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Predictions / Bounty Hunters vs Turma do Pagode · match preview
Bounty Hunters vs Turma do Pagode: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2
Bounty Hunters
World #95 · 56-46
VS
2026-09-23 21:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · Best of 3
Turma do Pagode
World #105 · 15-10
ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · Best of 3
56%44%
50%
1.851.85Market · 7 books
50%The call
Bounty Hunters are favoured: our model gives them 56% against Turma do Pagode. Bookmakers lean Bounty Hunters at 50%. Strength slightly favours Bounty Hunters, form slightly favours Bounty Hunters, firepower slightly favours Bounty Hunters, head-to-head clearly favours Turma do Pagode.
Likely mapsAncient · Cache · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Bounty HunterspullTurma do Pagode
Team strength1603
155161/39 BOU
Track record56–46
15–1051/49 TUR
Recent formWWLWW
LWLWL64/36 BOU
Roster rating1.09
1.160/40 BOU
Head-to-head2 maps
6 maps70/30 TUR
Bookmakers imply 50% for Bounty Hunters (1.85 / 1.85); we land 6 points higher at 56%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 93% our own signal (237 maps of Bounty Hunters, 58 of Turma do Pagode). Head-to-head they've met 3 times: Turma do Pagode leads 3–0.
Bottom line: Bounty Hunters to beat Turma do Pagode, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBounty Hunters · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Turma do Pagode · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.15iStar gap: the best player rates 0.15 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Bounty Hunters
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents27d ago
Bounty Hunters0 : 2
Turma do Pagode!5mo ago Bounty Hunters1 : 2 Turma do Pagode!5mo ago Bounty Hunters1 : 2 Turma do Pagode!
Bounty Hunters0 : 2 Turma do Pagode!⚠ Different lineup
Turma do Pagode
outLucaozy, naitte
indanoco, matios
Bounty Hunters1 : 2 Turma do Pagode!⚠ Different lineup
Bounty Hunters
outfREQ
inurban0
Turma do Pagode
outfelps, naitte, pesadelo
inTuurtle, danoco, matios
Bounty Hunters1 : 2 Turma do Pagode!⚠ Different lineup
Bounty Hunters
outfREQ
inurban0
Turma do Pagode
outfelps, naitte, pesadelo
inTuurtle, danoco, matios
paiN#281-20-4
Bounty Hunters vs paiN
Mar 27LMirage13-11Nuke4-13Dust28-13
ShindeN#686-22-4
Bounty Hunters vs ShindeN
Jul 16WNuke13-5Mirage13-10May 1WAncient6-13Mirage13-5Nuke13-6Apr 2WMirage10-13Nuke13-4Dust213-9
Galorys#889-92-1
Bounty Hunters vs Galorys
Sep 18WCache10-13Ancient13-11Sep 6LNuke2-13Ancient4-13Aug 26LCache8-13Ancient10-13+5 earlier meetings
Turma do Pagode vs Galorys
May 11WDust213-9Nuke7-13Ancient13-7
LP#995-52-0
Bounty Hunters vs LP
Jul 28LNuke13-5Ancient10-13Cache10-13May 24WMirage13-6Overpass13-10Mar 4WDust26-13Ancient13-8Mirage13-9+1 earlier meeting
Turma do Pagode vs LP
May 8WAncient13-4Dust213-5QUIQUINTESSÊNCIA#1322-11-0
Bounty Hunters vs QUINTESSÊNCIA
Sep 5WCache13-6Dust22-13Mirage13-4Turma do Pagode vs QUINTESSÊNCIA
Apr 24WAncient13-11
Isurus#1585-33-4
Yawara#16814-33-3
Bounty Hunters vs Yawara
Sep 17WAnubis9-13Cache13-10Mirage13-7Sep 17WCache16-13Anubis16-14Sep 5WDust213-9Cache13-8+4 earlier meetings
Turma do Pagode vs Yawara
Sep 7WCache13-9Ancient14-16Dust213-7May 10LOverpass2-13Ancient13-10Dust211-13
Keyd Stars#18317-61-0
Bounty Hunters vs Keyd Stars
Sep 23WAncient13-5Mirage13-7Jul 15WAncient7-13Nuke13-11Mirage16-14Jul 11LAncient11-13Nuke13-8Mirage7-13+7 earlier meetings
Turma do Pagode vs Keyd Stars
Apr 25WAnubis13-11Map lab
Turma do Pagode64%to win the Bo3 · most likely Turma do Pagode 2-0
If the veto goes
Bounty Hunters 36%how the series ends64% Turma do Pagode
17%2-034%
19%2-131%
Bounty Hunters35%25-20vsTurma do Pagode65%13-5
56%Win72%
56%CT64%
48%T48%
56%Pistol64%
84%Conv96%
Bounty Hunters49%12-8vsTurma do Pagode51%1-0
60%Win100%
49%CT58%
54%T60%
58%Pistol0%
70%Conv–
Bounty Hunters38%20-27vsTurma do Pagode62%10-8
43%Win56%
49%CT54%
46%T50%
51%Pistol44%
