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Predictions / UPGRADE vs Virtus.pro · match preview
UPGRADE vs Virtus.pro: CS2 match prediction · WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 9
UPGRADE
World #74 · 16-14
VS
2026-10-22 20:30 UTC
WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 9 · Best of 3
Virtus.pro
World #56 · 31-17
WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 9 · Best of 3
36%64%
40%
2.31.55Market · 5 books
60%The call
Virtus.pro are favoured: our model gives them 64% against UPGRADE. Bookmakers lean Virtus.pro at 60%. Strength clearly favours Virtus.pro, record slightly favours Virtus.pro, firepower slightly favours Virtus.pro.
Likely mapsAnubis · Dust2 · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
UPGRADEpullVirtus.pro
Team strength1560
167673/27 VIR
Track record16–14
31–1757/43 VIR
Recent formWLWLL
WWLLW54/46 VIR
Roster rating1.14
1.2461/39 VIR
Bookmakers imply 40% for UPGRADE (2.3 / 1.55); we land 4 points lower at 36%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 94% our own signal (70 maps of UPGRADE, 119 of Virtus.pro).
Bottom line: Virtus.pro to beat UPGRADE, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsUPGRADE · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| pleynnn★ | 1.14 | 83.3 | 75.5% | 60% | 1.26 |
| SquEzxc | 1.19 | 79.1 | 73% | 34% | 1.2 |
| synyx | 0.97 | 70.9 | 74.2% | 58% | 1.14 |
| DAN9ARMATURA | 0.97 | 68.2 | 74.1% | 57% | 1.06 |
| tw1sterzaza | 0.99 | 74 | 69.8% | 54% | 1.06 |
Virtus.pro · avg 1.24 · star gap +0.41iStar gap: the best player rates 0.41 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
UPGRADE
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
HOTU#381-23-0
UPGRADE vs HOTU
Aug 31LAnubis8-13Nuke19-15Dust22-13Virtus.pro vs HOTU
Sep 13WDust216-14Anubis13-6Ancient16-13
K27#461-27-4
UPGRADE vs K27
Oct 2LDust213-10Cache16-19Anubis6-13Virtus.pro vs K27
Sep 11WCache13-10Dust213-8Sep 9LAnubis5-13Cache16-14Mirage3-13Jun 19WNuke19-17Overpass10-13Mirage13-9+1 earlier meeting
BBL#480-10-2
UPGRADE vs BBL
Sep 6LMirage11-13Virtus.pro vs BBL
Sep 22LNuke0-13Mirage5-13
Nuclear TigeRES#502-10-1
UPGRADE vs Nuclear TigeRES
Sep 13WDust25-13Cache13-8Anubis13-11Virtus.pro vs Nuclear TigeRES
Jan 17LInferno10-13
Black Phoenix#553-22-0
Virtus.pro vs Black Phoenix
Oct 21WNuke13-1Mirage13-3
BET-M#791-22-0
UPGRADE vs BET-M
Aug 26LNuke11-13Anubis13-10Dust210-13Virtus.pro vs BET-M
May 27WNuke16-12Ancient13-6
CYBERSHOKE2-14-0
UPGRADE vs CYBERSHOKE
Sep 13WCache11-13Dust213-7Ancient13-9Map lab
Virtus.pro53%to win the Bo3 · most likely Virtus.pro 2-1
If the veto goes
UPGRADE 47%how the series ends53% Virtus.pro
31%2-019%
16%2-134%
UPGRADE59%11-10vsVirtus.pro41%5-7
52%Win42%
50%CT50%
54%T48%
55%Pistol58%
86%Conv79%
UPGRADE52%11-7vsVirtus.pro48%18-13
61%Win58%
57%CT47%
49%T54%
47%Pistol42%
82%Conv81%
UPGRADE32%6-3vsVirtus.pro68%10-2
67%Win83%
68%CT54%
43%T55%
56%Pistol63%
89%Conv93%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
UPGRADEAnubisVirtus.pro
50%CT side50%
54%T side48%
55%Pistol58%
86%After win79%
11%After loss20%
UPGRADEDust2Virtus.pro
57%CT side47%
49%T side54%
47%Pistol42%
82%After win81%
11%After loss22%
UPGRADEAncientVirtus.pro
68%CT side54%
43%T side55%
56%Pistol63%
89%After win93%
0%After loss33%
Pistol rounds52% · 50% · level, no edge
After a won pistol85% · 84% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol9% · 24% · Virtus.pro fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, UPGRADE vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Virtus.pro habitually bans Inferno, UPGRADE's strongest maps (Dust2, Inferno, Ancient all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Inferno 37/48), not an opponent read, so expect UPGRADE to fight the veto for Anubis.
MapUPGVIR
MirageUPG ban40%2-364%16-9
InfernoVIR ban67%2-10%0-2
AnubisUPG pick52%11-1042%5-7
Dust2VIR pick61%11-758%18-13
CacheUPG ban20%1-460%6-4
NukeVIR ban33%3-664%9-5
Ancientdecider67%6-383%10-2
Each team's usual first ban: UPGRADE Mirage · Virtus.pro Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
UPGRADE
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i13/36 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 36 maps they won, 13 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs FORZE ReloadAnubisfrom 8 downvs Black PhoenixAnubisfrom 8 downvs INOX DivisionAncientfrom 6 downvs FORZE ReloadMiragefrom 6 downvs HOTUNukefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i17/34 (50%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 34 maps they lost, 17 (50%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ButterflyAncientled 10 · lost 3-13vs ButterflyDust2led 8 · lost 11-13vs BBLMirageled 7 · lost 11-13vs ColorMirageled 7 · lost 10-13vs ex-CYBERSHOKEAncientled 7 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FORZE ReloadAnubisfrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ButterflyAncientled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi39% · 9Close maps (≤3) · OT39% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 9 went to overtime.vs HOTUNuke19-15vs FORZE ReloadDust216-14vs INOX DivisionAncient16-14vs ColorAnubis14-16vs Just PlayersNuke13-16
Virtus.pro
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i29/70 (41%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 70 maps they won, 29 (41%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 41% of their wins were comebacks, not 41% of all games.vs XMETACachefrom 13 downvs CYBERSHOKEDust2from 9 downvs WBTDust2from 7 downvs 1winOverpassfrom 6 downvs PsychoFaceMiragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i15/47 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 47 maps they lost, 15 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs fnaticAnubisled 7 · lost 13-16vs GenOneDust2led 5 · lost 11-13vs K27Overpassled 5 · lost 10-13vs ex-RUBYMirageled 5 · lost 14-16vs SashiDust2led 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 13 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs XMETACachefrom 13 down · won 13-0
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs fnaticAnubisled 7 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi38% · 15Close maps (≤3) · OT38% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 15 went to overtime.vs RUSTECOverpass12-16vs BET-MNuke16-12vs ARCREDAncient22-20vs OxujiDust216-13vs K27Nuke19-17