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Predictions / NEXVOID vs Rare Atom · match preview
NEXVOID vs Rare Atom: CS2 match prediction · MaceMedia VOID Autumn Cup 2026
NEXVOID
World #77 · 47-29
VS
2026-10-23 05:00 UTC
MaceMedia VOID Autumn Cup 2026 · Best of 3
Rare Atom
World #127 · 37-27
MaceMedia VOID Autumn Cup 2026 · Best of 3
66%34%
64%
1.442.59Market · 1 books
36%The call
NEXVOID are favoured: our model gives them 66% against Rare Atom. Bookmakers lean NEXVOID at 64%. Strength slightly favours NEXVOID, form slightly favours NEXVOID, firepower slightly favours NEXVOID, head-to-head clearly favours NEXVOID.
Likely mapsInferno · Dust2 · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
NEXVOIDpullRare Atom
Team strength1649
161158/42 NEX
Track record47–29
37–2751/49 NEX
Recent formWLWWW
WLLLW62/38 NEX
Roster rating1.12
1.1667/33 NEX
Head-to-head4 maps
1 maps71/29 NEX
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 64% for NEXVOID (1.44 / 2.59) and we land at 66%, the same read. This read is 97% our own signal (181 maps of NEXVOID, 160 of Rare Atom). Head-to-head they've met 2 times: NEXVOID leads 2–0.
Bottom line: NEXVOID to beat Rare Atom, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsNEXVOID · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.03iStar gap: the best player rates 0.03 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MiQ★ | 1.06 | 80.9 | 70.2% | 48% | 1.15 |
| Zesta | 1.04 | 75.9 | 71.9% | 61% | 1.15 |
| xerolte | 1.07 | 79.8 | 72.3% | 55% | 1.14 |
| erkaSt | 1 | 76.8 | 71.4% | 51% | 1.12 |
| AccuracyTG | 1.02 | 67 | 70.3% | 41% | 1.05 |
Rare Atom · avg 1.16 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChildKing★ | 1.15 | 85.2 | 73% | 62% | 1.28 |
| kaze | 1.26 | 73.4 | 74% | 34% | 1.19 |
| L1haNg | 1.03 | 81.8 | 74.8% | 57% | 1.14 |
| 3gl | 1.09 | 67.9 | 74.3% | 44% | 1.11 |
| Summer | 0.95 | 72.5 | 72.4% | 53% | 1.06 |
Recent form
NEXVOID
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents2mo ago
NEXVOID2 : 1
Rare Atom!2mo ago NEXVOID2 : 0 Rare Atom!
NEXVOID2 : 1 Rare Atom!⚠ Different lineup
Rare Atom
outTrash
inkaze
NEXVOID2 : 0 Rare Atom!⚠ Different lineup
Rare Atom
outTrash
inkaze
TYLOO#351-61-8
NEXVOID vs TYLOO
Sep 10LAncient3-13Cache10-13Sep 9LAncient7-13Cache5-13May 3LAncient13-10Inferno11-13Overpass8-13Rare Atom vs TYLOO
Apr 30LAncient13-5Overpass3-13Mirage2-13Apr 4LMirage8-13Ancient5-13Mar 31LMirage3-13Ancient4-13+1 earlier meeting
5star#3612-123-6
Lynn Vision#392-75-6
NEXVOID vs Lynn Vision
Sep 29WAncient11-13Nuke13-11Inferno19-16Sep 27LAncient14-16Nuke5-13Sep 2LInferno8-13Dust27-13+1 earlier meeting
Rare Atom vs Lynn Vision
Oct 21LCache14-16Dust213-11Inferno4-13Sep 2WCache13-11Dust213-10Mar 22LAncient16-19Dust210-13Inferno7-13+1 earlier meeting
FlyQuest#613-73-5
NEXVOID vs FlyQuest
Oct 18WAncient13-7Dust26-13Inferno13-11Oct 17LAncient16-14Dust22-13Inferno11-13Sep 2LInferno7-13Anubis11-13+1 earlier meeting
Chinggis Warriors#6512-182-4
NEXVOID vs Chinggis Warriors
Oct 21LInferno1-13Cache13-10Dust211-13Oct 11LNuke13-9Ancient7-13Dust25-13Oct 2LNuke10-13Inferno11-13+9 earlier meetings
DEPO#1221-02-0
NEXVOID vs DEPO
Mar 9WNuke13-5Rare Atom vs DEPO
Mar 11Wseries2-0
Alter Ego#1322-30-4
The Huns#13420-108-6
NEXVOID vs The Huns
Oct 8WAncient13-10Inferno13-5Oct 3LInferno13-4Dust25-13Ancient1-13Sep 28WNuke22-20Ancient13-11+9 earlier meetings
Rare Atom vs The Huns
Sep 27LAncient1-13Dust210-13Sep 1WDust213-7Inferno9-13Mirage13-10Aug 28WCache6-13Dust216-14Mirage22-19+3 earlier meetings
Map lab
NEXVOID55%to win the Bo3 · most likely NEXVOID 2-1
If the veto goes
NEXVOID 55%how the series ends45% Rare Atom
26%2-023%
29%2-122%
NEXVOID57%31-17vsRare Atom43%15-11
65%Win58%
53%CT66%
