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Predictions / Nuclear TigeRES vs Illyrians · match preview
Nuclear TigeRES vs Illyrians: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 11
Nuclear TigeRES
World #50 · 85-49
VS
2026-10-23 11:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 11 · Best of 3
Illyrians
World #124 · 18-10
CCT 2026 Europe Series 11 · Best of 3
74%26%
The call · high confidence
Nuclear TigeRES are favoured: our model gives them 74% against Illyrians. No odds yet. Strength clearly favours Nuclear TigeRES, form slightly favours Illyrians, firepower clearly favours Nuclear TigeRES.
Likely mapsAncient · Dust2 · Anubis
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Nuclear TigeRESpullIllyrians
Team strength1694
156575/25 NUC
Track record85–49
18–1051/49 NUC
Recent formLWWLW
WWLWW58/42 ILL
Roster rating1.14
1.0882/18 NUC
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 94% our own signal (312 maps of Nuclear TigeRES, 72 of Illyrians).
Bottom line: Nuclear TigeRES to beat Illyrians, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsNuclear TigeRES · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Illyrians · avg 1.08 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BledarD★ | 1.2 | 82.2 | 70.9% | 38% | 1.2 |
| ammar | 0.99 | 72.3 | 68.5% | 67% | 1.11 |
| cerber | 1.01 | 80.2 | 70.6% | 59% | 1.11 |
| Dementor | 0.91 | 69.6 | 70.7% | 54% | 1.03 |
| rosoneriii | 0.85 | 67.6 | 68.3% | 46% | 0.97 |
Recent form
Nuclear TigeRES
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
ex-Zero Tenacity#674-11-2
Illyrians vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Sep 25LMirage13-7Cache2-13Dust26-13
ex-RUSTEC#703-20-2
Illyrians vs ex-RUSTEC
Oct 18LAnubis6-13Ancient7-13
UPGRADE#741-22-0
Nuclear TigeRES vs UPGRADE
Sep 13LDust213-5Cache8-13Anubis11-13Illyrians vs UPGRADE
Sep 21WMirage13-6Anubis13-8
UNiTY#864-02-1
Illyrians vs UNiTY
Sep 22WInferno1-13Dust213-7Anubis13-9
ENCE#1182-12-0
Nuclear TigeRES vs ENCE
Jan 17WAncient13-9Anubis6-13Dust213-3Illyrians vs ENCE
Sep 19WDust213-10Inferno13-11
WW#1370-22-1
Nuclear TigeRES vs WW
Mar 11LInferno10-13Dust25-13Illyrians vs WW
Sep 23WMirage13-7Ancient11-13Dust213-3Map lab
Nuclear TigeRES56%to win the Bo3 · most likely Nuclear TigeRES 2-0
If the veto goes
Nuclear TigeRES 56%how the series ends44% Illyrians
35%2-016%
21%2-128%
Nuclear TigeRES67%53-22vsIllyrians33%6-5
71%Win55%
56%CT51%
54%T48%
49%Pistol55%
81%Conv75%
Nuclear TigeRES53%32-32vsIllyrians47%8-9
50%Win47%
48%CT51%
51%T45%
55%Pistol38%
89%Conv100%
Nuclear TigeRES43%39-17vsIllyrians57%5-1
70%Win83%
53%CT53%
61%T60%
48%Pistol50%
89%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Nuclear TigeRESAncientIllyrians
56%CT side51%
54%T side48%
49%Pistol55%
81%After win75%
26%After loss40%
Nuclear TigeRESDust2Illyrians
48%CT side51%
51%T side45%
55%Pistol38%
89%After win100%
12%After loss19%
Nuclear TigeRESAnubisIllyrians
53%CT side53%
61%T side60%
48%Pistol50%
89%After win100%
12%After loss17%
Pistol rounds51% · 46% · Nuclear TigeRES win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol86% · 90% · Illyrians keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol18% · 24% · Illyrians fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Nuclear TigeRES vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapNUCILL
MirageNUC ban41%12-1755%11-9
NukeILL ban46%22-260%0-1
AncientNUC pick71%53-2255%6-5
Dust2ILL pick50%32-3247%8-9
CacheNUC ban67%4-282%9-2
InfernoILL ban68%23-1150%1-1
Anubisdecider70%39-1783%5-1
Each team's usual first ban: Nuclear TigeRES Overpass · Illyrians Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Nuclear TigeRES
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i58/185 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 185 maps they won, 58 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs MagnumDust2from 12 downvs PhantomAnubisfrom 12 downvs NemesisNukefrom 11 downvs 1winAnubisfrom 6 downvs SashiNukefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i58/127 (46%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 127 maps they lost, 58 (46%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ex-RUBYMirageled 10 · lost 16-19vs NemesisNukeled 9 · lost 4-13vs illwillInfernoled 8 · lost 11-13vs MOUZ NXTNukeled 8 · lost 15-19vs ex-Zero TenacityInfernoled 8 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 12 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MagnumDust2from 12 down · won 13-1
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ex-RUBYMirageled 10 · lost 16-19
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 41Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 41 went to overtime.vs Gentle MatesInferno15-19vs KOLESIEAncient16-13vs OramondMirage16-14vs WHITEBIRDInferno19-17vs MOUZ NXTAncient16-13
Illyrians
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i18/40 (45%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 40 maps they won, 18 (45%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 45% of their wins were comebacks, not 45% of all games.vs Banda ChuyaCachefrom 11 downvs WWDust2from 10 downvs VexarAncientfrom 6 downvs UNiTYDust2from 6 downvs Saint SinnersMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i10/28 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 28 maps they lost, 10 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ex-RUSTECAnubisled 10 · lost 6-13vs Noir VerseNukeled 8 · lost 5-13vs STATECacheled 5 · lost 11-13vs MAYBEMirageled 4 · lost 12-16vs G2 AresAncientled 4 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Banda ChuyaCachefrom 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ex-RUSTECAnubisled 10 · lost 6-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi28% · 7Close maps (≤3) · OT28% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 7 went to overtime.vs STATEAncient16-12vs MAYBEMirage12-16vs SAW YoungstersDust219-17vs Bushido WildcatsAnubis16-14vs Black PhoenixMirage13-16