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Predictions / ALKA vs LOS NINOS · match preview
ALKA vs LOS NINOS: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 South America Series 7
ALKA
World #152 · 29-29
VS
2026-10-23 13:00 UTC
CCT 2026 South America Series 7 · Best of 3
LOS NINOS
World #– · 2-2
CCT 2026 South America Series 7 · Best of 3
59%41%
71%
1.313.2Market · 9 books
29%The call
ALKA are favoured: our model gives them 59% against LOS NINOS. Bookmakers lean ALKA at 71%. Form slightly favours LOS NINOS, firepower slightly favours LOS NINOS.
Likely mapsDust2 · Ancient · Mirage
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
ALKApullLOS NINOS
Team strength1512
150452/48 ALK
Track record29–29
2–253/47 LOS
Recent formLLWLW
WLLW60/40 LOS
Roster rating1.06
1.0564/36 LOS
Bookmakers imply 71% for ALKA (1.31 / 3.2); we land 12 points lower at 59%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 74% our own signal (135 maps of ALKA, 11 of LOS NINOS).
Bottom line: ALKA to beat LOS NINOS, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsALKA · avg 1.06 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| proSHOW★ | 1.17 | 72.7 | 72% | 34% | 1.15 |
| bnc | 0.98 | 77.6 | 70.3% | 53% | 1.09 |
| cerolzin | 1 | 71.1 | 70.8% | 49% | 1.08 |
| vinaabEAST | 0.99 | 76.4 | 70.7% | 57% | 1.08 |
| puni | 0.81 | 63.4 | 68.3% | 57% | 0.92 |
LOS NINOS · avg 1.05 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
ALKA
LOS NINOS
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Procyon#1125-21-2
ALKA vs Procyon
Sep 22LInferno5-13Dust213-10Nuke5-13Sep 5WDust213-8Inferno22-20Jul 21WAncient13-5Dust213-11LOS NINOS vs Procyon
Oct 16LInferno13-11Mirage1-13Dust29-13QUIQUINTESSÊNCIA#1962-11-2
ALKA vs QUINTESSÊNCIA
Aug 17WCache11-13Ancient13-5Mirage13-7LOS NINOS vs QUINTESSÊNCIA
Oct 20LAncient13-8Mirage6-13Dust25-13
Grêmio#2144-22-1
LOS NINOS vs Grêmio
Oct 13WMirage13-9Inferno5-13Ancient16-13Map lab
ALKA52%to win the Bo3 · most likely ALKA 2-1
If the veto goes
ALKA 52%how the series ends48% LOS NINOS
21%2-026%
31%2-123%
ALKA61%23-14vsLOS NINOS39%0-2
62%Win0%
54%CT42%
51%T25%
46%Pistol25%
74%Conv100%
ALKA34%13-15vsLOS NINOS66%3-0
46%Win100%
51%CT58%
48%T58%
52%Pistol50%
72%Conv100%
ALKA58%9-7vsLOS NINOS42%1-2
56%Win33%
60%CT38%
40%T35%
47%Pistol17%
80%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
ALKADust2LOS NINOS
54%CT side42%
51%T side25%
46%Pistol25%
74%After win100%
23%After loss0%
ALKAAncientLOS NINOS
51%CT side58%
48%T side58%
52%Pistol50%
72%After win100%
19%After loss67%
ALKAMirageLOS NINOS
60%CT side38%
40%T side35%
47%Pistol17%
80%After win100%
18%After loss20%
Pistol rounds48% · 31% · ALKA win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol74% · 100% · LOS NINOS keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol20% · 27% · LOS NINOS fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, ALKA vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapALKLOS
AnubisALK ban14%1-6n/a0g
ALKA on Anubis
W
BESTIA Academy13–915d agoLUNO MILLE6–135mo agoLUNO MILLE2–136mo agoLCharrados7–137mo agoL
Marsborne4–137mo agoL
paiN7–137mo agoL
Keyd Stars11–137mo agoLOS NINOS on Anubis
no recent maps
CacheLOS ban43%3-4n/a0g
ALKA on Cache
LSementes do Mal22–2528d agoL
ODDIK1–132mo agoLQUINTESSÊNCIA11–132mo agoW
paiN Academy13–72mo agoWBESTIA13–82mo agoWUNO MILLE13–93mo agoL
GameHunters13–163mo agoLOS NINOS on Cache
no recent maps
Dust2ALK pick62%23-140%0-2
AncientLOS pick46%13-15100%3-0
InfernoALK ban57%8-667%2-1
NukeLOS ban40%10-15n/a0g
Miragedecider56%9-733%1-2
Each team's usual first ban: ALKA Anubis · LOS NINOS Cache.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
ALKA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i26/68 (38%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 68 maps they won, 26 (38%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 38% of their wins were comebacks, not 38% of all games.vs paiN AcademyNukefrom 9 downvs ProcyonAncientfrom 8 downvs BORRACHEIROSNukefrom 7 downvs PugdesonestoAncientfrom 7 downvs BORRACHEIROSDust2from 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i18/67 (27%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 67 maps they lost, 18 (27%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs GrêmioNukeled 10 · lost 11-13vs ShindeNDust2led 8 · lost 11-13vs ProcyonInfernoled 8 · lost 5-13vs PugdesonestoAncientled 6 · lost 10-13vs Turma do PagodeAncientled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs paiN AcademyNukefrom 9 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs GrêmioNukeled 10 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 11Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 11 went to overtime.vs GameHuntersCache13-16vs paiN AcademyNuke16-13vs paiN AcademyMirage19-16vs BORRACHEIROSNuke16-13vs BESTIAAncient15-19
LOS NINOS
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/6 (17%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 6 maps they won, 1 (17%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 17% of their wins were comebacks, not 17% of all games.vs GrêmioAncientfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i1/5 (20%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 5 maps they lost, 1 (20%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ProcyonDust2led 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 4 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs GrêmioAncientfrom 4 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ProcyonDust2led 6 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini5.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi18% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT18% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs GrêmioAncient16-13