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Predictions / MOUZ NXT vs The Last Resort · match preview
MOUZ NXT vs The Last Resort: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 8
MOUZ NXT
World #156 · 52-59
VS
TBD
CCT 2026 Europe Series 8 · Best of 3
The Last Resort
World #113 · 36-30
52%48%
46%
21.69Market · 7 books
54%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 52–48. Bookmakers lean The Last Resort at 54%. Strength slightly favours The Last Resort, firepower clearly favours MOUZ NXT.
Likely mapsNuke · Ancient · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
MOUZ NXTpullThe Last Resort
Team strength1454
149759/41 THE
Track record52–59
36–3055/45 THE
Recent formLWWLL
WLWLL53/47 THE
Roster rating1
1.0773/27 MOU
Bookmakers imply 46% for MOUZ NXT (2 / 1.69); we land 6 points higher at 52%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (253 maps of MOUZ NXT, 157 of The Last Resort).
Bottom line: MOUZ NXT to beat The Last Resort, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
MOUZ NXT
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
fnatic#381-00-2
MOUZ NXT vs fnatic
Mar 24WAnubis13-10The Last Resort vs fnatic
Jul 12LAncient4-13Cache9-13
Betclic#401-22-4
MOUZ NXT vs Betclic
Jan 18LNuke9-13Ancient13-6Mirage13-16
Nemesis#442-10-2
MOUZ NXT vs Nemesis
Mar 9WNuke11-13Ancient13-8Overpass13-7The Last Resort vs Nemesis
Apr 25LAncient9-13Mirage8-13
GenOne#534-20-4
Johnny Speeds#582-00-2
MOUZ NXT vs Johnny Speeds
Feb 18WAnubis16-12Overpass13-9The Last Resort vs Johnny Speeds
Mar 31LAncient8-13Overpass9-13
INOX Division#620-40-2
The Last Resort vs INOX Division
May 7LAncient1-13Inferno5-13
Nemiga#630-20-2
MOUZ NXT vs Nemiga
Mar 14LAnubis6-13Overpass1-13The Last Resort vs Nemiga
Mar 17LNuke5-13Anubis3-13EX-ex-RUBY#790-62-0
The Last Resort vs ex-RUBY
Mar 18WNuke13-3Mirage13-11Firepower
roster ratingsMOUZ NXT · avg 1 · top +0.12
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, MOUZ NXT vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapMOUTHE
InfernoMOU ban0%0-160%12-8
Dust2THE ban40%19-2940%4-6
NukeMOU pick51%24-2354%20-17
AncientTHE pick51%18-1755%17-14
AnubisMOU ban47%14-1660%9-6
MirageTHE ban45%21-2629%5-12
Cachedecider50%6-667%4-2
Each team's usual first ban: MOUZ NXT Inferno · The Last Resort Dust2.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
The Last Resort59%to win the seriesiMap edgesNuke: The Last Resort 53% toss-up · Ancient: The Last Resort 53% toss-up · Cache: The Last Resort 63%WhyThe Last Resort hold the edge across the maps (3 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesMOUZ NXT 41%: 2-0 22%, 2-1 19% · The Last Resort 59%: 2-1 31%, 2-0 28%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
MOUZ NXT 41%It’s nearly a coin-flip. The Last Resort only lead because their Cache is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.59% The Last Resort
Nuke
MOUZ NXT47%The Last Resort53%
24-23record20-17
51%win54%
58%CT win60%
47%T win44%
52%pistol55%
82%convert80%
Ancient
MOUZ NXT47%The Last Resort53%
18-17record17-14
51%win55%
51%CT win55%
51%T win46%
47%pistol44%
75%convert74%
Cache
MOUZ NXT38%The Last Resort62%
6-6record4-2
50%win67%
53%CT win55%
44%T win44%
42%pistol58%
80%convert100%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
MOUct
MOUt
THEct
THEt
MOUpistol
MOUconv
MOUeco
THEpistol
THEconv
THEeco
Nukepool
58%285/489
47%239/513
60%198/329
44%181/409
52%49/94
82%40/49
18%8/45
55%41/74
80%33/41
18%6/33
Ancientpool
51%203/395
51%165/325
55%162/292
46%163/354
47%33/70
75%24/32
22%8/36
44%27/62
74%20/27
23%8/35
Cachepool
53%70/133
44%64/144
55%33/60
44%31/70
42%10/24
80%8/10
14%2/14
58%7/12
100%7/7
0%0/5
Infernoban
25%3/12
43%3/7
56%122/218
52%89/170
50%1/2
0%0/1
100%1/1
60%24/40
79%19/24
31%5/16
Dust2ban
45%232/514
45%203/454
39%39/101
49%33/68
57%55/96
76%42/55
15%6/41
45%9/20
67%6/9
18%2/11
Anubisban
50%160/318
46%143/313
54%87/162
50%78/155
40%24/60
71%17/24
14%5/36
47%14/30
71%10/14
19%3/16
Mirageban
56%266/475
42%204/481
45%92/204
41%59/144
47%44/94
80%35/44
12%6/50
47%16/34
75%12/16
11%2/18
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Pistol rounds are a tie. Both win about the same (MOUZ NXT 49%, The Last Resort 51%). Nobody has an edge.
Win the pistol → both win the next round about the same (79% vs 80%). Lose the pistol → both fight back about the same (19% vs 19%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
MOUZ NXT
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i40/113 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 113 maps they won, 40 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs Nuclear TigeRESNukefrom 8 downvs Lazer CatsNukefrom 7 downvs DONSTUNukefrom 7 downvs Friendly CampersNukefrom 6 downvs Johnny SpeedsAnubisfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i47/134 (35%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 134 maps they lost, 47 (35%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Bushido WildcatsDust2led 10 · lost 3-13vs AcendAnubisled 8 · lost 13-16vs PCIFICDust2led 8 · lost 5-13vs TDKOverpassled 7 · lost 8-13vs los kogutosMirageled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Nuclear TigeRESNukefrom 8 down · won 19-15
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Bushido WildcatsDust2led 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 32Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 32 went to overtime.vs Friendly CampersNuke16-13vs Friendly CampersDust216-13vs FAVBETNuke14-16vs AaBAnubis16-14vs FAVBETNuke14-16
The Last Resort
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i26/82 (32%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 82 maps they won, 26 (32%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 32% of their wins were comebacks, not 32% of all games.vs CTRLAncientfrom 9 downvs QUAZARNukefrom 8 downvs LilmixMiragefrom 6 downvs Rune EatersAncientfrom 6 downvs BetclicCachefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i23/75 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 75 maps they lost, 23 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs QUAZARAnubisled 10 · lost 10-13vs CTRLMirageled 9 · lost 11-13vs HonvédInfernoled 8 · lost 11-13vs HEROIC AcademyInfernoled 6 · lost 14-16vs Young NinjasMirageled 6 · lost 15-19
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs CTRLAncientfrom 9 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs QUAZARAnubisled 10 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 15Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 15 went to overtime.vs FuzosOverpass16-13vs BUFF3D UPNuke16-13vs CTRLAncient16-14vs Rune EatersAnubis14-16vs HEROIC AcademyInferno14-16