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Predictions / Imperial vs Turma do Pagode · match preview
Imperial vs Turma do Pagode: CS2 match prediction · Circuit X Curitiba Season 4
Imperial
World #53 · 64-33
VS
2026-10-22 14:00 UTC
Circuit X Curitiba Season 4 · Best of 3
Turma do Pagode
World #102 · 25-14
Circuit X Curitiba Season 4 · Best of 3
69%31%
81%
1.144.96Market · 1 books
19%The call
Imperial are favoured: our model gives them 69% against Turma do Pagode. Bookmakers lean Imperial at 81%. Strength clearly favours Imperial.
Likely mapsNuke · Cache · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
ImperialpullTurma do Pagode
Team strength1708
161070/30 IMP
Track record64–33
25–1454/46 IMP
Recent formLWWLW
LLWWW56/44 IMP
Roster rating1.16
1.0351/49 TUR
Bookmakers imply 81% for Imperial (1.14 / 4.96); we land 12 points lower at 69%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 96% our own signal (234 maps of Imperial, 90 of Turma do Pagode).
Bottom line: Imperial to beat Turma do Pagode, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsImperial · avg 1.16 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Turma do Pagode · avg 1.03 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Imperial
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
paiN#325-10-4
DENDELE#410-50-2
Turma do Pagode vs DENDELE
Sep 9LAncient12-16Mirage10-13
ShindeN#528-102-4
Imperial vs ShindeN
Sep 1WDust213-9Cache16-19Inferno19-16Aug 28WInferno13-4Cache13-7Jul 30LMirage14-16Nuke13-9Inferno9-13+4 earlier meetings
Galorys#6914-76-4
Imperial vs Galorys
Sep 24WCache16-12Inferno13-6Sep 9WInferno13-5Anubis13-5Sep 1WAnubis13-11Dust213-9+7 earlier meetings
Turma do Pagode vs Galorys
Oct 9LAncient10-13Nuke11-13Oct 4WAnubis4-13Nuke13-10Ancient13-8Sep 28WAnubis13-10Ancient13-7+1 earlier meeting
Bounty Hunters#8216-1110-3
Imperial vs Bounty Hunters
Sep 26WMirage13-9Nuke13-7Sep 17WMirage13-6Cache8-13Nuke13-4Sep 6LMirage13-10Nuke11-13Dust28-13+7 earlier meetings
Turma do Pagode vs Bounty Hunters
Oct 4WMirage13-1Ancient19-17Sep 23WDust21-13Mirage13-6Ancient13-11Aug 27WAncient13-11Mirage13-4+2 earlier meetings
LP#1036-22-2
Imperial vs LP
Jul 12WMirage13-11Inferno13-4Jul 9WMirage13-7Inferno13-1May 10LDust210-13Inferno5-13+1 earlier meeting
Procyon#1122-02-2
Imperial vs Procyon
Aug 3WMirage13-9Nuke13-3
ALKA#1526-18-3
Imperial vs ALKA
Sep 4WMirage13-7Inferno13-2Aug 5WDust213-9Mirage2-13Nuke13-9Jul 6WMirage13-10Nuke13-11Turma do Pagode vs ALKA
Sep 27WAncient13-11Dust24-13Inferno13-6Sep 16WDust213-1Ancient16-12Sep 16WAncient13-10Dust211-13Inferno13-5+1 earlier meeting
Map lab
Imperial70%to win the Bo3 · most likely Imperial 2-0
If the veto goes
Imperial 70%how the series ends30% Turma do Pagode
38%2-010%
32%2-121%
Imperial82%29-14vsTurma do Pagode18%2-6
67%Win25%
62%CT50%
50%T39%
63%Pistol38%
80%Conv83%
Imperial46%10-5vsTurma do Pagode54%2-0
67%Win100%
59%CT67%
53%T50%
53%Pistol25%
75%Conv100%
Imperial60%25-16vsTurma do Pagode40%12-12
61%Win50%
59%CT49%
50%T49%
51%Pistol46%
78%Conv68%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
ImperialNukeTurma do Pagode
62%CT side50%
50%T side39%
63%Pistol38%
80%After win83%
22%After loss20%
ImperialCacheTurma do Pagode
59%CT side67%
53%T side50%
53%Pistol25%
75%After win100%
14%After loss0%
ImperialDust2Turma do Pagode
59%CT side49%
50%T side49%
51%Pistol46%
78%After win68%
28%After loss23%
Pistol rounds57% · 43% · Imperial win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol78% · 72% · Imperial keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol23% · 21% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Imperial vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Turma do Pagode habitually bans Mirage, Imperial's strongest maps (Nuke, Mirage, Anubis, Dust2, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Mirage 27/39), not an opponent read, so expect Imperial to fight the veto for Mirage.
MapIMPTUR
AncientIMP bann/a0g74%23-8
Imperial on Ancient
no recent maps
MirageTUR ban63%33-1975%3-1
Imperial on Mirage
LDENDELE8–1311d agoW
SportsBetExpert16–1412d agoWpaiN13–625d agoWBounty Hunters13–926d agoWBounty Hunters13–61mo agoWpaiN13–101mo agoWBounty Hunters13–102mo agoWALKA13–72mo agoTurma do Pagode on Mirage
WBounty Hunters13–118d agoWBounty Hunters13–629d agoLDENDELE10–131mo agoWBounty Hunters13–42mo agoNukeIMP pick67%29-1425%2-6
CacheTUR pick67%10-5100%2-0
AnubisIMP ban72%13-550%6-6
InfernoTUR ban56%25-2050%3-3
Dust2decider61%25-1650%12-12
Each team's usual first ban: Imperial Ancient · Turma do Pagode Mirage.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Imperial
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i36/143 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 143 maps they won, 36 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs ShindeNInfernofrom 10 downvs paiNAnubisfrom 10 downvs ODDIKAnubisfrom 8 downvs Fake do BiruMiragefrom 7 downvs ShindeNCachefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i29/86 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 86 maps they lost, 29 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs NRGInfernoled 10 · lost 4-13vs ShindeNMirageled 6 · lost 11-13vs DENDELENukeled 6 · lost 10-13vs ODDIKDust2led 5 · lost 10-13vs METANOIAInfernoled 5 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ShindeNInfernofrom 10 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs NRGInfernoled 10 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi37% · 33Close maps (≤3) · OT37% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 33 went to overtime.vs ShindeNNuke13-16vs ShindeNOverpass17-19vs SharksInferno17-19vs ODDIKAnubis16-14vs Bounty HuntersNuke17-19
Turma do Pagode
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i21/53 (40%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 53 maps they won, 21 (40%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 40% of their wins were comebacks, not 40% of all games.vs MIBR feAnubisfrom 10 downvs YawaraAncientfrom 9 downvs Bounty HuntersAncientfrom 8 downvs MEIA NOITEDust2from 8 downvs YawaraAnubisfrom 8 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i14/37 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 37 maps they lost, 14 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs GalorysAnubisled 10 · lost 4-13vs Keyd StarsAncientled 7 · lost 11-13vs ALKADust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs BORRACHEIROSAnubisled 6 · lost 8-13vs DENDELEAncientled 5 · lost 12-16
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MIBR feAnubisfrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs GalorysAnubisled 10 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi40% · 9Close maps (≤3) · OT40% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 9 went to overtime.vs METANOIA WolvesDust216-19vs YawaraAncient14-16vs IsurusInferno16-14vs DENDELEAncient12-16vs ShindeNDust216-13