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Predictions / Ground Zero vs Abyssal · match preview
Ground Zero vs Abyssal: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2
Ground Zero
World #119 · 38-30
VS
2026-09-23 09:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2 · Best of 3
Abyssal
World #145 · 21-19
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2 · Best of 3
66%34%
The call
Ground Zero are favoured: our model gives them 66% against Abyssal. No odds yet. Form slightly favours Abyssal, firepower clearly favours Ground Zero, head-to-head slightly favours Ground Zero.
Likely mapsNuke · Mirage · Inferno
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Ground ZeropullAbyssal
Team strength1601
157755/45 GRO
Track record38–30
21–1951/49 ABY
Recent formLWLWW
WWWLW62/38 ABY
Roster rating1.15
1.1384/16 GRO
Head-to-head12 maps
7 maps62/38 GRO
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 96% our own signal (154 maps of Ground Zero, 94 of Abyssal). Head-to-head they've met 8 times: Ground Zero leads 6–2.
Bottom line: Ground Zero to beat Abyssal, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsGround Zero · avg 1.15 · star gap +0.2iStar gap: the best player rates 0.2 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Abyssal · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.05iStar gap: the best player rates 0.05 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Ground Zero
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents1mo ago
Ground Zero2 : 0
Abyssal!1mo ago Ground Zero0 : 2 Abyssal!2mo ago Ground Zero2 : 0 Abyssal◆ same lineup5mo ago Ground Zero2 : 1 Abyssal!6mo ago Ground Zero2 : 1 Abyssal!6mo ago Ground Zero2 : 1 Abyssal!6mo ago Ground Zero2 : 0 Abyssal!7mo ago Ground Zero0 : 2 Abyssal!
Ground Zero2 : 0 Abyssal!⚠ Different lineup
Abyssal
outdpr
indangeR
Ground Zero0 : 2 Abyssal!⚠ Different lineup
Ground Zero
outtucks
inapocdud
Abyssal
outdpr
Ground Zero2 : 0 Abyssal◆ same lineup5mo ago Ground Zero2 : 1 Abyssal!⚠ Different lineup
Ground Zero
outpz, tucks
inhazr, sliimey
Abyssal
outTRIPLUS, dpr
inblood, dangeR
Ground Zero2 : 1 Abyssal!⚠ Different lineup
Ground Zero
outpz
inhazr
Abyssal
outKiyo
inblood
Ground Zero2 : 1 Abyssal!⚠ Different lineup
Ground Zero
outpz
inhazr
Abyssal
outKiyo
inblood
Ground Zero2 : 0 Abyssal!⚠ Different lineup
Ground Zero
outpz
inhazr
Abyssal
outKiyo
inblood
Ground Zero0 : 2 Abyssal!⚠ Different lineup
Ground Zero
outdamyo, pz
inhazr, sliimey
Abyssal
outKiyo
inblood
THUNDER dOWNUNDER#1218-251-4
Ground Zero vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER
Sep 1LDust28-13Inferno1-13Aug 30LNuke5-13Inferno13-11Anubis3-13Jul 18WDust28-13Anubis13-10Nuke16-14+10 earlier meetings
Rooster#16017-65-8
Ground Zero vs Rooster
Aug 28WAnubis13-4Nuke19-15Jun 18LNuke13-2Anubis11-13Mirage11-13Jun 16WMirage13-10Dust216-13+7 earlier meetings
Abyssal vs Rooster
Aug 10WMirage13-2Dust213-6Jul 17LInferno2-13Jun 9LOverpass13-6Nuke7-13Mirage11-13+3 earlier meetings
Mindfreak#18416-74-10
Ground Zero vs Mindfreak
Aug 12WInferno13-6Dust213-6Aug 10WNuke13-10Anubis13-4Jul 18WInferno9-13Anubis13-9Nuke13-7+6 earlier meetings
Abyssal vs Mindfreak
Jul 17LMirage13-6Inferno9-13Nuke6-13Apr 5WOverpass13-10Inferno13-16Nuke13-2Mar 16LOverpass17-19+3 earlier meetings
Arcade#1975-38-5
Ground Zero vs Arcade
Aug 31WNuke13-3Jul 17WMirage10-13Dust213-6Nuke13-7Jul 17WDust213-7+1 earlier meeting
Abyssal vs Arcade
Aug 7WMirage13-6Inferno16-14Aug 5WMirage13-10Nuke7-13Cache13-11Apr 11WOverpass13-10Nuke11-13Mirage13-7+2 earlier meetings
DINDing Cuts2-06-0
Ground Zero vs Ding Cuts
Jun 11WMirage13-9Nuke13-1MARMARKandLARRY4-01-2
Abyssal vs MARKandLARRY
Jun 12LInferno13-7Overpass6-13Mirage8-13
Underground4-12-0
Abyssal vs Underground
Feb 26WMirage19-15Nuke13-8
Skele2-02-1
Ground Zero vs Skele
Apr 27WMirage13-6Inferno13-7Abyssal vs Skele
Feb 19WMirage7-13Nuke13-10Ancient16-13Map lab
Ground Zero64%to win the Bo3 · most likely Ground Zero 2-1
If the veto goes
