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Predictions / ALKA vs Grêmio · match preview
ALKA vs Grêmio: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 South America Series 6
ALKA
World #123 · 22-23
VS
2026-09-23 13:00 UTC
CCT 2026 South America Series 6 · Best of 3
Grêmio
World #190 · 4-9
CCT 2026 South America Series 6 · Best of 3
66%34%
The call
ALKA are favoured: our model gives them 66% against Grêmio. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours ALKA, record slightly favours ALKA, firepower slightly favours Grêmio, head-to-head slightly favours ALKA.
Likely mapsDust2 · Inferno · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
ALKApullGrêmio
Team strength1535
144768/32 ALK
Track record22–23
4–961/39 ALK
Recent formLLLWLLLLWL50/50
Roster rating1.07
1.0258/42 GRÊ
Head-to-head2 maps
1 maps60/40 ALK
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 88% our own signal (103 maps of ALKA, 32 of Grêmio). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: ALKA leads 1–0.
Bottom line: ALKA to beat Grêmio, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsALKA · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bnc★ | 1.02 | 78.2 | 71% | 53% | 1.14 |
| proSHOW | 1.14 | 73.2 | 71.9% | 34% | 1.14 |
| cerolzin | 1.01 | 72.5 | 71.1% | 49% | 1.1 |
| vinaabEAST | 0.97 | 75.4 | 70.6% | 57% | 1.06 |
| puni | 0.78 | 62 | 68.4% | 57% | 0.89 |
Grêmio · avg 1.02 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| balencyy★ | 0.96 | 81.9 | 70.2% | 55% | 1.13 |
| souz4h | 0.95 | 72.7 | 70% | 56% | 1.06 |
| MITHPUTTINI | 1.01 | 64.4 | 68% | 36% | 0.98 |
| s1lent | 0.89 | 65.5 | 67.7% | 54% | 0.96 |
| yeda | 0.85 | 62.9 | 67.4% | 58% | 0.96 |
Recent form
ALKA
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
BESTIA#901-20-2
ALKA vs BESTIA
Aug 15LCache13-8Dust28-13Ancient15-19Grêmio vs BESTIA
Aug 6LInferno6-13Dust27-13
ODDIK#1130-20-2
ALKA vs ODDIK
Aug 28LMirage1-13Cache1-13Grêmio vs ODDIK
Aug 30LAncient9-13Cache3-13
Keyd Stars#1640-40-2
Grêmio vs Keyd Stars
Aug 7LInferno4-13Mirage10-13
Procyon#1824-02-1
Grêmio vs Procyon
Aug 9WNuke5-13Dust213-10Inferno13-2
METANOIA Wolves#2250-22-0
ALKA vs METANOIA Wolves
Apr 23LNuke9-13Dust27-13Grêmio vs METANOIA Wolves
Jul 20WDust213-5Nuke13-3
paiN Academy8-04-5
ALKA vs paiN Academy
Aug 15WCache13-7Dust213-8Aug 8WNuke16-13Mirage19-16Jun 27WMirage13-3Inferno13-8+1 earlier meeting
Map lab
ALKA65%to win the Bo3 · most likely ALKA 2-0
If the veto goes
ALKA 65%how the series ends35% Grêmio
35%2-016%
30%2-119%
ALKA65%15-12vsGrêmio35%3-5
56%Win38%
53%CT48%
49%T47%
44%Pistol63%
71%Conv70%
ALKA55%8-4vsGrêmio45%5-3
67%Win63%
62%CT44%
41%T53%
46%Pistol56%
73%Conv67%
ALKA61%3-3vsGrêmio39%1-3
50%Win25%
48%CT38%
54%T41%
58%Pistol25%
86%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
ALKADust2Grêmio
53%CT side48%
49%T side47%
44%Pistol63%
71%After win70%
20%After loss17%
ALKAInfernoGrêmio
62%CT side44%
41%T side53%
46%Pistol56%
73%After win67%
38%After loss14%
ALKACacheGrêmio
48%CT side38%
54%T side41%
58%Pistol25%
86%After win100%
40%After loss0%
Pistol rounds47% · 53% · Grêmio win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol74% · 71% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol27% · 11% · ALKA fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, ALKA vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapALKGRÊ
AnubisALK ban0%0-6n/a0g
ALKA on Anubis
LUNO MILLE6–134mo agoLUNO MILLE2–135mo agoLCharrados7–136mo agoL
Marsborne4–136mo agoL
paiN7–136mo agoLKeyd Stars11–136mo agoGrêmio on Anubis
no recent maps
MirageGRÊ ban58%7-520%1-4
Dust2ALK pick56%15-1238%3-5
InfernoGRÊ pick67%8-463%5-3
NukeALK ban42%8-1125%1-3
AncientGRÊ ban45%9-1133%1-2
Each team's usual first ban: ALKA Anubis · Grêmio Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
ALKA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i19/51 (37%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 51 maps they won, 19 (37%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 37% of their wins were comebacks, not 37% of all games.vs paiN AcademyNukefrom 9 downvs ProcyonAncientfrom 8 downvs BORRACHEIROSNukefrom 7 downvs PugdesonestoAncientfrom 7 downvs Red FeetDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i13/52 (25%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 52 maps they lost, 13 (25%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ShindeNDust2led 8 · lost 11-13vs PugdesonestoAncientled 6 · lost 10-13vs Turma do PagodeAncientled 5 · lost 10-13vs Turma do PagodeAncientled 5 · lost 12-16vs CrashersNukeled 4 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs paiN AcademyNukefrom 9 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ShindeNDust2led 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi28% · 8Close maps (≤3) · OT28% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 8 went to overtime.vs GameHuntersCache13-16vs paiN AcademyNuke16-13vs paiN AcademyMirage19-16vs BORRACHEIROSNuke16-13vs BESTIAAncient15-19
Grêmio
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i3/12 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 12 maps they won, 3 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs paiN AcademyInfernofrom 6 downvs paiN AcademyDust2from 4 downvs MEIA NOITEAncientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i7/20 (35%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 20 maps they lost, 7 (35%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Patins da FerrariMirageled 5 · lost 8-13vs ALKAAncientled 5 · lost 11-13vs Keyd StarsMirageled 5 · lost 10-13vs Patins da FerrariCacheled 4 · lost 14-16vs paiN AcademyNukeled 4 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs paiN AcademyInfernofrom 6 down · won 22-18
Biggest lead blowni5 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Patins da FerrariMirageled 5 · lost 8-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs Patins da FerrariCache14-16vs paiN AcademyNuke13-16vs paiN AcademyInferno22-18vs MEIA NOITEDust214-16