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Predictions / 1win vs 5star · match preview
1win vs 5star: CS2 match prediction · GLuck Moscow Cyber Games 2026
1win
World #14 · 61-38
VS
2026-10-31 13:00 UTC
GLuck Moscow Cyber Games 2026 · Best of 3 · ★
5star
World #36 · 31-22
GLuck Moscow Cyber Games 2026 · Best of 3 · ★
63%37%
The call
1win are favoured: our model gives them 63% against 5star. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours 1win, firepower clearly favours 5star.
Likely mapsInferno · Anubis · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
1winpull5star
Team strength1671
157969/31 1WI
Track record61–38
31–2254/46 1WI
Recent formLWWWL
LWWLL55/45 1WI
Roster rating1.09
1.0783/17 5ST
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 97% our own signal (236 maps of 1win, 134 of 5star).
Bottom line: 1win to beat 5star, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratings1win · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ax1Le★ | 1.1 | 80.7 | 74.7% | 51% | 1.19 |
| ArtFr0st | 1.27 | 69.8 | 75.2% | 27% | 1.13 |
| fame | 0.98 | 68.1 | 73.8% | 60% | 1.1 |
| BELCHONOKK | 0.97 | 74 | 70.8% | 55% | 1.06 |
| nafany | 0.86 | 68.1 | 68.5% | 57% | 0.99 |
5star · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
1win
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
G2#82-10-2
1win vs G2
Oct 4WDust213-11Ancient1-13Mirage13-85star vs G2
Sep 10LInferno9-13Ancient4-13Map lab
5star57%to win the Bo3 · most likely 5star 2-0
If the veto goes
1win 43%how the series ends57% 5star
18%2-031%
25%2-126%
1win54%14-6vs5star46%19-10
70%Win66%
49%CT55%
53%T47%
48%Pistol55%
74%Conv88%
1win33%11-14vs5star67%7-4
44%Win64%
44%CT47%
55%T57%
46%Pistol45%
87%Conv70%
1win49%7-5vs5star51%6-4
58%Win60%
52%CT61%
53%T40%
46%Pistol50%
82%Conv80%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
1winInferno5star
49%CT side55%
53%T side47%
48%Pistol55%
74%After win88%
19%After loss8%
1winAnubis5star
44%CT side47%
55%T side57%
46%Pistol45%
87%After win70%
4%After loss8%
1winCache5star
52%CT side61%
53%T side40%
46%Pistol50%
82%After win80%
15%After loss10%
Pistol rounds46% · 52% · 5star win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol81% · 83% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol11% · 8% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, 1win vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
5star habitually bans Mirage & Dust2, two of 1win's strongest maps (Inferno, Mirage, Dust2 all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Mirage 28/55, Dust2 44/55), not an opponent read, so expect 1win to fight the veto for Dust2.
Map1WI5ST
Nuke1WI bann/a0g57%21-16
Dust25ST ban62%41-2540%2-3
Inferno1WI pick70%14-666%19-10
Anubis5ST pick44%11-1464%7-4
Mirage1WI ban63%25-1580%8-2
Ancient5ST ban53%24-2126%7-20
Each team's usual first ban: 1win Nuke · 5star Dust2.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
1win
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i46/133 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 133 maps they won, 46 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs UNiTYAncientfrom 9 downvs MINLATEInfernofrom 7 downvs K27Overpassfrom 7 downvs Nuclear TigeRESAnubisfrom 7 downvs LegacyDust2from 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i33/95 (35%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 95 maps they lost, 33 (35%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs magicInfernoled 6 · lost 7-13vs NemigaOverpassled 6 · lost 11-13vs illwillDust2led 6 · lost 12-16vs SINNERSDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs Nuclear TigeRESAnubisled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs UNiTYAncientfrom 9 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs magicInfernoled 6 · lost 7-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi28% · 27Close maps (≤3) · OT28% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 27 went to overtime.vs GenOneInferno22-20vs illwillDust212-16vs MINLATEInferno19-17vs UrsaInferno19-15vs K27Overpass19-16
5star
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i22/72 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 72 maps they won, 22 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs Chinggis WarriorsInfernofrom 7 downvs Alter EgoMiragefrom 6 downvs NEXVOIDNukefrom 5 downvs Rare AtomDust2from 5 downvs NEXVOIDInfernofrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i16/62 (26%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 62 maps they lost, 16 (26%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs NEXVOIDNukeled 6 · lost 13-16vs KaleidoAncientled 6 · lost 8-13vs FlyQuestDust2led 5 · lost 7-13vs G2Infernoled 5 · lost 9-13vs Chinggis WarriorsAncientled 5 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Chinggis WarriorsInfernofrom 7 down · won 13-7
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs NEXVOIDNukeled 6 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 11Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 11 went to overtime.vs BMZAncient25-22vs NEXVOIDNuke13-16vs Rare AtomInferno16-13vs FlyQuestAncient16-13vs Alter EgoAnubis16-14