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Predictions / Legacy vs Nemiga · match preview
Legacy vs Nemiga: CS2 match prediction · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Legacy
World #7 · 44-28
VS
2026-10-24 13:00 UTC
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 · Best of 3 · ★
Nemiga
World #24 · 87-34
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 · Best of 3 · ★
39%61%
74%
1.253.55Market · 6 books
26%The call
Nemiga are favoured: our model gives them 61% against Legacy. Bookmakers lean Legacy at 74%. Strength slightly favours Nemiga, form slightly favours Nemiga, firepower clearly favours Nemiga.
Likely mapsMirage · Ancient · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
LegacypullNemiga
Team strength1697
176464/36 NEM
Track record44–28
87–3456/44 NEM
Recent formLLWLL
LWLWW64/36 NEM
Roster rating1.12
1.1591/9 NEM
Bookmakers imply 74% for Legacy (1.25 / 3.55); we land 35 points lower at 39%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 98% our own signal (172 maps of Legacy, 295 of Nemiga).
Bottom line: Nemiga to beat Legacy, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsLegacy · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Nemiga · avg 1.15 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
G2#85-21-2
1win#140-26-6
Legacy vs 1win
Oct 5LDust28-13Ancient8-13Nemiga vs 1win
Sep 11WAnubis13-6Dust213-7Aug 25LAnubis14-16Dust26-13Mar 21LMirage10-13Ancient13-4Dust26-13+2 earlier meetings
Astralis#164-01-3
Nemiga vs Astralis
Oct 4LMirage6-13Ancient13-10Nuke5-13Cache7-13
FaZe#170-22-0
Legacy vs FaZe
Aug 13LCache6-13Mirage8-13Nemiga vs FaZe
Oct 1WMirage16-12Ancient13-11
B8#210-23-0
Legacy vs B8
Apr 8LDust29-13Ancient4-13Nemiga vs B8
Sep 12WCache13-10Mirage13-6Ancient19-17
Alliance#292-02-0
Legacy vs Alliance
Sep 9WInferno13-4Dust213-6Nemiga vs Alliance
Oct 2WCache13-6Ancient13-8
Inner Circle#302-12-0
Legacy vs Inner Circle
Apr 5WAncient11-13Nuke13-4Mirage13-9Nemiga vs Inner Circle
Sep 9WAnubis13-10Ancient13-7
HOTU#380-22-3
Legacy vs HOTU
Apr 14LDust27-13Ancient14-16Map lab
Nemiga58%to win the Bo3 · most likely Nemiga 2-1
If the veto goes
Legacy 42%how the series ends58% Nemiga
22%2-025%
21%2-132%
Legacy61%24-8vsNemiga39%28-15
75%Win65%
62%CT57%
50%T47%
56%Pistol59%
83%Conv84%
Legacy36%16-16vsNemiga64%40-22
50%Win65%
52%CT54%
55%T54%
55%Pistol50%
80%Conv82%
Legacy39%2-2vsNemiga61%11-5
50%Win69%
46%CT59%
48%T52%
50%Pistol44%
75%Conv93%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
LegacyMirageNemiga
62%CT side57%
50%T side47%
56%Pistol59%
83%After win84%
21%After loss11%
LegacyAncientNemiga
52%CT side54%
55%T side54%
55%Pistol50%
80%After win82%
21%After loss19%
LegacyCacheNemiga
46%CT side59%
48%T side52%
50%Pistol44%
75%After win93%
50%After loss6%
Pistol rounds55% · 52% · Legacy win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol81% · 84% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol23% · 15% · Legacy fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Legacy vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Nemiga habitually bans Inferno, Legacy's strongest maps (Mirage, Inferno all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Inferno 96/123), not an opponent read, so expect Legacy to fight the veto for Dust2.
MapLEGNEM
AnubisLEG ban50%1-176%34-11
InfernoNEM ban66%19-10100%2-0
MirageLEG pick75%24-865%28-15
AncientNEM pick50%16-1665%40-22
NukeLEG ban54%13-1162%26-16
Dust2NEM ban60%25-1758%30-22
Cachedecider50%2-269%11-5
Each team's usual first ban: Legacy Anubis · Nemiga Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Legacy
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i38/104 (37%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 104 maps they won, 38 (37%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 37% of their wins were comebacks, not 37% of all games.vs MIBRMiragefrom 7 downvs ShindeNNukefrom 7 downvs AuroraOverpassfrom 6 downvs The MongolZInfernofrom 6 downvs Ninjas in PyjamasAncientfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/68 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 68 maps they lost, 21 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BC.GameOverpassled 9 · lost 13-16vs VitalityNukeled 8 · lost 14-16vs 1winDust2led 7 · lost 8-13vs FUTAncientled 5 · lost 10-13vs 9zMirageled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MIBRMiragefrom 7 down · won 16-12
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BC.GameOverpassled 9 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 21Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 21 went to overtime.vs GameHuntersNuke16-13vs MIBRAncient20-22vs BC.GameOverpass13-16vs Ninjas in PyjamasAncient16-13vs G2Inferno16-14
Nemiga
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i62/192 (32%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 192 maps they won, 62 (32%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 32% of their wins were comebacks, not 32% of all games.vs OramondOverpassfrom 10 downvs HOTUCachefrom 9 downvs Black PhoenixCachefrom 9 downvs LavkedAnubisfrom 9 downvs MetizportMiragefrom 8 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i27/97 (28%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 97 maps they lost, 27 (28%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs HOTUCacheled 8 · lost 9-13vs AstralisNukeled 8 · lost 5-13vs 1winMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs HOTUAncientled 6 · lost 14-16vs ARCREDAncientled 5 · lost 12-16
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs OramondOverpassfrom 10 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs HOTUCacheled 8 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi37% · 39Close maps (≤3) · OT37% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 39 went to overtime.vs KOLESIEDust216-14vs ARCREDAncient12-16vs K27Anubis12-16vs mix52Nuke20-22vs GoodGame ClubOverpass16-14