Ground Zero 64%how the series ends36% Abyssal
23%2-020%
41%2-116%
Ground Zero71%23-12vsAbyssal29%9-12
66%Win43%
61%CT52%
48%T51%
51%Pistol50%
86%Conv95%
Ground Zero33%12-10vsAbyssal67%18-7
55%Win72%
54%CT59%
49%T55%
43%Pistol74%
78%Conv100%
Ground Zero71%15-10vsAbyssal29%6-11
60%Win35%
50%CT48%
50%T43%
46%Pistol38%
83%Conv54%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Ground ZeroNukeAbyssal
61%CT side52%
48%T side51%
51%Pistol50%
86%After win95%
18%After loss14%
Ground ZeroMirageAbyssal
54%CT side59%
49%T side55%
43%Pistol74%
78%After win100%
16%After loss25%
Ground ZeroInfernoAbyssal
50%CT side48%
50%T side43%
46%Pistol38%
83%After win54%
15%After loss43%
Pistol rounds48% · 56% · Abyssal win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol83% · 90% · Abyssal keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol16% · 28% · Abyssal fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Ground Zero vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapGROABY
AncientGRO ban50%2-267%4-2
Dust2ABY ban42%14-1980%4-1
NukeGRO pick66%23-1243%9-12
MirageABY pick55%12-1072%18-7
CacheGRO bann/a0g100%1-0
Ground Zero on Cache
no recent maps
Abyssal on Cache
WArcade13–112mo agoAnubisABY ban44%14-1817%1-5
Infernodecider60%15-1035%6-11
Each team's usual first ban: Ground Zero Ancient · Abyssal Dust2.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Ground Zero
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i28/81 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 81 maps they won, 28 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs ArcadeNukefrom 11 downvs 11minsDust2from 9 downvs THUNDER dOWNUNDERNukefrom 8 downvs LFO 8Ancientfrom 8 downvs THUNDER dOWNUNDERAnubisfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i15/73 (21%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 73 maps they lost, 15 (21%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AbyssalOverpassled 8 · lost 8-13vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERDust2led 7 · lost 10-13vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERNukeled 5 · lost 20-22vs MindfreakInfernoled 4 · lost 7-13vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERInfernoled 4 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ArcadeNukefrom 11 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AbyssalOverpassled 8 · lost 8-13
Avg map margini6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi25% · 14Close maps (≤3) · OT25% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 14 went to overtime.vs UndergroundMirage16-13vs MindfreakMirage19-15vs RoosterNuke16-14vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERAnubis19-16vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERNuke20-22
Abyssal
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i20/50 (40%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 50 maps they won, 20 (40%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 40% of their wins were comebacks, not 40% of all games.vs Ground ZeroOverpassfrom 8 downvs THUNDER dOWNUNDEROverpassfrom 7 downvs MindfreakMiragefrom 7 downvs ArcadeCachefrom 7 downvs MGLBROSNukefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i16/44 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 44 maps they lost, 16 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERNukeled 8 · lost 12-16vs ArcadeNukeled 8 · lost 11-13vs RoosterMirageled 6 · lost 7-13vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERInfernoled 6 · lost 10-13vs MindfreakInfernoled 4 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Ground ZeroOverpassfrom 8 down · won 13-8
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERNukeled 8 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 9Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 9 went to overtime.vs SkeleAncient16-13vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERNuke12-16vs UndergroundMirage19-15vs MindfreakOverpass17-19vs ArcadeMirage13-16