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Predictions / FURIA vs DENDELE · match preview
FURIA vs DENDELE: CS2 match prediction · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
FURIA
World #3 · 44-29
VS
2026-10-24 16:00 UTC
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 · Best of 3 · ★
DENDELE
World #41 · 12-10
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 · Best of 3 · ★
65%35%
81%
1.164.91Market · 1 books
19%The call
FURIA are favoured: our model gives them 65% against DENDELE. Bookmakers lean FURIA at 81%. Strength slightly favours FURIA, form slightly favours FURIA, head-to-head slightly favours DENDELE.
Likely mapsMirage · Cache · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
FURIApullDENDELE
Team strength1708
162867/33 FUR
Track record44–29
12–1052/48 DEN
Recent formWWWWL
LWLWW64/36 FUR
Roster rating1.1
1.1157/43 FUR
Head-to-head1 maps
2 maps60/40 DEN
Bookmakers imply 81% for FURIA (1.16 / 4.91); we land 16 points lower at 65%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 93% our own signal (187 maps of FURIA, 54 of DENDELE). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: DENDELE leads 1–0.
Bottom line: FURIA to beat DENDELE, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsFURIA · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
DENDELE · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.2iStar gap: the best player rates 0.2 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Spirit#13-50-2
Aurora#59-50-2
FURIA vs Aurora
Oct 17WDust213-8Inferno13-10Oct 6LDust213-8Mirage9-13Nuke9-13Aug 19WAncient13-11Nuke14-16Mirage13-9+3 earlier meetings
DENDELE vs Aurora
Aug 28LCache7-13Mirage12-16
FaZe#171-21-2
FURIA vs FaZe
Apr 30LDust24-13Mirage13-7Nuke3-13DENDELE vs FaZe
Jul 25LNuke2-13Mirage13-10Cache7-13
M80#182-03-2
FURIA vs M80
Aug 28WCache16-13Dust213-5
Wildcard#421-03-7
FURIA vs Wildcard
Aug 12WInferno13-10Map lab
FURIA52%to win the Bo3 · most likely FURIA 2-1
If the veto goes
FURIA 52%how the series ends48% DENDELE
20%2-030%
32%2-119%
FURIA53%26-20vsDENDELE47%7-6
57%Win54%
59%CT54%
44%T48%
49%Pistol35%
73%Conv67%
FURIA37%6-7vsDENDELE63%8-5
46%Win62%
48%CT48%
49%T57%
42%Pistol46%
82%Conv92%
FURIA63%17-12vsDENDELE37%3-4
59%Win43%
59%CT69%
50%T35%
55%Pistol64%
84%Conv75%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
FURIAMirageDENDELE
59%CT side54%
44%T side48%
49%Pistol35%
73%After win67%
23%After loss41%
FURIACacheDENDELE
48%CT side48%
49%T side57%
42%Pistol46%
82%After win92%
13%After loss21%
FURIANukeDENDELE
59%CT side69%
50%T side35%
55%Pistol64%
84%After win75%
12%After loss20%
Pistol rounds50% · 45% · FURIA win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol78% · 79% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol18% · 31% · DENDELE fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, FURIA vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapFURDEN
AncientFUR ban42%5-757%4-3
Dust2DEN ban59%22-15n/a0g
FURIA on Dust2
W
BETBOOM13–64d agoWAurora13–85d agoWAurora13–816d agoL
Vitality5–131mo agoL
G23–131mo agoW
GamerLegion13–31mo agoLVitality4–132mo agoWM8013–52mo agoDENDELE on Dust2
no recent maps
MirageFUR pick57%26-2054%7-6
CacheDEN pick46%6-762%8-5
AnubisFUR ban38%3-557%4-3
InfernoDEN ban59%16-1171%5-2
Nukedecider59%17-1243%3-4
Each team's usual first ban: FURIA Ancient · DENDELE Dust2.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
FURIA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i31/103 (30%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 103 maps they won, 31 (30%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 30% of their wins were comebacks, not 30% of all games.vs G2Ancientfrom 10 downvs VitalityMiragefrom 7 downvs The MongolZDust2from 7 downvs Natus VincereNukefrom 7 downvs BETBOOMCachefrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i30/84 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 84 maps they lost, 30 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs G2Anubisled 10 · lost 3-13vs BETBOOMNukeled 8 · lost 9-13vs AuroraMirageled 7 · lost 9-13vs AuroraDust2led 6 · lost 14-16vs FalconsNukeled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs G2Ancientfrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs G2Anubisled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 22Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 22 went to overtime.vs The MongolZInferno16-12vs SpiritMirage16-13vs FUTOverpass22-18vs FalconsMirage16-14vs PARIVISIONDust216-14
DENDELE
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i9/31 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 31 maps they won, 9 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs M80Ancientfrom 7 downvs ImperialNukefrom 6 downvs Turma do PagodeAncientfrom 5 downvs M80Miragefrom 4 downvs WildcardMiragefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i8/23 (35%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 23 maps they lost, 8 (35%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs JiJieHaoInfernoled 7 · lost 14-16vs AuroraMirageled 6 · lost 12-16vs SpiritAncientled 4 · lost 8-13vs EYEBALLERSAncientled 4 · lost 11-13vs WildcardMirageled 4 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs M80Ancientfrom 7 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs JiJieHaoInfernoled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 9Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 9 went to overtime.vs FURIACache16-14vs JiJieHaoInferno14-16vs AuroraMirage12-16vs Turma do PagodeAncient16-12vs FluxoNuke13-16