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Predictions / MIBR fe vs QUINTESSÊNCIA · match preview
MIBR fe vs QUINTESSÊNCIA: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 South America Series 6
MIBR fe
World #– · 2-4
VS
2026-09-22 19:00 UTC
CCT 2026 South America Series 6 · Best of 3
QUINTESSÊNCIA
World #159 · 6-5
CCT 2026 South America Series 6 · Best of 3
43%57%
The call
QUINTESSÊNCIA are favoured: our model gives them 57% against MIBR fe. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours QUINTESSÊNCIA, record slightly favours QUINTESSÊNCIA, firepower clearly favours QUINTESSÊNCIA.
Likely mapsAncient · Cache · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
MIBR fepullQUINTESSÊNCIA
Team strength1475
152460/40 QUI
Track record2–4
6–566/34 QUI
Recent formWWLLL
WWLLW52/48 QUI
Roster rating0.99
1.1289/11 QUI
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 78% our own signal (15 maps of MIBR fe, 24 of QUINTESSÊNCIA).
Bottom line: QUINTESSÊNCIA to beat MIBR fe, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsMIBR fe · avg 0.99 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
QUINTESSÊNCIA · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.42iStar gap: the best player rates 0.42 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fl4sh★ | 1.35 | 94.8 | 74% | 46% | 1.54 |
| edv | 1.24 | 74.6 | 72.9% | 32% | 1.12 |
| prozinszsz | 0.89 | 72.1 | 71.1% | 48% | 1.03 |
| cz1k4 | 0.95 | 64.2 | 70.1% | 55% | 1.02 |
| n0page | 0.73 | 64.7 | 70.2% | 46% | 0.9 |
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Bounty Hunters#1380-21-2
MIBR fe vs Bounty Hunters
May 12LMirage1-13Dust28-13QUINTESSÊNCIA vs Bounty Hunters
Sep 5LCache6-13Dust213-2Mirage4-13
paiN Academy0-22-1
MIBR fe vs paiN Academy
May 15LDust23-13Mirage5-13QUINTESSÊNCIA vs paiN Academy
Aug 16WCache13-10Anubis4-13Dust213-8Map lab
QUINTESSÊNCIA56%to win the Bo3 · most likely QUINTESSÊNCIA 2-1
If the veto goes
MIBR fe 44%how the series ends56% QUINTESSÊNCIA
25%2-025%
19%2-131%
MIBR fe50%2-2vsQUINTESSÊNCIA50%2-2
50%Win50%
65%CT57%
33%T44%
50%Pistol25%
75%Conv100%
MIBR fe50%0-0thinQUINTESSÊNCIA50%5-1
–Win83%
–CT48%
–T59%
–Pistol58%
–Conv71%
MIBR fe39%1-3vsQUINTESSÊNCIA61%3-3
25%Win50%
44%CT61%
40%T43%
50%Pistol58%
100%Conv86%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
MIBR feAncientQUINTESSÊNCIA
65%CT side57%
33%T side44%
50%Pistol25%
75%After win100%
50%After loss0%
MIBR feCacheQUINTESSÊNCIA
–CT side48%
–T side59%
–Pistol58%
–After win71%
–After loss0%
MIBR feDust2QUINTESSÊNCIA
44%CT side61%
40%T side43%
50%Pistol58%
100%After win86%
0%After loss0%
Pistol rounds50% · 50% · level, no edge
After a won pistol88% · 81% · MIBR fe keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol25% · 0% · MIBR fe fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, MIBR fe vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapMIBQUI
MirageMIB ban0%0-240%2-3
NukeQUI ban33%1-2n/a0g
QUINTESSÊNCIA on Nuke
no recent maps
AncientMIB pick50%2-250%2-2
QUINTESSÊNCIA on Ancient
WMEIA NOITE13–8todayL
ALKA5–131mo agoW
Crashers13–75mo agoL
Turma do Pagode11–135mo agoCacheQUI pickn/a0g83%5-1
MIBR fe on Cache
no recent maps
InfernoMIB ban100%1-0100%2-0
MIBR fe on Inferno
W
Shimmer13–43mo agoAnubisQUI bann/a0g0%0-1
MIBR fe on Anubis
no recent maps
QUINTESSÊNCIA on Anubis
LpaiN Academy4–131mo agoDust2decider25%1-350%3-3
Each team's usual first ban: MIBR fe Overpass · QUINTESSÊNCIA Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
MIBR fe
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i4/6 (67%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 6 maps they won, 4 (67%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 67% of their wins were comebacks, not 67% of all games.vs Clutchain feAncientfrom 8 downvs GUARAAncientfrom 6 downvs ShimmerNukefrom 5 downvs ShimmerDust2from 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i4/9 (44%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 9 maps they lost, 4 (44%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs GUARANukeled 7 · lost 10-13vs R2Ancientled 3 · lost 5-13vs Bounty HuntersDust2led 3 · lost 8-13vs paiN AcademyDust2led 3 · lost 3-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Clutchain feAncientfrom 8 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs GUARANukeled 7 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini6.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs ShimmerNuke25-21
QUINTESSÊNCIA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i6/14 (43%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 14 maps they won, 6 (43%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 43% of their wins were comebacks, not 43% of all games.vs MEIA NOITEAncientfrom 8 downvs PugdesonestoInfernofrom 6 downvs METANOIA WolvesMiragefrom 4 downvs MEIA NOITECachefrom 4 downvs PugdesonestoCachefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i1/10 (10%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 10 maps they lost, 1 (10%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs UNO MILLEDust2led 4 · lost 17-19
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MEIA NOITEAncientfrom 8 down · won 13-8
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs UNO MILLEDust2led 4 · lost 17-19
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi42% · 2Close maps (≤3) · OT42% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 2 went to overtime.vs UNO MILLEDust217-19vs MEIA NOITECache16-13