2XDM
56%CT side47%
52%T side56%
62%Pistol64%
85%After win78%
34%After loss0%
Rare AtomInfernoXDM
65%CT side47%
45%T side64%
59%Pistol70%
92%After win86%
6%After loss67%
Rare AtomMirageXDM
48%CT side49%
45%T side41%
48%Pistol70%
84%After win79%
10%After loss0%
Pistol rounds58% · 68% · XDM win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol87% · 80% · Rare Atom keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol19% · 14% · Rare Atom fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Rare Atom vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapRARXDM
NukeRAR bann/a0g50%2-2
Rare Atom on Nuke
no recent maps
CacheXDM ban78%7-20%0-1
Dust2RAR pick58%22-1657%4-3
InfernoXDM pick55%12-1080%4-1
AnubisRAR ban40%4-6100%1-0
AncientXDM ban62%16-1033%2-4
Miragedecider40%8-1220%2-8
Each team's usual first ban: Rare Atom Nuke · XDM Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Rare Atom
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i17/70 (24%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 70 maps they won, 17 (24%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 24% of their wins were comebacks, not 24% of all games.vs NasDust2from 10 downvs URAncientfrom 6 downvs Just SwingMiragefrom 6 downvs Just SwingDust2from 5 downvs Last BulletMiragefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i20/59 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 59 maps they lost, 20 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MorningstarDust2led 7 · lost 12-16vs URDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs JiJieHaoMirageled 6 · lost 11-13vs NEXVOIDInfernoled 6 · lost 10-13vs Lynn VisionAncientled 5 · lost 16-19
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs NasDust2from 10 down · won 13-6
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MorningstarDust2led 7 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs URAncient19-17vs TYLOOInferno17-19vs Lynn VisionAncient19-17vs The HunsDust213-16vs Alter EgoMirage14-16
XDM
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i5/16 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 16 maps they won, 5 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs The HunsInfernofrom 6 downvs Just SwingDust2from 4 downvs UnitronicsDust2from 3 downvs 5starInfernofrom 3 downvs NasNukefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i9/19 (47%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 19 maps they lost, 9 (47%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs The HunsDust2led 7 · lost 11-13vs The HunsAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs PATSANVISIONMirageled 5 · lost 11-13vs Chinggis WarriorsMirageled 4 · lost 8-13vs Chinggis WarriorsNukeled 4 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs The HunsInfernofrom 6 down · won 13-7
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs The HunsDust2led 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 2Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 2 went to overtime.vs The HunsMirage19-22vs NasMirage14-16