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Predictions / Procyon vs ALKA · match preview
Procyon vs ALKA: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2
Procyon
World #182 · 22-38
VS
2026-09-22 21:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · Best of 3
ALKA
World #123 · 22-23
ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · Best of 3
44%56%
The call
ALKA are favoured: our model gives them 56% against Procyon. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours ALKA, record slightly favours ALKA, form clearly favours Procyon, firepower clearly favours Procyon, head-to-head clearly favours ALKA.
Likely mapsDust2 · Nuke · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
ProcyonpullALKA
Team strength1469
153564/36 ALK
Track record22–38
22–2357/43 ALK
Recent formLWWWL
LLLWL73/27 PRO
Roster rating1.07
1.0795/5 PRO
Head-to-head0 maps
4 maps83/17 ALK
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 96% our own signal (136 maps of Procyon, 103 of ALKA). Head-to-head they've met 2 times: ALKA leads 2–0.
Bottom line: ALKA to beat Procyon, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsProcyon · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
ALKA · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bnc★ | 1.02 | 78.2 | 71% | 53% | 1.14 |
| proSHOW | 1.14 | 73.2 | 71.9% | 34% | 1.14 |
| cerolzin | 1.01 | 72.5 | 71.1% | 49% | 1.1 |
| vinaabEAST | 0.97 | 75.4 | 70.6% | 57% | 1.06 |
| puni | 0.78 | 62 | 68.4% | 57% | 0.89 |
Recent form
Procyon
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Imperial#620-21-6
Procyon vs Imperial
Aug 3LMirage9-13Nuke3-13
ShindeN#802-80-2
Procyon vs ShindeN
Apr 27LDust213-8Nuke8-13Inferno11-13Mar 14LDust211-13Inferno4-13Mar 1LDust213-11Inferno9-13Nuke7-13+1 earlier meeting
ALKA vs ShindeN
Aug 25LAncient7-13Dust211-13
Marsborne#910-40-2
ALKA vs Marsborne
Apr 1LAnubis4-13Nuke11-13
Galorys#950-30-2
ALKA vs Galorys
Sep 6LAncient10-13Dust21-13
ODDIK#1130-20-2
Procyon vs ODDIK
Jul 17LDust25-13Anubis11-13ALKA vs ODDIK
Aug 28LMirage1-13Cache1-13
Keyd Stars#1642-00-4
Procyon vs Keyd Stars
Sep 4WAncient13-11Inferno16-14
BESTIA Academy#1801-64-0
Procyon vs BESTIA Academy
May 17LNuke5-13Mirage4-13Apr 5LNuke7-13Inferno11-13Feb 10LNuke13-11Mirage4-13Dust212-16
Grêmio#1901-22-1
Procyon vs Grêmio
Aug 9LNuke13-5Dust210-13Inferno2-13ALKA vs Grêmio
Jul 19WInferno10-13Dust213-5Ancient13-11Map lab
ALKA59%to win the Bo3 · most likely ALKA 2-0
If the veto goes
Procyon 41%how the series ends59% ALKA
16%2-035%
24%2-124%
Procyon36%16-24vsALKA64%15-12
40%Win56%
51%CT53%
47%T49%
50%Pistol44%
83%Conv71%
Procyon46%8-13vsALKA54%8-11
38%Win42%
50%CT53%
46%T42%
52%Pistol37%
91%Conv93%
Procyon50%0-0thinALKA50%3-3
–Win50%
–CT48%
–T54%
–Pistol58%
–Conv86%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
ProcyonDust2ALKA
51%CT side53%
47%T side49%
50%Pistol44%
83%After win71%
20%After loss20%
ProcyonNukeALKA
50%CT side53%
46%T side42%
52%Pistol37%
91%After win93%
10%After loss17%
ProcyonCacheALKA
–CT side48%
–T side54%
–Pistol58%
–After win86%
–After loss40%
Pistol rounds51% · 43% · Procyon win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol85% · 80% · Procyon keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol17% · 20% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Procyon vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapPROALK
AncientPRO ban57%4-345%9-11
AnubisALK ban57%4-30%0-6
Dust2PRO pick40%16-2456%15-12
NukeALK pick38%8-1342%8-11
MiragePRO ban36%8-1458%7-5
InfernoALK ban48%15-1667%8-4
Cachedecidern/a0g50%3-3
Procyon on Cache
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: Procyon Ancient · ALKA Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Procyon
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i12/57 (21%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 57 maps they won, 12 (21%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 21% of their wins were comebacks, not 21% of all games.vs Red FeetAncientfrom 8 downvs LUNADust2from 6 downvs UNO MILLEOverpassfrom 6 downvs ShindeNDust2from 5 downvs GUARAMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i22/79 (28%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 79 maps they lost, 22 (28%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ALKAAncientled 8 · lost 5-13vs FOLHA AMARELADust2led 6 · lost 8-13vs IsurusInfernoled 6 · lost 13-16vs MAGICOSAnubisled 6 · lost 8-13vs GameHuntersNukeled 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Red FeetAncientfrom 8 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ALKAAncientled 8 · lost 5-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi25% · 11Close maps (≤3) · OT25% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 11 went to overtime.vs BESTIA AcademyDust212-16vs ex-KRÜNuke19-15vs ShindeNDust214-16vs UNO MILLEDust217-19vs UNO MILLEInferno13-16
ALKA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i19/51 (37%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 51 maps they won, 19 (37%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 37% of their wins were comebacks, not 37% of all games.vs paiN AcademyNukefrom 9 downvs ProcyonAncientfrom 8 downvs BORRACHEIROSNukefrom 7 downvs PugdesonestoAncientfrom 7 downvs Red FeetDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i13/52 (25%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 52 maps they lost, 13 (25%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ShindeNDust2led 8 · lost 11-13vs PugdesonestoAncientled 6 · lost 10-13vs Turma do PagodeAncientled 5 · lost 10-13vs Turma do PagodeAncientled 5 · lost 12-16vs CrashersNukeled 4 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs paiN AcademyNukefrom 9 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ShindeNDust2led 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi28% · 8Close maps (≤3) · OT28% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 8 went to overtime.vs GameHuntersCache13-16vs paiN AcademyNuke16-13vs paiN AcademyMirage19-16vs BORRACHEIROSNuke16-13vs BESTIAAncient15-19