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Predictions / Nuclear TigeRES vs FORZE Reload · match preview
Nuclear TigeRES vs FORZE Reload: CS2 match prediction · NODWIN Clutch Series 13
Nuclear TigeRES
World #50 · 85-49
VS
2026-10-24 14:00 UTC
NODWIN Clutch Series 13 · Best of 3
FORZE Reload
World #80 · 38-29
NODWIN Clutch Series 13 · Best of 3
51%49%
58%
1.582.2Market · 5 books
42%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 51–49. Bookmakers lean Nuclear TigeRES at 58%. Strength slightly favours Nuclear TigeRES, form slightly favours FORZE Reload, firepower clearly favours FORZE Reload, head-to-head clearly favours FORZE Reload.
Likely mapsAncient · Cache · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Nuclear TigeRESpullFORZE Reload
Team strength1694
165658/42 NUC
Track record85–49
38–2954/46 NUC
Recent formLWWLW
WWLWW58/42 FOR
Roster rating1.14
1.1876/24 FOR
Head-to-head0 maps
2 maps75/25 FOR
Bookmakers imply 58% for Nuclear TigeRES (1.58 / 2.2); we land 7 points lower at 51%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (312 maps of Nuclear TigeRES, 154 of FORZE Reload). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: FORZE Reload leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Nuclear TigeRES to beat FORZE Reload, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsNuclear TigeRES · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
FORZE Reload · avg 1.18 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Nuclear TigeRES
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Nemiga#247-30-2
Nuclear TigeRES vs Nemiga
Aug 28WNuke13-10Ancient16-14May 20WAncient13-7Dust213-11Mar 6WDust213-11Ancient13-16Anubis13-5+1 earlier meeting
FORZE Reload vs Nemiga
Aug 22LNuke11-13Anubis9-13
Sangal#402-10-2
Nuclear TigeRES vs Sangal
Jan 21WAncient13-9Mirage11-13Anubis13-3FORZE Reload vs Sangal
Jan 20LMirage7-13Ancient10-13
Eternal Fire#435-42-1
Nuclear TigeRES vs Eternal Fire
Oct 17WAnubis13-5Dust216-13Sep 26LAnubis13-7Dust28-13Ancient8-13Sep 3WAncient16-13Anubis13-10+1 earlier meeting
FORZE Reload vs Eternal Fire
Jan 22WMirage8-13Ancient13-9Dust213-11
K27#467-30-2
Nuclear TigeRES vs K27
Aug 30WAnubis13-9Cache13-11Jun 17WMirage9-13Anubis13-9Nuke13-9May 28WAnubis13-8Nuke13-9+1 earlier meeting
FORZE Reload vs K27
Mar 3LAncient9-13Dust24-13
Nemesis#4711-80-4
Nuclear TigeRES vs Nemesis
Oct 19LAncient10-13Nuke13-2Dust23-13Oct 16LAncient16-13Nuke4-13Inferno1-13Oct 2LDust213-11Inferno9-13Nuke8-13+4 earlier meetings
ex-Zero Tenacity#674-13-2
Phantom#682-10-2
Nuclear TigeRES vs Phantom
Oct 14WAnubis13-1Mirage6-13Dust213-7FORZE Reload vs Phantom
Jan 22LMirage7-13Nuke7-13
ex-RUSTEC#703-24-0
Map lab
FORZE Reload58%to win the Bo3 · most likely FORZE Reload 2-1
If the veto goes
Nuclear TigeRES 42%how the series ends58% FORZE Reload
20%2-021%
23%2-137%
Nuclear TigeRES72%53-22vsFORZE Reload28%13-14
71%Win48%
56%CT48%
54%T50%
49%Pistol44%
81%Conv79%
Nuclear TigeRES28%4-2vsFORZE Reload72%12-2
67%Win86%
64%CT65%
45%T59%
42%Pistol61%
100%Conv94%
Nuclear TigeRES38%32-32vsFORZE Reload62%22-13
50%Win63%
48%CT55%
51%T50%
55%Pistol56%
89%Conv90%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Nuclear TigeRESAncientFORZE Reload
56%CT side48%
54%T side50%
49%Pistol44%
81%After win79%
26%After loss13%
Nuclear TigeRESCacheFORZE Reload
64%CT side65%
45%T side59%
42%Pistol61%
100%After win94%
29%After loss45%
Nuclear TigeRESDust2FORZE Reload
48%CT side55%
51%T side50%
55%Pistol56%
89%After win90%
12%After loss20%
Pistol rounds52% · 53% · level, no edge
After a won pistol85% · 87% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol21% · 21% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Nuclear TigeRES vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
FORZE Reload habitually bans Inferno, Nuclear TigeRES's strongest maps (Ancient, Inferno, Anubis, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Inferno 62/68), not an opponent read, so expect Nuclear TigeRES to fight the veto for Ancient.
MapNUCFOR
MirageNUC ban41%12-1748%14-15
InfernoFOR ban68%23-110%0-1
Nuclear TigeRES on Inferno
LNemesis1–137d agoW
Butterfly13–89d agoLNemesis9–1321d agoWMagnum13–223d agoLex-Zero Tenacity7–1328d agoW
B816–141mo agoW
SINNERS13–101mo agoWSINNERS13–61mo agoFORZE Reload on Inferno
LBebop8–138mo agoAncientNUC pick71%53-2248%13-14
CacheFOR pick67%4-286%12-2
NukeNUC ban46%22-2661%14-9
AnubisFOR ban70%39-1762%8-5
Dust2decider50%32-3263%22-13
Each team's usual first ban: Nuclear TigeRES Overpass · FORZE Reload Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Nuclear TigeRES
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i58/185 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 185 maps they won, 58 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs MagnumDust2from 12 downvs PhantomAnubisfrom 12 downvs NemesisNukefrom 11 downvs 1winAnubisfrom 6 downvs SashiNukefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i58/127 (46%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 127 maps they lost, 58 (46%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ex-RUBYMirageled 10 · lost 16-19vs NemesisNukeled 9 · lost 4-13vs illwillInfernoled 8 · lost 11-13vs MOUZ NXTNukeled 8 · lost 15-19vs ex-Zero TenacityInfernoled 8 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 12 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MagnumDust2from 12 down · won 13-1
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ex-RUBYMirageled 10 · lost 16-19
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 41Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 41 went to overtime.vs Gentle MatesInferno15-19vs KOLESIEAncient16-13vs OramondMirage16-14vs WHITEBIRDInferno19-17vs MOUZ NXTAncient16-13
FORZE Reload
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i30/85 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 85 maps they won, 30 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs WHITEBIRDAncientfrom 7 downvs FAVBETAnubisfrom 6 downvs UPGRADEDust2from 6 downvs ARCREDNukefrom 5 downvs MASONICAncientfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i28/69 (41%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 69 maps they lost, 28 (41%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs UPGRADEAnubisled 8 · lost 11-13vs ex-Zero TenacityNukeled 7 · lost 13-16vs UrsaMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs NemigaNukeled 6 · lost 11-13vs ColorDust2led 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs WHITEBIRDAncientfrom 7 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs UPGRADEAnubisled 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 25Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 25 went to overtime.vs MASONICTrain13-16vs STATENuke16-12vs ARCREDNuke19-17vs los kogutosAnubis16-14vs MASONICAncient28-26