Predictions
Confident picks
Today
Predictions / Spirit vs BETBOOM · match preview
Spirit vs BETBOOM: CS2 match prediction · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Spirit
World #1 · 48-14
VS
2026-10-24 10:00 UTC
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★★
BETBOOM
World #9 · 7-6
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★★
74%26%
77%
1.24.1Market · 4 books
23%The call · high confidence
Spirit are favoured: our model gives them 74% against BETBOOM. Bookmakers lean Spirit at 77%. Strength clearly favours Spirit, record slightly favours Spirit, form slightly favours BETBOOM, firepower slightly favours Spirit, head-to-head slightly favours Spirit.
Likely mapsAncient · Anubis · Mirage
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
SpiritpullBETBOOM
Team strength1758
165871/29 SPI
Track record48–14
7–659/41 SPI
Recent formLLWWL
LWWWL61/39 BET
Roster rating1.17
1.0766/34 SPI
Head-to-head1 maps
0 maps67/33 SPI
Bookmakers imply 77% for Spirit (1.2 / 4.1); we land 3 points lower at 74%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (148 maps of Spirit, 193 of BETBOOM).
Bottom line: Spirit to beat BETBOOM, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsSpirit · avg 1.17 · star gap +0.29iStar gap: the best player rates 0.29 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
BETBOOM · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
FURIA#35-32-7
Aurora#52-31-2
BETBOOM vs Aurora
Oct 5LMirage4-13Nuke13-7Anubis8-13
Falcons#610-42-1
Spirit vs Falcons
Oct 9WMirage13-8Anubis13-10Sep 5WNuke13-8Ancient13-11Jun 20LAnubis14-16Mirage13-8Dust212-16+3 earlier meetings
BETBOOM vs Falcons
Oct 17WAnubis5-13Dust216-14Mirage13-7
Legacy#72-02-1
Spirit vs Legacy
Aug 22WDust213-7Ancient13-9BETBOOM vs Legacy
Oct 16WNuke16-13Dust211-13Mirage13-11
G2#812-21-2
Spirit vs G2
Aug 28WDust213-6Cache13-9Jun 19WOverpass9-13Dust216-14Mirage25-22May 15WDust213-6Ancient13-11+3 earlier meetings
BETBOOM vs G2
Sep 12LMirage13-7Anubis13-16Ancient7-13
MIBR#121-02-0
Spirit vs MIBR
Jun 6WMirage13-1BETBOOM vs MIBR
Sep 10WMirage13-9Anubis16-14
PARIVISION#133-52-1
Spirit vs PARIVISION
Oct 4WAncient11-13Dust213-6Anubis13-5Mar 21LAnubis3-13Ancient8-13Jan 23LOverpass13-5Mirage9-13Ancient8-13BETBOOM vs PARIVISION
Oct 15WAncient10-13Anubis13-4Mirage13-7
9z#156-10-2
Map lab
Spirit76%to win the Bo3 · most likely Spirit 2-0
If the veto goes
Spirit 76%how the series ends24% BETBOOM
49%2-08%
27%2-116%
Spirit78%18-4vsBETBOOM22%2-3
82%Win40%
61%CT49%
52%T41%
50%Pistol50%
86%Conv100%
Spirit63%12-5vsBETBOOM37%4-3
71%Win57%
52%CT48%
55%T54%
44%Pistol50%
100%Conv86%
Spirit63%21-12vsBETBOOM37%5-5
64%Win50%
58%CT57%
50%T42%
56%Pistol40%
78%Conv88%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
SpiritAncientBETBOOM
61%CT side49%
52%T side41%
50%Pistol50%
86%After win100%
18%After loss40%
SpiritAnubisBETBOOM
52%CT side48%
55%T side54%
44%Pistol50%
100%After win86%
21%After loss14%
SpiritMirageBETBOOM
58%CT side57%
50%T side42%
56%Pistol40%
78%After win88%
14%After loss33%
Pistol rounds51% · 45% · Spirit win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol85% · 90% · BETBOOM keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol17% · 29% · BETBOOM fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Spirit vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapSPIBET
InfernoSPI bann/a0gn/a0g
Spirit on Inferno
no recent maps
BETBOOM on Inferno
no recent maps
Dust2BET ban74%31-1125%1-3
AncientSPI pick82%18-440%2-3
AnubisBET pick71%12-557%4-3
NukeSPI ban63%10-6100%4-0
CacheBET ban56%5-450%2-2
Miragedecider64%21-1250%5-5
Each team's usual first ban: Spirit Inferno · BETBOOM Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Spirit
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i33/102 (32%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 102 maps they won, 33 (32%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 32% of their wins were comebacks, not 32% of all games.vs LuminosityAncientfrom 10 downvs 9zMiragefrom 7 downvs M80Dust2from 7 downvs FURIAMiragefrom 6 downvs FUTAnubisfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i12/46 (26%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 46 maps they lost, 12 (26%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MOUZDust2led 8 · lost 5-13vs MOUZMirageled 7 · lost 11-13vs 9zOverpassled 6 · lost 12-16vs VitalityNukeled 6 · lost 14-16vs FUTCacheled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LuminosityAncientfrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MOUZDust2led 8 · lost 5-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 20Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 20 went to overtime.vs AstralisDust216-13vs Natus VincereMirage16-14vs G2Dust216-13vs FURIAMirage13-16vs VitalityMirage13-16
BETBOOM
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i10/18 (56%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 18 maps they won, 10 (56%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 56% of their wins were comebacks, not 56% of all games.vs FURIANukefrom 8 downvs MIBRAnubisfrom 6 downvs FURIAAncientfrom 6 downvs AstralisAnubisfrom 5 downvs M80Cachefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i6/16 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 16 maps they lost, 6 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FURIACacheled 7 · lost 14-16vs 9zDust2led 6 · lost 8-13vs FURIAAncientled 5 · lost 10-13vs FURIAMirageled 4 · lost 9-13vs LegacyDust2led 4 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FURIANukefrom 8 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FURIACacheled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini4.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi41% · 8Close maps (≤3) · OT41% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 8 went to overtime.vs AstralisAncient16-14vs MIBRAnubis16-14vs G2Anubis13-16vs FURIACache14-16vs M80Cache16-14