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Predictions / BORRACHEIROS vs QUINTESSÊNCIA · match preview
BORRACHEIROS vs QUINTESSÊNCIA: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 South America Series 7
BORQUI
BORRACHEIROS
World #176 · 12-13
VS
2026-10-23 16:00 UTC
CCT 2026 South America Series 7 · Best of 3
QUINTESSÊNCIA
World #196 · 12-11
CCT 2026 South America Series 7 · Best of 3
58%42%
61%
1.52.31Market · 1 books
39%The call
BORRACHEIROS are favoured: our model gives them 58% against QUINTESSÊNCIA. Bookmakers lean BORRACHEIROS at 61%. Record slightly favours QUINTESSÊNCIA, firepower clearly favours BORRACHEIROS.
Likely mapsMirage · Dust2 · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
BORRACHEIROSpullQUINTESSÊNCIA
Team strength1504
150951/49 QUI
Track record12–13
12–1158/42 QUI
Recent formLWWWL
WLWWL52/48 QUI
Roster rating1.15
1.0579/21 BOR
Bookmakers imply 61% for BORRACHEIROS (1.5 / 2.31); we land 3 points lower at 58%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 93% our own signal (61 maps of BORRACHEIROS, 52 of QUINTESSÊNCIA).
Bottom line: BORRACHEIROS to beat QUINTESSÊNCIA, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBORRACHEIROS · avg 1.15 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
QUINTESSÊNCIA · avg 1.05 · star gap +0.13iStar gap: the best player rates 0.13 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mello★ | 0.95 | 77.6 | 68.2% | 30% | 1.18 |
| prozinszsz | 1.03 | 78.6 | 72.5% | 48% | 1.15 |
| cz1k4 | 0.95 | 65.1 | 72.8% | 51% | 1.02 |
| lipshawty | 0.98 | 71.9 | 73.1% | 68% | 1.02 |
| n0page | 0.75 | 62.6 | 69.8% | 46% | 0.88 |
Recent form
BORRACHEIROS
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Bounty Hunters#820-21-2
BORRACHEIROS vs Bounty Hunters
Oct 11LMirage5-13Ancient10-13QUINTESSÊNCIA vs Bounty Hunters
Sep 5LCache6-13Dust213-2Mirage4-13
Turma do Pagode#1021-20-1
BORRACHEIROS vs Turma do Pagode
Oct 7LAnubis13-8Dust26-13Ancient6-13QUINTESSÊNCIA vs Turma do Pagode
Apr 24LAncient11-13
Procyon#1122-01-2
BORRACHEIROS vs Procyon
Oct 10WInferno13-1Mirage16-14QUINTESSÊNCIA vs Procyon
Sep 25LDust213-10Inferno9-13Ancient9-13
ALKA#1521-81-2
BORRACHEIROS vs ALKA
Sep 25LDust27-13Mirage9-13Sep 1LMirage9-13Dust24-13Aug 9LInferno6-13Nuke13-16+1 earlier meeting
QUINTESSÊNCIA vs ALKA
Aug 17LCache13-11Ancient5-13Mirage7-13
Grêmio#2142-01-2
BORRACHEIROS vs Grêmio
Oct 9WInferno13-10Mirage13-5QUINTESSÊNCIA vs Grêmio
Sep 30LInferno7-13Cache19-17Dust213-16
DAMAJUANA#2334-12-0
QUINTESSÊNCIA vs DAMAJUANA
Oct 16WAnubis13-7Mirage13-8SEMSementes do Mal#2472-02-0
BORRACHEIROS vs Sementes do Mal
Sep 27WMirage13-6Dust219-17QUINTESSÊNCIA vs Sementes do Mal
Sep 19WCache13-5Mirage13-3MEIMEIA NOITE2-33-4
QUINTESSÊNCIA vs MEIA NOITE
Oct 8LInferno13-10Ancient10-13Dust28-13Sep 26LDust24-13Ancient8-13Sep 20WAncient13-8Cache16-13Map lab
BORRACHEIROS55%to win the Bo3 · most likely BORRACHEIROS 2-1
If the veto goes
BORRACHEIROS 55%how the series ends45% QUINTESSÊNCIA
22%2-027%
32%2-118%
BORRACHEIROS42%7-7vsQUINTESSÊNCIA58%6-4
50%Win60%
56%CT51%
48%T55%
46%Pistol55%
69%Conv64%
BORRACHEIROS53%5-5vsQUINTESSÊNCIA47%6-7
50%Win46%
48%CT53%
47%T48%
50%Pistol50%
80%Conv85%
BORRACHEIROS64%7-7vsQUINTESSÊNCIA36%4-8
50%Win33%
57%CT49%
42%T43%
46%Pistol25%
69%Conv83%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
BORRACHEIROSMirageQUINTESSÊNCIA
