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Predictions / Low Cortisol BR vs Grêmio · match preview
Low Cortisol BR vs Grêmio: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 South America Series 7
LOW
Low Cortisol BR
World #– · 1-3
VS
2026-10-22 22:00 UTC
CCT 2026 South America Series 7 · Best of 3
Grêmio
World #214 · 9-17
CCT 2026 South America Series 7 · Best of 3
51%49%
38%
2.381.47Market · 1 books
62%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 51–49. Bookmakers lean Grêmio at 62%. Form slightly favours Grêmio.
Likely mapsDust2 · Inferno · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Low Cortisol BRpullGrêmio
Team strength1479
146154/46 LOW
Track record1–3
9–1754/46 GRÊ
Recent formLLLW
WLLLW67/33 GRÊ
Roster rating1.02
1.0756/44 GRÊ
Bookmakers imply 38% for Low Cortisol BR (2.38 / 1.47); we land 13 points higher at 51%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 70% our own signal (9 maps of Low Cortisol BR, 63 of Grêmio).
Bottom line: Low Cortisol BR to beat Grêmio, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsLow Cortisol BR · avg 1.02 · star gap +0.17iStar gap: the best player rates 0.17 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Grêmio · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.13iStar gap: the best player rates 0.13 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| spinnie★ | 1.22 | 90.4 | 81.2% | 64% | 1.2 |
| balencyy | 1.02 | 82.7 | 70.9% | 56% | 1.18 |
| MITHPUTTINI | 1.06 | 65.7 | 69.7% | 36% | 1.02 |
| s1lent | 0.92 | 67.7 | 68.7% | 52% | 1 |
| yeda | 0.84 | 63.2 | 66.8% | 61% | 0.96 |
Recent form
Low Cortisol BR
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Galorys#690-22-2
Low Cortisol BR vs Galorys
Sep 23LDust28-13Ancient7-13
Yawara#1572-01-4
Low Cortisol BR vs Yawara
Sep 22WMirage13-9Dust213-4MEIMEIA NOITE1-21-2
Low Cortisol BR vs MEIA NOITE
Sep 24LAncient13-8Dust26-13Nuke10-13Grêmio vs MEIA NOITE
Sep 2LNuke9-13Ancient13-11Dust214-16Map lab
Grêmio54%to win the Bo3 · most likely Grêmio 2-0
If the veto goes
Low Cortisol BR 46%how the series ends54% Grêmio
21%2-029%
25%2-125%
Low Cortisol BR41%1-3vsGrêmio59%5-6
25%Win45%
39%CT48%
42%T48%
38%Pistol64%
67%Conv79%
Low Cortisol BR50%0-0thinGrêmio50%10-7
–Win59%
–CT50%
–T55%
–Pistol65%
–Conv77%
Low Cortisol BR51%0-1vsGrêmio49%2-6
0%Win25%
58%CT54%
27%T40%
100%Pistol56%
100%Conv67%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Low Cortisol BRDust2Grêmio
39%CT side48%
42%T side48%
38%Pistol64%
67%After win79%
20%After loss13%
Low Cortisol BRInfernoGrêmio
–CT side50%
–T side55%
–Pistol65%
–After win77%
–After loss8%
Low Cortisol BRNukeGrêmio
58%CT side54%
27%T side40%
100%Pistol56%
100%After win67%
–After loss29%
Pistol rounds50% · 63% · Grêmio win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol80% · 76% · Low Cortisol BR keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol20% · 15% · Low Cortisol BR fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Low Cortisol BR vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapLOWGRÊ
AnubisLOW bann/a0gn/a0g
Low Cortisol BR on Anubis
no recent maps
Grêmio on Anubis
no recent maps
MirageGRÊ ban50%1-120%2-8
Dust2LOW pick25%1-345%5-6
InfernoGRÊ pickn/a0g59%10-7
Low Cortisol BR on Inferno
no recent maps
CacheLOW bann/a0g29%2-5
Low Cortisol BR on Cache
no recent maps
AncientGRÊ ban50%1-140%4-6
Nukedecider0%0-125%2-6
Each team's usual first ban: Low Cortisol BR Anubis · Grêmio Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Low Cortisol BR
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/3 (67%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 3 maps they won, 2 (67%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 67% of their wins were comebacks, not 67% of all games.vs YawaraMiragefrom 5 downvs MEIA NOITEAncientfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i4/6 (67%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 6 maps they lost, 4 (67%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MEIA NOITEDust2led 7 · lost 6-13vs BESTIA AcademyMirageled 7 · lost 10-13vs MEIA NOITENukeled 4 · lost 10-13vs GalorysDust2led 3 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs YawaraMiragefrom 5 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MEIA NOITEDust2led 7 · lost 6-13
Avg map margini5.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi22% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT22% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample
Grêmio
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i12/25 (48%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 25 maps they won, 12 (48%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 48% of their wins were comebacks, not 48% of all games.vs ALKANukefrom 10 downvs paiN AcademyInfernofrom 6 downvs your endCachefrom 6 downvs paiN AcademyDust2from 4 downvs GalorysInfernofrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i18/38 (47%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 38 maps they lost, 18 (47%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs IsurusCacheled 6 · lost 7-13vs YawaraAncientled 6 · lost 9-13vs Patins da FerrariMirageled 5 · lost 8-13vs ALKAAncientled 5 · lost 11-13vs Keyd StarsMirageled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ALKANukefrom 10 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs IsurusCacheled 6 · lost 7-13
Avg map margini5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi44% · 11Close maps (≤3) · OT44% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 11 went to overtime.vs Patins da FerrariCache14-16vs paiN AcademyNuke13-16vs paiN AcademyInferno22-18vs MEIA NOITEDust214-16vs IsurusDust216-14