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Predictions / MIBR vs 100 Thieves · match preview
MIBR vs 100 Thieves: CS2 match prediction · Stake Pulse Beat III
MIBR
World #12 · 52-26
VS
2026-10-17 11:00 UTC
Stake Pulse Beat III · Best of 3 · ★
100 Thieves
World #37 · 56-28
Stake Pulse Beat III · Best of 3 · ★
44%56%
56%
1.652.1Market · 7 books
44%The call
100 Thieves are favoured: our model gives them 56% against MIBR. Bookmakers lean MIBR at 56%. Strength slightly favours 100 Thieves, firepower clearly favours 100 Thieves.
Likely mapsInferno · Ancient · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
MIBRpull100 Thieves
Team strength1670
171459/41 100
Track record52–2656–2850/50
Recent formWWWLL
WWWLW52/48 100
Roster rating1.13
1.1481/19 100
Bookmakers imply 56% for MIBR (1.65 / 2.1); we land 12 points lower at 44%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 98% our own signal (175 maps of MIBR, 182 of 100 Thieves).
Bottom line: 100 Thieves to beat MIBR, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsMIBR · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.19iStar gap: the best player rates 0.19 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
100 Thieves · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Spirit#10-11-2
MIBR vs Spirit
Jun 6LMirage1-13100 Thieves vs Spirit
Jul 26LAnubis11-13Mirage13-4Dust20-13
PARIVISION#113-20-2
100 Thieves vs PARIVISION
Aug 14LAnubis5-13Dust25-13
Astralis#152-42-1
MIBR vs Astralis
Oct 16WInferno8-13Cache16-14Mirage13-9Aug 12LInferno6-13Apr 4LMirage10-13Overpass5-13100 Thieves vs Astralis
Sep 26WAnubis13-7Ancient6-13Inferno13-10
magic#242-11-2
MIBR vs magic
Sep 18WAncient13-8Mirage11-13Inferno13-8100 Thieves vs magic
Mar 31LInferno13-8Mirage8-13Ancient9-13
Liquid#271-02-1
MIBR vs Liquid
Jun 3WMirage13-10100 Thieves vs Liquid
Oct 13WDust213-0Inferno8-13Mirage13-9
BIG#351-11-2
100 Thieves vs BIG
Apr 23LMirage9-13Ancient13-3Dust213-16
Eternal Fire#381-24-2
MIBR vs Eternal Fire
Sep 2LAncient16-19Inferno13-8Mirage11-13100 Thieves vs Eternal Fire
Oct 2WAnubis16-12Aug 24LAncient9-13Dust213-7Mirage10-13Feb 27WInferno13-11Dust213-9
K27#432-21-4
Map lab
MIBR54%to win the Bo3 · most likely MIBR 2-0
If the veto goes
MIBR 54%how the series ends46% 100 Thieves
28%2-022%
26%2-124%
MIBR55%29-13vs100 Thieves45%18-10
69%Win64%
55%CT55%
58%T52%
56%Pistol55%
77%Conv87%
MIBR51%19-11vs100 Thieves49%25-15
63%Win63%
52%CT56%
51%T53%
58%Pistol61%
94%Conv90%
MIBR52%6-3vs100 Thieves48%2-1
67%Win67%
60%CT53%
43%T50%
44%Pistol50%
88%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
MIBRInferno100 Thieves
55%CT side55%
58%T side52%
56%Pistol55%
77%After win87%
11%After loss16%
MIBRAncient100 Thieves
52%CT side56%
51%T side53%
58%Pistol61%
94%After win90%
44%After loss16%
MIBRCache100 Thieves
60%CT side53%
43%T side50%
44%Pistol50%
88%After win100%
10%After loss0%
Pistol rounds56% · 58% · level, no edge
After a won pistol84% · 89% · 100 Thieves keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol22% · 15% · MIBR fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, MIBR vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
100 Thieves habitually bans Mirage, MIBR's strongest maps (Inferno, Mirage, Anubis, Ancient, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Mirage 46/84), not an opponent read, so expect MIBR to fight the veto for Inferno.
MapMIB100
Dust2MIB ban0%0-176%29-9
Anubis100 ban86%12-244%7-9
InfernoMIB pick69%29-1364%18-10
Ancient100 pick63%19-1163%25-15
NukeMIB ban55%18-1559%19-13
Mirage100 ban63%22-1359%13-9
Cachedecider67%6-367%2-1
Each team's usual first ban: MIBR Dust2 · 100 Thieves Mirage.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
MIBR
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i36/111 (32%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 111 maps they won, 36 (32%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 32% of their wins were comebacks, not 32% of all games.vs GalorysMiragefrom 9 downvs Gaimin GladiatorsAnubisfrom 8 downvs magicAncientfrom 7 downvs Bounty HuntersAnubisfrom 6 downvs BC.GameAnubisfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i25/64 (39%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 64 maps they lost, 25 (39%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs RED CanidsInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13vs LegacyMirageled 7 · lost 12-16vs Eternal FireAncientled 6 · lost 16-19vs Eternal FireMirageled 6 · lost 11-13vs BETBOOMAnubisled 6 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs GalorysMiragefrom 9 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs RED CanidsInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 25Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 25 went to overtime.vs LegacyAncient22-20vs RED CanidsAncient19-16vs 9zNuke16-14vs 9zInferno16-13vs GalorysNuke16-13
100 Thieves
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i33/115 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 115 maps they won, 33 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs JiJieHaoDust2from 10 downvs Nuclear TigeRESAncientfrom 7 downvs FalconsAnubisfrom 7 downvs NemesisAncientfrom 6 downvs UrsaInfernofrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i27/67 (40%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 67 maps they lost, 27 (40%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FalconsNukeled 10 · lost 4-13vs TDKAncientled 8 · lost 13-16vs JiJieHaoCacheled 8 · lost 5-13vs FOKUSInfernoled 6 · lost 14-16vs HOTUDust2led 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs JiJieHaoDust2from 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FalconsNukeled 10 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi25% · 22Close maps (≤3) · OT25% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 22 went to overtime.vs Ninjas in PyjamasAncient16-12vs BetBoomNuke16-12vs FlyQuestNuke16-14vs FOKUSInferno14-16vs Johnny SpeedsInferno19-15