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Predictions / Isurus vs Grêmio · match preview
Isurus vs Grêmio: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2
Isurus
World #158 · 40-32
VS
2026-09-23 21:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · Best of 3
Grêmio
World #207 · 4-11
ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · Best of 3
75%25%
70%
1.323.1Market · 4 books
30%The call · high confidence
Isurus are favoured: our model gives them 75% against Grêmio. Bookmakers lean Isurus at 70%. Strength clearly favours Isurus, record slightly favours Isurus, form clearly favours Isurus, firepower slightly favours Isurus, head-to-head clearly favours Isurus.
Likely mapsDust2 · Inferno · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
IsuruspullGrêmio
Team strength1533
143271/29 ISU
Track record40–32
4–1166/34 ISU
Recent formLLWLL
LLLLL71/29 ISU
Roster rating1.07
1.0267/33 ISU
Head-to-head2 maps
0 maps75/25 ISU
Bookmakers imply 70% for Isurus (1.32 / 3.1); we land 5 points higher at 75%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 90% our own signal (175 maps of Isurus, 37 of Grêmio). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Isurus leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Isurus to beat Grêmio, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsIsurus · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Grêmio · avg 1.02 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| balencyy★ | 0.98 | 81.7 | 70.3% | 55% | 1.14 |
| souz4h | 0.92 | 70.6 | 69% | 56% | 1.02 |
| MITHPUTTINI | 1.01 | 64.6 | 68.1% | 36% | 0.99 |
| s1lent | 0.89 | 66.9 | 68.4% | 53% | 0.98 |
| yeda | 0.83 | 62.1 | 66.2% | 59% | 0.95 |
Recent form
Isurus
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
BESTIA#651-40-2
Grêmio vs BESTIA
Aug 6LInferno6-13Dust27-13
ODDIK#1402-30-2
Grêmio vs ODDIK
Aug 30LAncient9-13Cache3-13
Procyon#1735-62-1
Isurus vs Procyon
May 21WMirage13-8Dust213-7Apr 4WDust213-8Inferno16-13Mar 11WDust213-4+3 earlier meetings
Grêmio vs Procyon
Aug 9WNuke5-13Dust213-10Inferno13-2
Keyd Stars#1833-50-4
METANOIA Wolves#2261-22-0
Isurus vs METANOIA Wolves
Sep 22LDust27-13Cache13-10Nuke8-13Grêmio vs METANOIA Wolves
Jul 20WDust213-5Nuke13-3
paiN Academy2-14-5
Isurus vs paiN Academy
Aug 26WMirage6-13Inferno13-10Cache13-10
Patins da Ferrari2-10-2
Isurus vs Patins da Ferrari
Jul 24WCache16-14Ancient4-13Dust213-6Grêmio vs Patins da Ferrari
Jul 17LCache14-16Mirage8-13Map lab
Isurus61%to win the Bo3 · most likely Isurus 2-0
If the veto goes
Isurus 61%how the series ends39% Grêmio
39%2-013%
21%2-127%
Isurus72%30-20vsGrêmio28%3-6
60%Win33%
55%CT48%
51%T47%
45%Pistol67%
76%Conv75%
Isurus55%22-15vsGrêmio45%5-4
59%Win56%
51%CT43%
55%T54%
50%Pistol56%
89%Conv70%
Isurus45%10-18vsGrêmio55%2-3
36%Win40%
48%CT61%
47%T42%
52%Pistol50%
97%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
IsurusDust2Grêmio
55%CT side48%
51%T side47%
45%Pistol67%
76%After win75%
25%After loss17%
IsurusInfernoGrêmio
51%CT side43%
55%T side54%
50%Pistol56%
89%After win70%
38%After loss13%
IsurusNukeGrêmio
48%CT side61%
47%T side42%
52%Pistol50%
97%After win100%
26%After loss20%
Pistol rounds48% · 59% · Grêmio win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol86% · 78% · Isurus keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol29% · 16% · Isurus fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Isurus vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapISUGRÊ
AnubisISU ban0%0-1n/a0g
Isurus on Anubis
L
FURIA fe4–137mo agoGrêmio on Anubis
no recent maps
MirageGRÊ ban52%13-1217%1-5
Dust2ISU pick60%30-2033%3-6
InfernoGRÊ pick59%22-1556%5-4
AncientISU ban43%9-1225%1-3
CacheGRÊ ban71%5-225%1-3
Each team's usual first ban: Isurus Anubis · Grêmio Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Isurus
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i34/92 (37%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 92 maps they won, 34 (37%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 37% of their wins were comebacks, not 37% of all games.vs Patins da FerrariCachefrom 10 downvs paiN AcademyInfernofrom 7 downvs FOLHA AMARELAInfernofrom 6 downvs CrashersDust2from 6 downvs R2Overpassfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/83 (25%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 83 maps they lost, 21 (25%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ex-KRÜMirageled 8 · lost 11-13vs ShindeNNukeled 7 · lost 9-13vs Turma do PagodeAncientled 7 · lost 11-13vs YawaraInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs PeladonaInfernoled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Patins da FerrariCachefrom 10 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ex-KRÜMirageled 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi28% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT28% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs FURIA feMirage16-13vs UNO MILLENuke12-16vs R2Overpass19-15vs RED Canids AcademyDust214-16vs ProcyonInferno16-13
Grêmio
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i4/13 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 13 maps they won, 4 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs ALKANukefrom 10 downvs paiN AcademyInfernofrom 6 downvs paiN AcademyDust2from 4 downvs MEIA NOITEAncientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i10/24 (42%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 24 maps they lost, 10 (42%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Patins da FerrariMirageled 5 · lost 8-13vs ALKAAncientled 5 · lost 11-13vs Keyd StarsMirageled 5 · lost 10-13vs Patins da FerrariCacheled 4 · lost 14-16vs paiN AcademyNukeled 4 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ALKANukefrom 10 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni5 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Patins da FerrariMirageled 5 · lost 8-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi41% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT41% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs Patins da FerrariCache14-16vs paiN AcademyNuke13-16vs paiN AcademyInferno22-18vs MEIA NOITEDust214-16