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Predictions / FlyQuest vs Rooster · match preview
FlyQuest vs Rooster: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2
FlyQuest
World #93 · 29-14
VS
2026-09-25 09:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2 · Best of 3
Rooster
World #165 · 31-21
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2 · Best of 3
78%22%
87%
1.057.3Market · 3 books
13%The call · high confidence
FlyQuest are favoured: our model gives them 78% against Rooster. Bookmakers lean FlyQuest at 87%. Strength clearly favours FlyQuest, record slightly favours FlyQuest, firepower clearly favours FlyQuest.
Likely mapsAnubis · Dust2 · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
FlyQuestpullRooster
Team strength1679
154676/24 FLY
Track record29–14
31–2165/35 FLY
Recent formWLWWW
WLWLW54/46 FLY
Roster rating1.25
1.1193/7 FLY
Bookmakers imply 87% for FlyQuest (1.05 / 7.3); we land 9 points lower at 78%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 95% our own signal (86 maps of FlyQuest, 116 of Rooster).
Bottom line: FlyQuest to beat Rooster, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsFlyQuest · avg 1.25 · star gap +0.14iStar gap: the best player rates 0.14 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Rooster · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.19iStar gap: the best player rates 0.19 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
FlyQuest
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Ground Zero#1194-06-17
Rooster vs Ground Zero
Aug 28LAnubis4-13Nuke15-19Jun 18WNuke2-13Anubis13-11Mirage13-11Jun 16LMirage10-13Dust213-16+7 earlier meetings
THUNDER dOWNUNDER#1214-00-6
Rooster vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER
Jul 17LAnubis4-13Nuke0-13Feb 8LOverpass6-13Nuke10-13Jan 31LAnubis4-13Nuke1-13
Alter Ego#1281-20-2
FlyQuest vs Alter Ego
Mar 12LOverpass8-13Anubis13-9Dust213-16Rooster vs Alter Ego
May 2LNuke5-13Overpass9-13
Finishers#1882-02-0
FlyQuest vs Finishers
Sep 10WNuke13-0Cache13-11Rooster vs Finishers
Aug 3WDust213-4Anubis13-0
Mindfreak#1902-07-7
FlyQuest vs Mindfreak
Jul 18WNuke13-2Inferno13-3Rooster vs Mindfreak
Sep 23WNuke13-9Cache13-1Aug 11LInferno9-13Anubis13-6Mirage10-13Jul 17LNuke9-13Inferno14-16+3 earlier meetings
DXA1-04-1
FlyQuest vs DXA
Jul 17WInferno13-1
SemperFi2-00-2
FlyQuest vs SemperFi
Apr 2WAncient16-13Anubis13-4Rooster vs SemperFi
Mar 23LDust25-13Mirage4-13Map lab
FlyQuest69%to win the Bo3 · most likely FlyQuest 2-0
If the veto goes
FlyQuest 69%how the series ends31% Rooster
44%2-011%
24%2-120%
FlyQuest70%19-4vsRooster30%11-6
83%Win65%
62%CT54%
63%T48%
61%Pistol44%
81%Conv100%
FlyQuest63%16-6vsRooster37%13-9
73%Win59%
58%CT57%
59%T53%
50%Pistol50%
86%Conv77%
FlyQuest54%4-0vsRooster46%2-0
100%Win100%
63%CT100%
82%T58%
63%Pistol100%
100%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
FlyQuestAnubisRooster
62%CT side54%
63%T side48%
61%Pistol44%
81%After win100%
39%After loss0%
FlyQuestDust2Rooster
58%CT side57%
59%T side53%
50%Pistol50%
86%After win77%
41%After loss18%
FlyQuestCacheRooster
63%CT side100%
82%T side58%
63%Pistol100%
100%After win100%
0%After loss–
Pistol rounds56% · 50% · FlyQuest win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol85% · 88% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol37% · 10% · FlyQuest fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, FlyQuest vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Rooster habitually bans Ancient, FlyQuest's strongest maps (Anubis, Ancient, Dust2, Inferno, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Ancient 54/54), not an opponent read, so expect FlyQuest to fight the veto for Anubis.
MapFLYROO
MirageFLY ban57%4-360%9-6
AncientROO ban67%6-3n/a0g
FlyQuest on Ancient
L
DEPO9–1310d agoWDEPO13–920d agoW
SINNERS16–144mo agoL
5star13–164mo agoL
JiJieHao8–135mo agoWSemperFi16–136mo agoWJiJieHao16–138mo agoW
Morningstar13–118mo agoRooster on Ancient
no recent maps
AnubisFLY pick83%19-465%11-6
Dust2ROO pick73%16-659%13-9
NukeFLY ban50%5-533%8-16
InfernoROO ban70%7-347%9-10
Cachedecider100%4-0100%2-0
Each team's usual first ban: FlyQuest Overpass · Rooster Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
FlyQuest
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i15/61 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 61 maps they won, 15 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs MorningstarAncientfrom 5 downvs JiJieHaoDust2from 5 downvs 5starDust2from 5 downvs Rare AtomDust2from 5 downvs Rare AtomDust2from 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i11/25 (44%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 25 maps they lost, 11 (44%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs HEROICNukeled 4 · lost 11-13vs Chinggis WarriorsNukeled 4 · lost 11-13vs Alter EgoOverpassled 4 · lost 8-13vs JiJieHaoMirageled 4 · lost 11-13vs GamerLegionInfernoled 4 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MorningstarAncientfrom 5 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs HEROICNukeled 4 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini6.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi28% · 10Close maps (≤3) · OT28% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 10 went to overtime.vs JiJieHaoAncient16-13vs Eternal FireMirage16-14vs 100 ThievesNuke14-16vs Rare AtomDust216-13vs Alter EgoDust213-16
Rooster
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i19/65 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 65 maps they won, 19 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs ArcadeOverpassfrom 7 downvs MindfreakAnubisfrom 6 downvs AbyssalMiragefrom 6 downvs FURYCachefrom 6 downvs WYDOInfernofrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i16/51 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 51 maps they lost, 16 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MindfreakNukeled 6 · lost 11-13vs ArcadeNukeled 5 · lost 11-13vs Ground ZeroDust2led 4 · lost 10-13vs AbyssalOverpassled 4 · lost 6-13vs Ground ZeroMirageled 4 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ArcadeOverpassfrom 7 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MindfreakNukeled 6 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi26% · 10Close maps (≤3) · OT26% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 10 went to overtime.vs Ground ZeroNuke14-16vs ArcadeNuke16-14vs ArcadeOverpass16-13vs ArcadeOverpass16-12vs MindfreakAnubis22-20