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Predictions / BIG vs Sangal · match preview
BIG vs Sangal: CS2 match prediction · Stake Ranked Episode 6
Stake Ranked Episode 6 · Best of 3
46%54%
62%
1.52.44Market · 1 books
38%The call
Sangal are favoured: our model gives them 54% against BIG. Bookmakers lean BIG at 62%. Strength slightly favours Sangal, form clearly favours Sangal, firepower clearly favours Sangal.
Likely mapsAncient · Mirage · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
BIGpullSangal
Team strength1603
165361/39 SAN
Track record54–31
45–3155/45 BIG
Recent formLLWLL
WWWLW75/25 SAN
Roster rating1.13
1.1374/26 SAN
Bookmakers imply 62% for BIG (1.5 / 2.44); we land 16 points lower at 46%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (184 maps of BIG, 157 of Sangal).
Bottom line: Sangal to beat BIG, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBIG · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.14iStar gap: the best player rates 0.14 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Sangal · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
BIG
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Nemiga#92-60-2
Astralis#191-21-2
BIG vs Astralis
Oct 3LCache5-13Inferno13-11Mirage1-13Sangal vs Astralis
Sep 21LNuke19-17Ancient7-13Cache7-13
FaZe#202-11-2
BIG vs FaZe
Apr 5WDust23-13Overpass13-11Anubis13-3Sangal vs FaZe
Oct 8LDust216-13Nuke7-13Cache8-13
Eternal Fire#222-20-2
Sangal vs Eternal Fire
Oct 3LDust25-13Cache11-13
Ninjas in Pyjamas#233-32-2
BIG vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 4WAnubis13-11Inferno9-13Ancient13-6Apr 25LAncient5-13Mirage13-11Anubis5-13
HEROIC#260-21-2
BIG vs HEROIC
Apr 24LDust29-13Overpass7-13Sangal vs HEROIC
Sep 26LCache1-13Dust213-10Mirage8-13
HOTU#302-11-2
BIG vs HOTU
Mar 26WAncient13-8Dust29-13Overpass13-5Sangal vs HOTU
Jan 21LMirage13-10Overpass14-16Ancient5-13
100 Thieves#332-10-2
BIG vs 100 Thieves
Apr 23WMirage13-9Ancient3-13Dust216-13Sangal vs 100 Thieves
Oct 16LNuke8-13Dust25-13Map lab
BIG50%to win the Bo3 · most likely Sangal 2-1
If the veto goes
BIG 50%how the series ends50% Sangal
28%2-020%
23%2-129%
BIG64%24-17vsSangal36%9-12
59%Win43%
55%CT41%
49%T50%
52%Pistol55%
79%Conv65%
BIG43%17-15vsSangal57%20-13
53%Win61%
55%CT53%
42%T51%
42%Pistol50%
78%Conv91%
BIG44%10-6vsSangal56%11-5
63%Win69%
47%CT60%
58%T52%
41%Pistol53%
77%Conv94%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
BIGAncientSangal
55%CT side41%
49%T side50%
52%Pistol55%
79%After win65%
10%After loss5%
BIGMirageSangal
55%CT side53%
42%T side51%
42%Pistol50%
78%After win91%
19%After loss27%
BIGCacheSangal
47%CT side60%
58%T side52%
41%Pistol53%
77%After win94%
21%After loss27%
Pistol rounds47% · 52% · Sangal win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol78% · 84% · Sangal keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol16% · 21% · Sangal fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, BIG vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Sangal habitually bans Inferno, BIG's strongest maps (Dust2, Anubis, Overpass, Inferno, Nuke, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Inferno 53/76), not an opponent read, so expect BIG to fight the veto for Overpass.
MapBIGSAN
NukeBIG ban63%10-668%25-12
InfernoSAN ban67%16-863%5-3
AncientBIG pick59%24-1743%9-12
MirageSAN pick53%17-1561%20-13
AnubisBIG ban67%6-356%9-7
Dust2SAN ban63%12-736%8-14
Each team's usual first ban: BIG Nuke · Sangal Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
BIG
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i35/113 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 113 maps they won, 35 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs NRGMiragefrom 12 downvs Gentle MatesAncientfrom 6 downvs magicOverpassfrom 6 downvs AMMiragefrom 5 downvs AMNukefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i22/71 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 71 maps they lost, 22 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AstralisCacheled 11 · lost 5-13vs HEROICDust2led 9 · lost 9-13vs G2Cacheled 8 · lost 5-13vs fnaticInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13vs B8Dust2led 6 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 12 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs NRGMiragefrom 12 down · won 16-12
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AstralisCacheled 11 · lost 5-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 19Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 19 went to overtime.vs HYPERSPIRITOverpass17-19vs HAVUOverpass16-14vs LeoAnubis16-14vs AMNuke16-12vs NemesisMirage14-16
Sangal
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i31/88 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 88 maps they won, 31 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs Lazer CatsAnubisfrom 9 downvs ENCECachefrom 8 downvs OGDust2from 8 downvs Inner Circle AcademyAncientfrom 6 downvs FORZE ReloadAncientfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i27/68 (40%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 68 maps they lost, 27 (40%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ASTRALDust2led 8 · lost 11-13vs AstralisAncientled 8 · lost 7-13vs illwillNukeled 7 · lost 17-19vs illwillMirageled 6 · lost 9-13vs NAVI JuniorAnubisled 6 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Lazer CatsAnubisfrom 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ASTRALDust2led 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs HOTUOverpass14-16vs illwillNuke17-19vs NemesisNuke14-16vs DziuseppeAncient16-13vs Ninjas in PyjamasNuke12-16