56%CT side51%
48%T side55%
46%Pistol55%
69%After win64%
20%After loss22%
BORRACHEIROSDust2QUINTESSÊNCIA
48%CT side53%
47%T side48%
50%Pistol50%
80%After win85%
10%After loss0%
BORRACHEIROSAncientQUINTESSÊNCIA
57%CT side49%
42%T side43%
46%Pistol25%
69%After win83%
20%After loss6%
Pistol rounds47% · 43% · BORRACHEIROS win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol72% · 77% · QUINTESSÊNCIA keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol18% · 8% · BORRACHEIROS fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, BORRACHEIROS vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapBORQUI
CacheBOR bann/a0g89%8-1
BORRACHEIROS on Cache
no recent maps
NukeQUI ban20%1-4100%1-0
BORRACHEIROS on Nuke
WDAMAJUANA13–21mo agoL
BESTIA Academy20–222mo agoL
Galorys2–132mo agoLALKA13–162mo agoLALKA10–133mo agoQUINTESSÊNCIA on Nuke
Wyour end13–71mo agoMirageBOR pick50%7-760%6-4
Dust2QUI pick50%5-546%6-7
InfernoBOR ban44%4-560%3-2
AnubisQUI ban56%5-450%1-1
Ancientdecider50%7-733%4-8
Each team's usual first ban: BORRACHEIROS Cache · QUINTESSÊNCIA Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
BORRACHEIROS
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i9/29 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 29 maps they won, 9 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs ProcyonInfernofrom 12 downvs Keyd StarsAncientfrom 6 downvs MEIA NOITEAncientfrom 6 downvs Turma do PagodeAnubisfrom 6 downvs Sementes do MalDust2from 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i11/32 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 32 maps they lost, 11 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ODDIKAncientled 7 · lost 10-13vs ALKANukeled 7 · lost 13-16vs ALKADust2led 7 · lost 7-13vs PeladonaDust2led 4 · lost 10-13vs MEIA NOITEAncientled 4 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 12 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ProcyonInfernofrom 12 down · won 13-1
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ODDIKAncientled 7 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 8Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 8 went to overtime.vs Keyd StarsAncient16-14vs ALKANuke13-16vs MEIA NOITEAncient16-13vs BESTIA AcademyNuke20-22vs GalorysAncient19-15
QUINTESSÊNCIA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i11/29 (38%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 29 maps they won, 11 (38%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 38% of their wins were comebacks, not 38% of all games.vs MEIA NOITEAncientfrom 8 downvs PugdesonestoInfernofrom 6 downvs ProcyonDust2from 5 downvs DAMAJUANAAnubisfrom 5 downvs METANOIA WolvesMiragefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i4/23 (17%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 23 maps they lost, 4 (17%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs RED Canids AcademyDust2led 5 · lost 10-13vs UNO MILLEDust2led 4 · lost 17-19vs GrêmioInfernoled 3 · lost 7-13vs GrêmioDust2led 3 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MEIA NOITEAncientfrom 8 down · won 13-8
Biggest lead blowni5 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs RED Canids AcademyDust2led 5 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs UNO MILLEDust217-19vs MEIA NOITECache16-13vs GrêmioCache19-17vs GrêmioDust213-16