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Predictions / BESTIA vs BARCA · match preview
BESTIA vs BARCA: CS2 match prediction · FiRe Last Chance 2026
FiRe Last Chance 2026 · Best of 3 · ★
71%29%
62%
1.52.4Market · 17 books
38%The call · high confidence
BESTIA are favoured: our model gives them 71% against BARCA. Bookmakers lean BESTIA at 62%. Strength clearly favours BESTIA, record slightly favours BESTIA, firepower slightly favours BESTIA.
Likely mapsDust2 · Inferno · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
BESTIApullBARCA
Team strength1653
153274/26 BES
Track record53–33
3–457/43 BES
Recent formLWWWLLWWWL50/50
Roster rating1.11
1.1270/30 BES
Bookmakers imply 62% for BESTIA (1.5 / 2.4); we land 9 points higher at 71%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 81% our own signal (177 maps of BESTIA, 18 of BARCA).
Bottom line: BESTIA to beat BARCA, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBESTIA · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.02iStar gap: the best player rates 0.02 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
BARCA · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.16iStar gap: the best player rates 0.16 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
BESTIA
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
paiN#401-21-2
BESTIA vs paiN
Oct 25LMirage11-13Inferno13-9Dust210-13BARCA vs paiN
Oct 21LInferno13-2Dust27-13Mirage9-13
Wildcard#473-10-2
BARCA vs Wildcard
Nov 1LInferno7-13Nuke0-13
Fluxo#636-02-0
BARCA vs Fluxo
Oct 31WInferno19-17Mirage13-8
Galorys#685-51-2
BESTIA vs Galorys
Oct 23WAncient13-9Inferno13-11Sep 18LAncient10-13Dust27-13Jul 31WAncient12-16Cache22-19Dust213-11+1 earlier meeting
BARCA vs Galorys
Oct 21LInferno13-6Ancient6-13Dust210-13
Bounty Hunters#774-13-3
Map lab
BESTIA54%to win the Bo3 · most likely BESTIA 2-1
If the veto goes
BESTIA 54%how the series ends46% BARCA
23%2-021%
31%2-125%
BESTIA69%28-15vsBARCA31%1-3
65%Win25%
55%CT54%
53%T35%
45%Pistol75%
76%Conv100%
BESTIA33%14-13vsBARCA67%4-1
52%Win80%
56%CT50%
47%T70%
50%Pistol60%
70%Conv83%
BESTIA56%17-16vsBARCA44%1-2
52%Win33%
54%CT56%
45%T43%
59%Pistol33%
84%Conv50%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
BESTIADust2BARCA
55%CT side54%
53%T side35%
45%Pistol75%
76%After win100%
36%After loss50%
BESTIAInfernoBARCA
56%CT side50%
47%T side70%
50%Pistol60%
70%After win83%
33%After loss50%
BESTIAAncientBARCA
54%CT side56%
45%T side43%
59%Pistol33%
84%After win50%
30%After loss50%
Pistol rounds51% · 58% · BARCA win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol78% · 86% · BARCA keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol34% · 50% · BARCA fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, BESTIA vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapBESBAR
AnubisBES bann/a0gn/a0g
BESTIA on Anubis
no recent maps
BARCA on Anubis
no recent maps
NukeBAR ban60%12-80%0-1
Dust2BES pick65%28-1525%1-3
InfernoBAR pick52%14-1380%4-1
CacheBES ban40%4-6100%2-0
MirageBAR ban60%21-1433%1-2
Ancientdecider52%17-1633%1-2
Each team's usual first ban: BESTIA Anubis · BARCA Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
BESTIA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i28/99 (28%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 99 maps they won, 28 (28%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 28% of their wins were comebacks, not 28% of all games.vs LPAncientfrom 10 downvs ProcyonDust2from 6 downvs 3DMAXDust2from 5 downvs AaBOverpassfrom 5 downvs ShindeNDust2from 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i26/74 (35%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 74 maps they lost, 26 (35%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs B8Mirageled 7 · lost 14-16vs WildcardNukeled 7 · lost 6-13vs Fake do BiruInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs ImperialDust2led 6 · lost 13-16vs YawaraMirageled 6 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LPAncientfrom 10 down · won 13-5
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs B8Mirageled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 24Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 24 went to overtime.vs ShindeNNuke19-17vs MarsborneAncient19-16vs RED CanidsAncient16-13vs MANAMirage12-16vs Gaimin GladiatorsAncient14-16
BARCA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i3/9 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 9 maps they won, 3 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs Arena ProDust2from 9 downvs FluxoMiragefrom 4 downvs FluxoInfernofrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i4/9 (44%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 9 maps they lost, 4 (44%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Bounty HuntersDust2led 8 · lost 5-13vs WildcardInfernoled 6 · lost 7-13vs GalorysDust2led 3 · lost 10-13vs Bounty HuntersMirageled 3 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Arena ProDust2from 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Bounty HuntersDust2led 8 · lost 5-13
Avg map margini6.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi22% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT22% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs FluxoInferno19-17