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Predictions / MOUZ NXT vs FaZe Up Next · match preview
MOUZ NXT vs FaZe Up Next: CS2 match prediction · LeonBet Masters Season 1
MOUZ NXT
World #145 · 55-62
VS
2026-09-25 08:00 UTC
LeonBet Masters Season 1 · Best of 1
FaZe Up Next
World #157 · 1-2
LeonBet Masters Season 1 · Best of 1
60%40%
58%
1.592.24Market · 13 books
42%The call
MOUZ NXT are favoured: our model gives them 60% against FaZe Up Next. Bookmakers lean MOUZ NXT at 58%. Record slightly favours MOUZ NXT, form slightly favours MOUZ NXT, firepower clearly favours MOUZ NXT.
Likely mapsNuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
MOUZ NXTpullFaZe Up Next
Team strength1466
148553/47 FAZ
Track record55–62
1–260/40 MOU
Recent formLWLWW
LWL60/40 MOU
Roster rating1.03
0.9694/6 MOU
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 58% for MOUZ NXT (1.59 / 2.24) and we land at 60%, the same read. This read is 63% our own signal (265 maps of MOUZ NXT, 6 of FaZe Up Next; thin sample, treat it as a lean, not a lock).
Bottom line: MOUZ NXT to beat FaZe Up Next, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsMOUZ NXT · avg 1.03 · star gap +0.15iStar gap: the best player rates 0.15 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
FaZe Up Next · avg 0.96 · star gap +0.16iStar gap: the best player rates 0.16 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
MOUZ NXT
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Map lab
MOUZ NXT50%to win the map · most likely MOUZ NXT 1-0
If the veto goes
MOUZ NXT50%27-24thinFaZe Up Next50%0-0
53%Win–
59%CT–
48%T–
53%Pistol–
83%Conv–
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
MOUZ NXTNukeFaZe Up Next
59%CT side–
48%T side–
53%Pistol–
83%After win–
17%After loss–
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo1, MOUZ NXT vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapMOUFAZ
InfernoMOU ban0%0-1n/a0g
MOUZ NXT on Inferno
L
Inner Circle Academy6–131mo agoFaZe Up Next on Inferno
no recent maps
Dust2FAZ ban40%20-30n/a0g
MOUZ NXT on Dust2
L
BASEMENT BOYS6–1315d agoWDark Moon16–1415d agoL
PCIFIC7–1317d agoL
Misa11–1317d agoW
Bushido Wildcats13–719d agoLPCIFIC5–1320d agoL
BAKS5–1324d agoL
SPARTA6–131mo agoFaZe Up Next on Dust2
no recent maps
AnubisMOU ban45%14-17100%1-0
CacheFAZ ban46%6-70%0-1
AncientMOU ban53%20-1850%1-1
MirageFAZ ban44%21-270%0-2
Nukedecider53%27-24n/a0g
MOUZ NXT on Nuke
LBASEMENT BOYS10–1315d agoWDark Moon13–515d agoW
Permitta13–216d agoW
KUUSAMO13–316d agoLPCIFIC10–1317d agoWMisa13–1117d agoLBushido Wildcats11–1319d agoWPCIFIC13–820d agoFaZe Up Next on Nuke
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: MOUZ NXT Inferno · FaZe Up Next Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
MOUZ NXT
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i42/119 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 119 maps they won, 42 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs KUUSAMOAncientfrom 10 downvs Nuclear TigeRESNukefrom 8 downvs Lazer CatsNukefrom 7 downvs DONSTUNukefrom 7 downvs Friendly CampersNukefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i49/140 (35%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 140 maps they lost, 49 (35%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Bushido WildcatsDust2led 10 · lost 3-13vs AcendAnubisled 8 · lost 13-16vs PCIFICDust2led 8 · lost 5-13vs TDKOverpassled 7 · lost 8-13vs los kogutosMirageled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs KUUSAMOAncientfrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Bushido WildcatsDust2led 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 34Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 34 went to overtime.vs Friendly CampersNuke16-13vs Friendly CampersDust216-13vs FAVBETNuke14-16vs AaBAnubis16-14vs FAVBETNuke14-16
FaZe Up Next
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/2 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 2 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i1/4 (25%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 4 maps they lost, 1 (25%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Nice TryCacheled 3 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 1 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.none in the sample
Biggest lead blowni3 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Nice TryCacheled 3 · lost 8-13
Avg map margini9.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi0% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT0% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample