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Predictions / MARKandLARRY vs Arcade · match preview
MARKandLARRY vs Arcade: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2
MAR
MARKandLARRY
World #– · 5-10
VS
2026-09-24 09:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2 · Best of 3
Arcade
World #198 · 13-20
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2 · Best of 3
48%52%
35%
2.661.43Market · 8 books
65%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 48–52. Bookmakers lean Arcade at 65%. Form slightly favours Arcade, firepower slightly favours Arcade.
Likely mapsMirage · Nuke · Inferno
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
MARKandLARRYpullArcade
Team strength1459
147854/46 ARC
Track record5–10
13–2057/43 ARC
Recent formLLWLL
LWLWL61/39 ARC
Roster rating0.99
1.1269/31 ARC
Bookmakers imply 35% for MARKandLARRY (2.66 / 1.43); we land 13 points higher at 48%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 89% our own signal (34 maps of MARKandLARRY, 77 of Arcade).
Bottom line: Arcade to beat MARKandLARRY, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsMARKandLARRY · avg 0.99 · star gap +0.02iStar gap: the best player rates 0.02 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| sav★ | 0.84 | 67.9 | 68% | 60% | 1.01 |
| zeph | 0.86 | 74.6 | 67% | 57% | 1.01 |
| BRACE | 0.84 | 73.7 | 63.6% | 61% | 1 |
| yourwombat | 0.98 | 67.3 | 65.2% | 34% | 0.98 |
| micalis | 0.84 | 61.9 | 66.1% | 59% | 0.95 |
Arcade · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.2iStar gap: the best player rates 0.2 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| foggers★ | 1.35 | 85.3 | 78% | 67% | 1.32 |
| N1ghtraid | 1.13 | 75.3 | 70.4% | 36% | 1.11 |
| 74LOR | 1.01 | 73.1 | 72% | 59% | 1.09 |
| Kras | 0.92 | 75.8 | 69.5% | 57% | 1.08 |
| Mechanical | 0.84 | 67.6 | 69.4% | 51% | 0.98 |
Recent form
MARKandLARRY
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Ground Zero#1190-43-5
Arcade vs Ground Zero
Aug 31LNuke3-13Jul 17LMirage13-10Dust26-13Nuke7-13Jul 17LDust27-13+1 earlier meeting
Abyssal#1502-15-8
MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal
Jun 12WInferno7-13Overpass13-6Mirage13-8Arcade vs Abyssal
Aug 7LMirage6-13Inferno14-16Aug 5LMirage10-13Nuke13-7Cache11-13Apr 11LOverpass10-13Nuke13-11Mirage7-13+2 earlier meetings
Rooster#1651-63-7
MARKandLARRY vs Rooster
Aug 29LDust216-12Mirage11-13Inferno8-13Aug 26LInferno2-13Anubis4-13Jun 8LMirage2-13Anubis10-13Arcade vs Rooster
Aug 30WNuke7-13Inferno13-3Mirage13-5Apr 7LDust210-13Nuke13-11Overpass10-13Mar 24LMirage8-13Overpass12-16+1 earlier meeting
Mindfreak#1900-48-9
Arcade vs Mindfreak
Aug 29WNuke13-9Mirage11-13Inferno13-8Aug 26LNuke5-13Inferno13-8Mirage5-13Apr 6WNuke22-18Dust27-13Mirage13-5+3 earlier meetings
DXA1-23-2
MARKandLARRY vs DXA
Jun 16LAnubis16-13Inferno5-13Overpass4-13MGLMGLBROS2-02-0
MARKandLARRY vs MGLBROS
Jun 9WDust213-6Inferno13-7Arcade vs MGLBROS
Apr 11WAnubis13-5Nuke13-6Map lab
Arcade61%to win the Bo3 · most likely Arcade 2-1
If the veto goes
MARKandLARRY 39%how the series ends61% Arcade
33%2-018%
6%2-143%
MARKandLARRY64%4-3vsArcade36%6-9
57%Win40%
61%CT49%
43%T43%
14%Pistol40%
50%Conv83%
MARKandLARRY51%4-3vsArcade49%11-9
57%Win55%
59%CT56%
39%T43%
43%Pistol48%
100%Conv89%
MARKandLARRY13%1-6vsArcade87%7-3
14%Win70%
39%CT57%
37%T61%
36%Pistol60%
80%Conv83%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
MARKandLARRYMirageArcade
61%CT side49%
43%T side43%
14%Pistol40%
50%After win83%
17%After loss0%
MARKandLARRYNukeArcade
59%CT side56%
39%T side43%
43%Pistol48%
100%After win89%
13%After loss14%
MARKandLARRYInfernoArcade
39%CT side57%
37%T side61%
36%Pistol60%
80%After win83%
33%After loss0%
Pistol rounds31% · 48% · Arcade win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol85% · 86% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol21% · 6% · MARKandLARRY fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, MARKandLARRY vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapMARARC
AnubisMAR ban25%1-333%1-2
AncientARC bann/a0g25%1-3
MARKandLARRY on Ancient
no recent maps
MirageMAR pick57%4-340%6-9
NukeARC pick57%4-355%11-9
CacheMAR ban0%0-167%4-2
MARKandLARRY on Cache
LLFO 89–131d agoDust2ARC ban33%2-427%3-8
Infernodecider14%1-670%7-3
Each team's usual first ban: MARKandLARRY Ancient · Arcade Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
MARKandLARRY
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i5/13 (38%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 13 maps they won, 5 (38%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 38% of their wins were comebacks, not 38% of all games.vs DXAAnubisfrom 4 downvs BBBMBCBSMiragefrom 3 downvs VantageNukefrom 3 downvs LFO 8Nukefrom 3 downvs RoosterDust2from 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i7/21 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 21 maps they lost, 7 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MindfreakDust2led 7 · lost 17-19vs MindfreakNukeled 6 · lost 9-13vs RoosterInfernoled 5 · lost 8-13vs FURYDust2led 4 · lost 10-13vs LFO 8Cacheled 4 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 4 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs DXAAnubisfrom 4 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MindfreakDust2led 7 · lost 17-19
Avg map margini6.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi21% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT21% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs MindfreakDust217-19vs Ground ZeroDust213-16vs DXAAnubis16-13vs RoosterDust216-12
Arcade
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i15/35 (43%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 35 maps they won, 15 (43%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 43% of their wins were comebacks, not 43% of all games.vs AbyssalNukefrom 8 downvs FrujuInfernofrom 6 downvs MindfreakInfernofrom 5 downvs RoosterNukefrom 5 downvs DXADust2from 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i20/42 (48%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 42 maps they lost, 20 (48%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Ground ZeroNukeled 11 · lost 3-13vs RoosterOverpassled 7 · lost 13-16vs AbyssalCacheled 7 · lost 11-13vs 5dadsDust2led 6 · lost 13-16vs madlikewizardsMirageled 5 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs AbyssalNukefrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Ground ZeroNukeled 11 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini4.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 11Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 11 went to overtime.vs AbyssalMirage16-13vs MindfreakDust216-19vs Ground ZeroDust219-16vs RoosterNuke14-16vs RoosterOverpass13-16