Predictions
Confident picks
Today
Predictions / METANOIA Wolves vs Keyd Stars · match preview
METANOIA Wolves vs Keyd Stars: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2
METANOIA Wolves
World #226 · 14-30
VS
2026-09-23 21:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · Best of 3
Keyd Stars
World #183 · 45-46
ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · Best of 3
32%68%
17%
5.361.12Market · 6 books
83%The call
Keyd Stars are favoured: our model gives them 68% against METANOIA Wolves. Bookmakers lean Keyd Stars at 83%. Strength clearly favours Keyd Stars, record slightly favours Keyd Stars, form slightly favours METANOIA Wolves, firepower slightly favours Keyd Stars.
Likely mapsDust2 · Ancient · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
METANOIA WolvespullKeyd Stars
Team strength1382
151075/25 KEY
Track record14–30
45–4662/38 KEY
Recent formWLLLW
LWLLL57/43 MET
Roster rating0.99
1.0967/33 KEY
Head-to-head3 maps
4 maps56/44 KEY
Bookmakers imply 17% for METANOIA Wolves (5.36 / 1.12); we land 15 points higher at 32%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 96% our own signal (101 maps of METANOIA Wolves, 207 of Keyd Stars). Head-to-head they've met 3 times: Keyd Stars leads 2–1.
Bottom line: Keyd Stars to beat METANOIA Wolves, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsMETANOIA Wolves · avg 0.99 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALENNNCAR★ | 1.02 | 72 | 69.2% | 35% | 1.08 |
| spinnie | 0.94 | 74.8 | 66.8% | 60% | 1.08 |
| vzn | 0.84 | 70.2 | 66.9% | 47% | 0.96 |
| khowy | 0.8 | 60.5 | 69.8% | 64% | 0.94 |
| Tineu | 0.78 | 61.8 | 63.9% | 46% | 0.89 |
Keyd Stars · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
METANOIA Wolves
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents4mo ago
METANOIA Wolves0 : 2
Keyd Stars!4mo ago METANOIA Wolves1 : 2 Keyd Stars!5mo ago METANOIA Wolves2 : 0 Keyd Stars!
METANOIA Wolves0 : 2 Keyd Stars!⚠ Different lineup
METANOIA Wolves
outntx, sakamoto
inTineu, khowy
Keyd Stars
outCutzMeretz, matios
inKinGui, ckzao, drg
METANOIA Wolves1 : 2 Keyd Stars!⚠ Different lineup
METANOIA Wolves
outntx, sakamoto
inTineu, khowy
Keyd Stars
outCutzMeretz, matios
inKinGui, ckzao, drg
METANOIA Wolves2 : 0 Keyd Stars!⚠ Different lineup
METANOIA Wolves
outThuister, protado
inTineu, khowy
Keyd Stars
outCutzMeretz, matios
inKinGui, ckzao, drg
Imperial#620-12-5
METANOIA Wolves vs Imperial
Apr 24LNuke6-13
BESTIA#650-20-2
METANOIA Wolves vs BESTIA
Aug 5LDust28-13Mirage5-13Keyd Stars vs BESTIA
Jul 12LAncient11-13Dust29-13
Bounty Hunters#954-26-17
METANOIA Wolves vs Bounty Hunters
May 4LAnubis4-13Ancient7-13Mar 25WDust213-6Mirage13-11Mar 21WDust213-10Nuke19-17Keyd Stars vs Bounty Hunters
Sep 23LAncient5-13Mirage7-13Jul 15LAncient13-7Nuke11-13Mirage14-16Jul 11WAncient13-11Nuke8-13Mirage13-7+7 earlier meetings
LP#990-30-2
Keyd Stars vs LP
May 24LDust22-13Nuke4-13
Turma do Pagode#1051-00-1
METANOIA Wolves vs Turma do Pagode
Apr 24WDust219-16Keyd Stars vs Turma do Pagode
Apr 25LAnubis11-13
ALKA#1222-04-0
METANOIA Wolves vs ALKA
Apr 23WNuke13-9Dust213-7
ODDIK#1400-23-3
METANOIA Wolves vs ODDIK
Sep 4LMirage5-13Ancient11-13
Isurus#1582-15-3
METANOIA Wolves vs Isurus
Sep 22WDust213-7Cache10-13Nuke13-8Map lab
Keyd Stars54%to win the Bo3 · most likely Keyd Stars 2-0
If the veto goes
METANOIA Wolves 46%how the series ends54% Keyd Stars
19%2-031%
27%2-123%
METANOIA Wolves51%17-16vsKeyd Stars49%28-27
52%Win51%
54%CT52%
51%T50%
55%Pistol54%
81%Conv80%
METANOIA Wolves37%7-10vsKeyd Stars63%19-15
