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Predictions / Aurora vs Liquid · match preview
Aurora vs Liquid: CS2 match prediction · IEM Beijing 2026
IEM Beijing 2026 · Best of 3 · ★
68%32%
74%
1.263.6Market · 23 books
26%The call
Aurora are favoured: our model gives them 68% against Liquid. Bookmakers lean Aurora at 74%. Strength clearly favours Aurora, record slightly favours Aurora, form clearly favours Aurora.
Likely mapsAnubis · Mirage · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
AurorapullLiquid
Team strength1732
163071/29 AUR
Track record46–30
34–3459/41 AUR
Recent formWLWWL
LLLWL75/25 AUR
Roster rating1.12
1.1152/48 LIQ
Bookmakers imply 74% for Aurora (1.26 / 3.6); we land 6 points lower at 68%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (179 maps of Aurora, 147 of Liquid).
Bottom line: Aurora to beat Liquid, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsAurora · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Liquid · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Spirit#13-20-6
Vitality#24-122-0
Aurora vs Vitality
Oct 10LAnubis13-7Cache7-13Mirage8-13Sep 20LAnubis4-13Inferno13-11Mirage4-13Cache7-13Sep 19WAnubis13-7Inferno11-13Nuke13-8+3 earlier meetings
Liquid vs Vitality
Jul 24WAnubis13-10Nuke13-9
Falcons#64-40-2
Aurora vs Falcons
Oct 18WAnubis8-13Dust219-17Nuke13-9Oct 4LMirage4-13Dust210-13Feb 1WAnubis13-7Mirage10-13Inferno13-8Liquid vs Falcons
Jan 22LNuke14-16Dust28-13
G2#85-43-2
Aurora vs G2
Aug 31LAnubis13-7Inferno16-19Mirage1-13Aug 26LInferno5-13Anubis12-16Jun 13WOverpass13-8Anubis13-7+1 earlier meeting
FUT#101-20-2
Aurora vs FUT
Feb 14LMirage6-13Anubis16-13Overpass6-13Liquid vs FUT
Jan 30LAncient4-13Nuke9-13
PARIVISION#133-20-1
Liquid vs PARIVISION
May 20LDust29-13
1win#142-01-2
Aurora vs 1win
Oct 9WDust213-9Anubis13-8Liquid vs 1win
Aug 9LDust25-13Anubis13-6Cache7-13
Astralis#164-10-2
Liquid vs Astralis
May 12LDust24-13Ancient11-13Map lab
Liquid50%to win the Bo3 · most likely Liquid 2-1
If the veto goes
Aurora 50%how the series ends50% Liquid
27%2-022%
22%2-128%
Aurora58%18-9vsLiquid42%10-7
67%Win59%
57%CT53%
53%T58%
57%Pistol53%
94%Conv72%
Aurora47%20-14vsLiquid53%15-9
59%Win63%
54%CT57%
45%T46%
53%Pistol60%
78%Conv69%
Aurora44%5-4vsLiquid56%8-5
56%Win62%
50%CT51%
51%T56%
89%Pistol58%
94%Conv87%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
AuroraAnubisLiquid
57%CT side53%
53%T side58%
57%Pistol53%
94%After win72%
9%After loss13%
AuroraMirageLiquid
54%CT side57%
45%T side46%
53%Pistol60%
78%After win69%
16%After loss5%
AuroraCacheLiquid
50%CT side51%
51%T side56%
89%Pistol58%
94%After win87%
0%After loss18%
Pistol rounds59% · 57% · level, no edge
After a won pistol87% · 74% · Aurora keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol12% · 11% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Aurora vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapAURLIQ
AncientAUR ban0%0-231%5-11
Dust2LIQ ban61%23-1530%7-16
AnubisAUR pick67%18-959%10-7
MirageLIQ pick59%20-1463%15-9
NukeAUR ban54%15-1348%15-16
InfernoLIQ ban60%15-1062%13-8
Cachedecider56%5-462%8-5
Each team's usual first ban: Aurora Ancient · Liquid Overpass.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Aurora
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i27/105 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 105 maps they won, 27 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs AstralisDust2from 8 downvs NRGCachefrom 7 downvs FURIAMiragefrom 7 downvs FUTAnubisfrom 6 downvs FURIADust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i33/74 (45%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 74 maps they lost, 33 (45%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs VitalityAnubisled 9 · lost 4-13vs VitalityMirageled 9 · lost 4-13vs LegacyOverpassled 6 · lost 8-13vs MOUZDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs FURIAMirageled 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs AstralisDust2from 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs VitalityAnubisled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi28% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT28% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs GamerLegionInferno13-16vs VitalityAncient22-25vs FUTAnubis16-13vs Natus VincereInferno12-16vs B8Mirage16-13
Liquid
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i19/73 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 73 maps they won, 19 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs BBLMiragefrom 11 downvs The MongolZMiragefrom 6 downvs M80Miragefrom 5 downvs Ninjas in PyjamasMiragefrom 4 downvs Inner CircleMiragefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i20/72 (28%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 72 maps they lost, 20 (28%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs OGAncientled 7 · lost 8-13vs 3DMAXNukeled 7 · lost 14-16vs magicDust2led 7 · lost 10-13vs SashiNukeled 6 · lost 10-13vs PARIVISIONDust2led 5 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs BBLMiragefrom 11 down · won 13-8
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs OGAncientled 7 · lost 8-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs Ninjas in PyjamasAncient16-13vs FalconsNuke14-16vs G2Anubis14-16vs Passion UANuke15-19vs M80Mirage16-13