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Predictions / BIG vs The MongolZ · match preview
BIG vs The MongolZ: CS2 match prediction · Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7
BIG
World #37 · 53-28
VS
2026-10-22 11:00 UTC
Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · Best of 3 · ★
The MongolZ
World #20 · 29-25
Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · Best of 3 · ★
61%39%
48%
1.921.78Market · 8 books
52%The call
BIG are favoured: our model gives them 61% against The MongolZ. Bookmakers lean The MongolZ at 52%. Record slightly favours BIG, form slightly favours The MongolZ, head-to-head clearly favours BIG.
Likely mapsInferno · Mirage · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
BIGpullThe MongolZ
Team strength1631
162851/49 BIG
Track record53–28
29–2561/39 BIG
Recent formLWWLL
WWLWL59/41 THE
Roster rating1.14
1.0553/47 BIG
Head-to-head2 maps
0 maps75/25 BIG
Bookmakers imply 48% for BIG (1.92 / 1.78); we land 13 points higher at 61%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 96% our own signal (174 maps of BIG, 125 of The MongolZ). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: BIG leads 1–0.
Bottom line: BIG to beat The MongolZ, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBIG · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.14iStar gap: the best player rates 0.14 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
The MongolZ · avg 1.05 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Spirit#11-22-2
BIG vs Spirit
Aug 15LCache13-9Dust210-13Mirage7-13
Aurora#51-02-4
BIG vs Aurora
Aug 12WCache13-9
G2#82-62-2
MIBR#121-11-2
The MongolZ vs MIBR
Sep 8LAncient13-5Mirage10-13Inferno12-16
PARIVISION#131-44-1
Astralis#161-20-2
BIG vs Astralis
Oct 3LCache5-13Inferno13-11Mirage1-13The MongolZ vs Astralis
Apr 6LMirage4-13Ancient9-13
FaZe#172-11-2
BIG vs FaZe
Apr 5WDust23-13Overpass13-11Anubis13-3The MongolZ vs FaZe
Jul 31LNuke12-16Mirage13-7Ancient8-13
Map lab
BIG63%to win the Bo3 · most likely BIG 2-0
If the veto goes
BIG 63%how the series ends37% The MongolZ
37%2-014%
25%2-123%
BIG71%16-5vsThe MongolZ29%12-10
76%Win55%
55%CT54%
57%T50%
48%Pistol55%
80%Conv75%
BIG53%16-14vsThe MongolZ47%17-17
53%Win50%
56%CT60%
42%T41%
42%Pistol56%
76%Conv84%
BIG52%8-6vsThe MongolZ48%1-1
57%Win50%
46%CT57%
56%T43%
39%Pistol25%
73%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
BIGInfernoThe MongolZ
55%CT side54%
57%T side50%
48%Pistol55%
80%After win75%
27%After loss30%
BIGMirageThe MongolZ
56%CT side60%
42%T side41%
42%Pistol56%
76%After win84%
20%After loss30%
BIGCacheThe MongolZ
46%CT side57%
56%T side43%
39%Pistol25%
73%After win100%
18%After loss0%
Pistol rounds43% · 54% · The MongolZ win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol77% · 81% · The MongolZ keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol22% · 28% · The MongolZ fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, BIG vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
The MongolZ habitually bans Anubis, BIG's strongest maps (Dust2, Ancient, Anubis, Overpass, Inferno, Nuke all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Anubis 51/54), not an opponent read, so expect BIG to fight the veto for Overpass.
MapBIGTHE
NukeBIG ban63%10-655%11-9
AnubisTHE ban67%6-3n/a0g
BIG on Anubis
W
Ninjas in Pyjamas13–114mo agoLNinjas in Pyjamas5–136mo agoW
Ursa13–97mo agoWFaZe13–37mo agoL
Betclic6–137mo agoL
K278–137mo agoW
CYBERSHOKE13–37mo agoW
Leo16–148mo agoThe MongolZ on Anubis
no recent maps
InfernoBIG pick76%16-555%12-10
MirageTHE pick53%16-1450%17-17
Dust2BIG ban63%12-760%12-8
AncientTHE ban63%24-1452%11-10
Cachedecider57%8-650%1-1
Each team's usual first ban: BIG Nuke · The MongolZ Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
BIG
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i34/110 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 110 maps they won, 34 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs NRGMiragefrom 12 downvs Gentle MatesAncientfrom 6 downvs magicOverpassfrom 6 downvs AMMiragefrom 5 downvs AMNukefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i19/64 (30%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 64 maps they lost, 19 (30%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AstralisCacheled 11 · lost 5-13vs HEROICDust2led 9 · lost 9-13vs G2Cacheled 8 · lost 5-13vs B8Dust2led 6 · lost 8-13vs SpiritDust2led 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 12 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs NRGMiragefrom 12 down · won 16-12
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AstralisCacheled 11 · lost 5-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 19Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 19 went to overtime.vs HYPERSPIRITOverpass17-19vs HAVUOverpass16-14vs LeoAnubis16-14vs AMNuke16-12vs NemesisMirage14-16
The MongolZ
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i18/66 (27%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 66 maps they won, 18 (27%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 27% of their wins were comebacks, not 27% of all games.vs magicMiragefrom 7 downvs PARIVISIONMiragefrom 7 downvs PRIVATEMiragefrom 7 downvs PARIVISIONAncientfrom 6 downvs magicInfernofrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i25/59 (42%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 59 maps they lost, 25 (42%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FaZeNukeled 9 · lost 12-16vs FURIADust2led 7 · lost 10-13vs FalconsMirageled 7 · lost 12-16vs AstralisAncientled 6 · lost 9-13vs LiquidMirageled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs magicMiragefrom 7 down · won 25-23
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FaZeNukeled 9 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi38% · 16Close maps (≤3) · OT38% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 16 went to overtime.vs FURIAInferno12-16vs B8Nuke19-17vs VitalityMirage13-16vs paiNNuke19-17vs VitalityOverpass13-16