41%Win56%
52%CT56%
42%T48%
59%Pistol49%
70%Conv79%
METANOIA Wolves54%6-8vsKeyd Stars46%14-22
43%Win39%
48%CT48%
42%T43%
54%Pistol44%
80%Conv88%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
METANOIA WolvesDust2Keyd Stars
54%CT side52%
51%T side50%
55%Pistol54%
81%After win80%
13%After loss24%
METANOIA WolvesAncientKeyd Stars
52%CT side56%
42%T side48%
59%Pistol49%
70%After win79%
0%After loss20%
METANOIA WolvesNukeKeyd Stars
48%CT side48%
42%T side43%
54%Pistol44%
80%After win88%
0%After loss5%
Pistol rounds55% · 50% · METANOIA Wolves win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol77% · 81% · Keyd Stars keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol7% · 17% · Keyd Stars fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, METANOIA Wolves vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapMETKEY
MirageMET ban9%1-1053%26-23
InfernoKEY ban31%5-1129%2-5
Dust2MET pick52%17-1651%28-27
AncientKEY pick41%7-1056%19-15
AnubisMET ban20%1-462%8-5
CacheKEY ban0%0-40%0-1
METANOIA Wolves on Cache
LIsurus10–131d agoL
paiN Academy11–131mo agoL
MIBR Academy9–133mo agoL
GUARA11–133mo agoKeyd Stars on Cache
LBounty Hunters9–133mo agoNukedecider43%6-839%14-22
Each team's usual first ban: METANOIA Wolves Mirage · Keyd Stars Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
METANOIA Wolves
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i9/37 (24%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 37 maps they won, 9 (24%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 24% of their wins were comebacks, not 24% of all games.vs GUARADust2from 10 downvs GUARANukefrom 5 downvs MAGICOSInfernofrom 4 downvs Bounty HuntersDust2from 3 downvs Bounty HuntersDust2from 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i17/64 (27%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 64 maps they lost, 17 (27%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs GUARACacheled 7 · lost 11-13vs LPAncientled 5 · lost 7-13vs Keyd StarsDust2led 5 · lost 9-13vs ImperialNukeled 4 · lost 6-13vs LPNukeled 4 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs GUARADust2from 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs GUARACacheled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi25% · 8Close maps (≤3) · OT25% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 8 went to overtime.vs Bounty HuntersNuke19-17vs VascoAncient13-16vs Turma do PagodeDust219-16vs GUARANuke16-13vs MAGICOSDust219-22
Keyd Stars
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i28/101 (28%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 101 maps they won, 28 (28%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 28% of their wins were comebacks, not 28% of all games.vs ex-KRÜNukefrom 7 downvs Bounty HuntersAncientfrom 6 downvs FOLHA AMARELANukefrom 5 downvs ODDIKNukefrom 5 downvs R2Dust2from 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i36/106 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 106 maps they lost, 36 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FluxoNukeled 8 · lost 12-16vs YawaraDust2led 6 · lost 9-13vs MIBR AcademyMirageled 6 · lost 11-13vs Fake do BiruDust2led 6 · lost 10-13vs UNO MILLENukeled 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ex-KRÜNukefrom 7 down · won 19-15
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FluxoNukeled 8 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs SharksMirage13-16vs 9zDust214-16vs ex-KRÜNuke19-15vs GalorysDust219-22vs MIBR AcademyMirage16-19