73%Conv69%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Bounty HuntersAncientTurma do Pagode
56%CT side64%
48%T side48%
56%Pistol64%
84%After win96%
13%After loss23%
Bounty HuntersCacheTurma do Pagode
49%CT side58%
54%T side60%
58%Pistol0%
70%After win–
18%After loss0%
Bounty HuntersDust2Turma do Pagode
49%CT side54%
46%T side50%
51%Pistol44%
73%After win69%
13%After loss30%
Pistol rounds54% · 53% · level, no edge
After a won pistol77% · 85% · Turma do Pagode keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol14% · 26% · Turma do Pagode fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Bounty Hunters vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapBOUTUR
InfernoBOU bann/a0g40%2-3
Bounty Hunters on Inferno
no recent maps
Turma do Pagode on Inferno
W
ALKA13–57d agoWIsurus16–1416d agoLIsurus9–1326d agoLALKA10–1328d agoLIsurus8–135mo agoMirageTUR ban57%30-2350%1-1
AncientBOU pick56%25-2072%13-5
CacheTUR pick60%12-8100%1-0
Bounty Hunters on Cache
W
DAMAJUANA13–101d agoL
BESTIA14–163d agoW
Fluxo16–144d agoLGalorys10–135d agoWYawara13–106d agoW
Imperial13–86d agoWYawara16–136d agoL
RED Canids Academy4–1316d agoTurma do Pagode on Cache
WYawara13–916d agoAnubisBOU ban47%7-840%2-3
Bounty Hunters on Anubis
WFluxo13–94d agoLYawara9–136d agoWYawara16–146d agoLImperial11–133mo agoWFluxo13–103mo agoW
MIBR Academy13–93mo agoL
VEXA9–134mo agoLTurma do Pagode9–135mo agoTurma do Pagode on Anubis
LpaiN10–13todayLpaiN6–137d agoLyour end8–1318d agoWBounty Hunters13–95mo agoWKeyd Stars13–115mo agoNukeTUR ban61%30-1917%1-5
Dust2decider43%20-2756%10-8
Each team's usual first ban: Bounty Hunters Inferno · Turma do Pagode Mirage.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Bounty Hunters
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i40/127 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 127 maps they won, 40 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs YawaraNukefrom 8 downvs MIBR AcademyNukefrom 6 downvs FOLHA AMARELANukefrom 5 downvs paiNMiragefrom 5 downvs Keyd StarsMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i34/110 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 110 maps they lost, 34 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Turma do PagodeAncientled 8 · lost 11-13vs LPCacheled 7 · lost 10-13vs MIBRAnubisled 6 · lost 16-19vs MIBR AcademyAncientled 6 · lost 10-13vs Keyd StarsAncientled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs YawaraNukefrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Turma do PagodeAncientled 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 21Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 21 went to overtime.vs VascoMirage13-16vs ImperialNuke19-17vs R2Nuke14-16vs YawaraMirage14-16vs CrashersAncient16-14
Turma do Pagode
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i9/32 (28%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 32 maps they won, 9 (28%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 28% of their wins were comebacks, not 28% of all games.vs Bounty HuntersAncientfrom 8 downvs MEIA NOITEDust2from 8 downvs IsurusAncientfrom 7 downvs ALKAAncientfrom 5 downvs ALKAAncientfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i8/26 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 26 maps they lost, 8 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ALKADust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs DENDELEAncientled 5 · lost 12-16vs paiNAnubisled 5 · lost 10-13vs Bounty HuntersNukeled 4 · lost 7-13vs ex-MIBR AcademyAncientled 4 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Bounty HuntersAncientfrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ALKADust2led 6 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini4.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi43% · 7Close maps (≤3) · OT43% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 7 went to overtime.vs METANOIA WolvesDust216-19vs YawaraAncient14-16vs IsurusInferno16-14vs DENDELEAncient12-16vs ShindeNDust216-13