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Predictions / BAKS vs Leo · match preview
BAKS vs Leo: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 13
BAKS
World #96 · 29-24
VS
2026-11-09 12:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 13 · Best of 3
Leo
World #79 · 64-61
CCT 2026 Europe Series 13 · Best of 3
51%49%
57%
1.62.11Market · 1 books
43%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 51–49. Bookmakers lean BAKS at 57%. Form slightly favours BAKS, firepower clearly favours BAKS, head-to-head clearly favours Leo.
Likely mapsCache · Nuke · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
BAKSpullLeo
Team strength1553
154851/49 BAK
Track record29–24
64–6153/47 BAK
Recent formLWWLW
LLWLW63/37 BAK
Roster rating1.11
1.1171/29 BAK
Head-to-head0 maps
2 maps75/25 LEO
Bookmakers imply 57% for BAKS (1.6 / 2.11); we land 6 points lower at 51%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (133 maps of BAKS, 312 of Leo). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Leo leads 1–0.
Bottom line: BAKS to beat Leo, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBAKS · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.01iStar gap: the best player rates 0.01 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Leo · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
BAKS
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
FOKUS#540-20-2
BAKS vs FOKUS
Oct 31LMirage8-13Nuke14-16Leo vs FOKUS
Sep 12LCache5-13Anubis2-13
Black Phoenix#584-72-4
BAKS vs Black Phoenix
Nov 7LCache13-7Dust25-13Mirage10-13Oct 19LCache6-13Dust211-13Sep 20WCache13-11Dust21-13Mirage13-10+1 earlier meeting
BASEMENT BOYS#641-20-2
BAKS vs BASEMENT BOYS
Aug 15LCache5-13Nuke13-4Dust24-13Leo vs BASEMENT BOYS
Aug 4LAnubis8-13Mirage7-13
Metizport#671-20-2
BAKS vs Metizport
Oct 25LCache6-13Nuke13-10Ancient8-13Leo vs Metizport
Mar 3LDust210-13Nuke11-13
Spirit Academy#834-02-2
WBT#861-22-1
BAKS vs WBT
Aug 31LCache13-5Nuke5-13Ancient7-13Leo vs WBT
Aug 3WAncient4-13Anubis13-9Dust213-11
BET-M#942-00-2
BAKS vs BET-M
Jul 28WAncient13-8Inferno13-6Leo vs BET-M
Sep 15Lseries0-2
BRUTE#951-22-0
BAKS vs BRUTE
Oct 23LCache13-8Inferno8-13Nuke7-13Leo vs BRUTE
Apr 7WNuke13-7Dust213-3Map lab
Leo60%to win the Bo3 · most likely Leo 2-1
If the veto goes
BAKS 40%how the series ends60% Leo
18%2-023%
22%2-136%
BAKS68%24-13vsLeo32%10-12
65%Win45%
57%CT51%
53%T49%
45%Pistol66%
94%Conv79%
BAKS27%10-12vsLeo73%40-17
45%Win70%
58%CT61%
38%T50%
55%Pistol52%
83%Conv81%
BAKS38%10-16vsLeo62%43-40
38%Win52%
42%CT51%
52%T52%
48%Pistol53%
80%Conv80%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
BAKSCacheLeo
57%CT side51%
53%T side49%
45%Pistol66%
94%After win79%
23%After loss20%
BAKSNukeLeo
58%CT side61%
38%T side50%
55%Pistol52%
83%After win81%
15%After loss18%
BAKSDust2Leo
42%CT side51%
52%T side52%
48%Pistol53%
80%After win80%
22%After loss17%
Pistol rounds48% · 54% · Leo win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol87% · 80% · BAKS keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol21% · 18% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, BAKS vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapBAKLEO
AnubisBAK bann/a0g31%12-27
MirageLEO ban59%10-743%9-12
CacheBAK pick65%24-1345%10-12
NukeLEO pick45%10-1270%40-17
InfernoBAK ban35%6-1150%7-7
AncientLEO ban77%10-351%27-26
Each team's usual first ban: BAKS Anubis · Leo Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
BAKS
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i24/70 (34%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 70 maps they won, 24 (34%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 34% of their wins were comebacks, not 34% of all games.vs AzuolasCachefrom 11 downvs CRUISER AURORAMiragefrom 10 downvs G2 AresCachefrom 10 downvs K28Dust2from 9 downvs DramaInfernofrom 8 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i20/63 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 63 maps they lost, 20 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SPARTAInfernoled 10 · lost 3-13vs Black PhoenixDust2led 7 · lost 10-13vs K27Cacheled 7 · lost 17-19vs GenOneInfernoled 7 · lost 7-13vs Fire FluxMirageled 7 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs AzuolasCachefrom 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SPARTAInfernoled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 12Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 12 went to overtime.vs XcityInferno16-13vs ReThinkMirage26-28vs MisaNuke12-16vs SPARTAAncient19-16vs G2 AresAncient22-20
Leo
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i47/151 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 151 maps they won, 47 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs BayankhongorAncientfrom 13 downvs RyvexNukefrom 11 downvs Saint SinnersNukefrom 9 downvs PhantomNukefrom 7 downvs Bushido WildcatsNukefrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i47/143 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 143 maps they lost, 47 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs mellrenDust2led 8 · lost 8-13vs ex-Zero TenacityCacheled 8 · lost 7-13vs UNiTYAncientled 7 · lost 14-16vs Black PhoenixDust2led 7 · lost 6-13vs MAYBECacheled 7 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 13 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs BayankhongorAncientfrom 13 down · won 13-0
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs mellrenDust2led 8 · lost 8-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 31Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 31 went to overtime.vs Lazer CatsAnubis14-16vs WWNuke17-19vs WWAnubis14-16vs BIGAnubis14-16vs Bushido WildcatsNuke19-16