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Predictions / LAG vs DETONATE · match preview
LAG vs DETONATE: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2
LAG
World #98 · 54-27
VS
2026-09-24 01:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · Best of 3
DETONATE
World #205 · 7-13
ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · Best of 3
84%16%
74%
1.253.49Market · 3 books
26%The call · high confidence
LAG are favoured: our model gives them 84% against DETONATE. Bookmakers lean LAG at 74%. Strength clearly favours LAG, record clearly favours LAG, form slightly favours LAG, firepower clearly favours LAG, head-to-head clearly favours LAG.
Likely mapsInferno · Cache · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
LAGpullDETONATE
Team strength1613
146778/22 LAG
Track record54–27
7–1373/27 LAG
Recent formWWWWL
WLWLL62/38 LAG
Roster rating1.15
1.1198/2 LAG
Head-to-head2 maps
0 maps75/25 LAG
Bookmakers imply 74% for LAG (1.25 / 3.49); we land 10 points higher at 84%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 91% our own signal (187 maps of LAG, 42 of DETONATE). Head-to-head they've met 2 times: LAG leads 2–0.
Bottom line: LAG to beat DETONATE, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsLAG · avg 1.15 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
DETONATE · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.27iStar gap: the best player rates 0.27 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
LAG
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents18d ago
LAG16 : 12
DETONATE!24d ago LAG13 : 4 DETONATE!
LAG16 : 12 DETONATE!⚠ Different lineup
DETONATE
outFeral, Maxuel
inCrePoW, TH0R
LAG13 : 4 DETONATE!⚠ Different lineup
DETONATE
outMaxuel
inTH0R
SportsBetExpert#718-101-4
LAG vs SportsBetExpert
Sep 18LMirage8-13Dust27-13Aug 31WAnubis16-13Nuke6-13Mirage7-13Dust213-2Aug 1LInferno6-13Dust213-9Nuke4-13+3 earlier meetings
Overtake Sector#1254-12-4
DETONATE vs Overtake Sector
Sep 15LCache13-11Mirage3-13Inferno6-13Sep 6LCache9-13Mirage13-8Inferno4-13
regain#1632-01-2
LAG vs regain
Sep 11WInferno13-8Dust213-3
Olympus#1642-30-2
DETONATE vs Olympus
Sep 20LAncient11-13Inferno5-13
Iowa Stormboar#1774-13-3
NuTorious#2024-01-2
FARFarmVille#2038-01-0
LAG vs FarmVille
Sep 20WDust213-4Inferno13-5Apr 3Wseries2-0Feb 23WInferno13-9Dust213-2+1 earlier meeting
DETONATE vs FarmVille
Sep 6WInferno13-9
Wanted Goons#2306-12-0
LAG vs Wanted Goons
May 30WNuke13-8Dust213-9Mar 21WOverpass8-13Dust213-9Ancient13-9Mar 9WAncient13-7Dust213-8DETONATE vs Wanted Goons
Jun 13WAnubis13-9Ancient16-14Map lab
LAG75%to win the Bo3 · most likely LAG 2-0
If the veto goes
LAG 75%how the series ends25% DETONATE
40%2-010%
35%2-115%
LAG80%32-18vsDETONATE20%3-8
64%Win27%
54%CT42%
58%T44%
43%Pistol55%
86%Conv83%
LAG50%0-0thinDETONATE50%4-2
–Win67%
–CT62%
–T36%
–Pistol67%
–Conv88%
LAG70%20-8vsDETONATE30%3-3
71%Win50%
57%CT52%
56%T44%
52%Pistol25%
93%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
LAGInfernoDETONATE
54%CT side42%
58%T side44%
43%Pistol55%
86%After win83%
32%After loss0%
LAGCacheDETONATE
–CT side62%
–T side36%
–Pistol67%
–After win88%
–After loss0%
LAGNukeDETONATE
57%CT side52%
56%T side44%
52%Pistol25%
93%After win100%
26%After loss11%
Pistol rounds46% · 50% · DETONATE win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol89% · 87% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol30% · 4% · LAG fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, LAG vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
DETONATE habitually bans Dust2 & Ancient, two of LAG's strongest maps (Dust2, Inferno, Nuke, Ancient all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Dust2 12/20, Ancient 11/20), not an opponent read, so expect LAG to fight the veto for Inferno.
MapLAGDET
MirageLAG ban50%12-1238%3-5
Dust2DET ban74%26-90%0-1
InfernoLAG pick64%32-1827%3-8
CacheDET pickn/a0g67%4-2
LAG on Cache
no recent maps
AnubisLAG ban45%5-617%1-5
AncientDET ban66%19-1050%2-2
Each team's usual first ban: LAG Anubis · DETONATE Dust2.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
LAG
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i42/117 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 117 maps they won, 42 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs FarmVilleDust2from 9 downvs mouseDust2from 8 downvs Wanted GoonsDust2from 6 downvs SurgeDust2from 6 downvs KODEXAncientfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i26/68 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 68 maps they lost, 26 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs mouseInfernoled 8 · lost 16-19vs BOSSNukeled 7 · lost 11-13vs BOSSNukeled 6 · lost 17-19vs WildcardMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs Fisher CollegeMirageled 6 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FarmVilleDust2from 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs mouseInfernoled 8 · lost 16-19
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs WildcardInferno13-16vs FarmVilleInferno19-16vs BOSSNuke17-19vs mouseDust216-14vs BOSSInferno16-14
DETONATE
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i9/16 (56%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 16 maps they won, 9 (56%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 56% of their wins were comebacks, not 56% of all games.vs Wanted GoonsAncientfrom 9 downvs Club 333Cachefrom 6 downvs Iowa StormboarMiragefrom 5 downvs Overtake SectorMiragefrom 5 downvs Wanted GoonsAnubisfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i11/26 (42%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 26 maps they lost, 11 (42%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Festina LenteAnubisled 7 · lost 11-13vs NuToriousInfernoled 4 · lost 10-13vs Overtake SectorCacheled 4 · lost 9-13vs regainInfernoled 4 · lost 10-13vs Overtake SectorInfernoled 4 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Wanted GoonsAncientfrom 9 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Festina LenteAnubisled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 5Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 5 went to overtime.vs Wanted GoonsAncient16-14vs Iowa StormboarMirage16-14vs NuToriousCache16-14vs LAGAnubis12-16vs SportsBetExpertCache16-12