54%T45%
59%Pistol54%
84%Conv92%
NEXVOID46%17-15vsRare Atom54%27-20
53%Win57%
49%CT56%
46%T51%
44%Pistol57%
75%Conv85%
NEXVOID57%25-12vsRare Atom43%19-12
68%Win61%
58%CT54%
51%T50%
55%Pistol53%
83%Conv88%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
NEXVOIDInfernoRare Atom
53%CT side66%
54%T side45%
59%Pistol54%
84%After win92%
23%After loss8%
NEXVOIDDust2Rare Atom
49%CT side56%
46%T side51%
44%Pistol57%
75%After win85%
14%After loss28%
NEXVOIDAncientRare Atom
58%CT side54%
51%T side50%
55%Pistol53%
83%After win88%
18%After loss24%
Pistol rounds54% · 55% · level, no edge
After a won pistol82% · 88% · Rare Atom keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol19% · 22% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, NEXVOID vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapNEXRAR
MirageNEX bann/a0g48%11-12
NEXVOID on Mirage
no recent maps
NukeRAR ban53%17-15n/a0g
NEXVOID on Nuke
WChinggis Warriors13–911d agoL5star14–1612d agoW133713–820d agoLChinggis Warriors10–1320d agoW
Space13–322d agoWLynn Vision13–1123d agoWThe Huns22–2024d agoLLynn Vision5–1325d agoRare Atom on Nuke
no recent maps
InfernoNEX pick65%31-1758%15-11
Dust2RAR pick53%17-1557%27-20
CacheNEX ban29%2-569%9-4
AnubisRAR ban40%4-640%4-6
Ancientdecider68%25-1261%19-12
Each team's usual first ban: NEXVOID Mirage · Rare Atom Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
NEXVOID
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i35/103 (34%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 103 maps they won, 35 (34%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 34% of their wins were comebacks, not 34% of all games.vs Lynn VisionInfernofrom 9 downvs The HunsInfernofrom 9 downvs MorningstarDust2from 9 downvs The HunsDust2from 8 downvs FlyQuestInfernofrom 8 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i34/76 (45%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 76 maps they lost, 34 (45%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FlyQuestDust2led 11 · lost 2-13vs Chinggis WarriorsNukeled 8 · lost 14-16vs The HunsNukeled 7 · lost 11-13vs Alter EgoInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13vs FlyQuestDust2led 7 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Lynn VisionInfernofrom 9 down · won 19-16
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FlyQuestDust2led 11 · lost 2-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 24Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 24 went to overtime.vs The HunsAncient16-13vs The HunsInferno16-14vs fullwInferno16-12vs The HunsDust216-12vs BMZAncient17-19
Rare Atom
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i22/86 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 86 maps they won, 22 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs NasDust2from 10 downvs Vitalem AeremInfernofrom 7 downvs Vitalem AeremMiragefrom 7 downvs URAncientfrom 6 downvs Just SwingMiragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i25/68 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 68 maps they lost, 25 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MorningstarDust2led 7 · lost 12-16vs URDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs JiJieHaoMirageled 6 · lost 11-13vs NEXVOIDInfernoled 6 · lost 10-13vs Lynn VisionAncientled 5 · lost 16-19
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs NasDust2from 10 down · won 13-6
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MorningstarDust2led 7 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 21Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 21 went to overtime.vs URAncient19-17vs TYLOOInferno17-19vs Lynn VisionAncient19-17vs The HunsDust213-16vs Alter EgoMirage14-16