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Predictions / MOUZ NXT vs UNiTY · match preview
MOUZ NXT vs UNiTY: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 8
45%55%
34%
2.761.41Market · 14 books
66%The call
UNiTY are favoured: our model gives them 55% against MOUZ NXT. Bookmakers lean UNiTY at 66%. Strength slightly favours UNiTY, form slightly favours MOUZ NXT, firepower slightly favours UNiTY.
Likely mapsAnubis · Ancient · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
MOUZ NXTpullUNiTY
Team strength1474
153463/37 UNI
Track record54–60
42–4751/49 UNI
Recent formWWLLW
LWLWW57/43 MOU
Roster rating1.04
1.161/39 UNI
Head-to-head5 maps5 maps50/50
Bookmakers imply 34% for MOUZ NXT (2.76 / 1.41); we land 11 points higher at 45%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 98% our own signal (259 maps of MOUZ NXT, 202 of UNiTY). Head-to-head they've met 4 times: split 2–2.
Bottom line: UNiTY to beat MOUZ NXT, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
MOUZ NXT
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents4mo ago
MOUZ NXT2 : 1
UNiTY!4mo ago UNiTY2 : 1 MOUZ NXT!6mo ago MOUZ NXT2 : 0 UNiTY!8mo ago MOUZ NXT0 : 2 UNiTY!
MOUZ NXT2 : 1 UNiTY!⚠ Different lineup
MOUZ NXT
outAiyvaN, Flierax, opdust
indeeN, eSx, mixer
UNiTY
outNEOFRAG, woozzzi
inSn0w, fnl
UNiTY2 : 1 MOUZ NXT!⚠ Different lineup
MOUZ NXT
outFlierax, lmbt, opdust
indeeN, eSx, mixer
UNiTY
outNEOFRAG, woozzzi
inSn0w, fnl
MOUZ NXT2 : 0 UNiTY!⚠ Different lineup
MOUZ NXT
outJoey, opdust, xelex
indeeN, eSx, mixer
UNiTY
outK1-FiDa, MoriiSko, NEOFRAG, woozzzi
in2high, KWERTZZ, Sn0w, fnl
MOUZ NXT0 : 2 UNiTY!⚠ Different lineup
MOUZ NXT
outJoey, opdust, xelex
indeeN, eSx, mixer
UNiTY
outK1-FiDa, MoriiSko, NEOFRAG, woozzzi
in2high, KWERTZZ, Sn0w, fnl
Betclic#411-22-1
MOUZ NXT vs Betclic
Jan 18LNuke9-13Ancient13-6Mirage13-16UNiTY vs Betclic
Jan 28WAncient13-5Dust26-13Mirage16-14
EYEBALLERS#420-31-0
UNiTY vs EYEBALLERS
Apr 12WMirage16-14
Nuclear TigeRES#454-40-4
MOUZ NXT vs Nuclear TigeRES
Mar 10WNuke19-15Ancient7-13Mirage13-8Feb 25WDust210-13Ancient13-8Nuke13-11Feb 8LDust28-13Ancient13-16
Acend#482-30-2
UNiTY vs Acend
Aug 27LAncient14-16Inferno10-13
Alliance#500-21-3
MOUZ NXT vs Alliance
Feb 23LAnubis8-13Overpass7-13
GenOne#554-21-6
Johnny Speeds#572-00-2
MOUZ NXT vs Johnny Speeds
Feb 18WAnubis16-12Overpass13-9UNiTY vs Johnny Speeds
Feb 14LAnubis5-13Overpass6-13
INOX Division#630-42-4
UNiTY vs INOX Division
Sep 2LAncient11-13Inferno9-13May 29WAnubis16-14Overpass13-1Apr 26LAncient8-13Nuke4-13Firepower
roster ratingsMOUZ NXT · avg 1.04 · top +0.19
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, MOUZ NXT vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapMOUUNI
InfernoMOU ban0%0-159%20-14
NukeUNI ban53%26-230%0-4
AnubisMOU pick45%14-1755%12-10
AncientUNI pick53%20-1849%26-27
MirageMOU ban45%21-2656%22-17
Dust2UNI ban40%19-2939%12-19
Cachedecider50%6-629%2-5
Each team's usual first ban: MOUZ NXT Inferno · UNiTY Nuke.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
MOUZ NXT56%to win the seriesiMap edgesAnubis: UNiTY 59% · Ancient: MOUZ NXT 53% toss-up · Cache: MOUZ NXT 67% clearWhyMOUZ NXT hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesMOUZ NXT 56%: 2-1 34%, 2-0 22% · UNiTY 44%: 2-0 27%, 2-1 17%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
MOUZ NXT 56%It’s nearly a coin-flip. MOUZ NXT only lead because their Cache is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.44% UNiTY
Anubis
MOUZ NXT41%UNiTY59%
14-17record12-10
45%win55%
51%CT win51%
45%T win50%
42%pistol43%
73%convert74%
Ancient
MOUZ NXT53%UNiTY47%
20-18record26-27
53%win49%
51%CT win54%
52%T win50%
46%pistol57%
74%convert83%
Cache
MOUZ NXT67%UNiTY33%
6-6record2-5
50%win29%
53%CT win49%
44%T win41%
42%pistol7%
80%convert100%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
MOUct
MOUt
UNIct
UNIt
MOUpistol
MOUconv
MOUeco
UNIpistol
UNIconv
UNIeco
Anubispool
51%167/330
45%147/325
51%120/237
50%108/215
42%26/62
73%19/26
14%5/36
43%19/44
74%14/19
33%8/24
Ancientpool
51%212/418
52%187/361
54%281/521
50%298/601
46%35/76
74%25/34
20%8/40
57%60/106
83%50/60
13%6/46
Cachepool
53%70/133
44%64/144
49%41/83
41%30/74
42%10/24
80%8/10
14%2/14
7%1/14
100%1/1
15%2/13
Infernoban
25%3/12
43%3/7
55%180/329
51%186/366
50%1/2
0%0/1
100%1/1
51%35/68
89%31/35
36%12/33
Nukeban
59%304/513
47%246/520
29%14/48
38%11/29
52%51/98
82%42/51
17%8/47
25%2/8
50%1/2
17%1/6
Mirageban
56%266/475
42%204/481
54%226/420
46%183/398
47%44/94
80%35/44
12%6/50
51%40/78
80%32/40
27%10/37
Dust2ban
45%232/514
45%203/454
53%191/361
45%121/271
57%55/96
76%42/55
15%6/41
52%32/62
91%29/32
10%3/30
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
UNiTY wins more pistol rounds: 49% vs 44%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → UNiTY usually win the next round too (81% vs 74%). Lose the pistol → both fight back about the same (17% vs 19%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
MOUZ NXT
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i42/117 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 117 maps they won, 42 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs KUUSAMOAncientfrom 10 downvs Nuclear TigeRESNukefrom 8 downvs Lazer CatsNukefrom 7 downvs DONSTUNukefrom 7 downvs Friendly CampersNukefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i48/136 (35%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 136 maps they lost, 48 (35%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Bushido WildcatsDust2led 10 · lost 3-13vs AcendAnubisled 8 · lost 13-16vs PCIFICDust2led 8 · lost 5-13vs TDKOverpassled 7 · lost 8-13vs los kogutosMirageled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs KUUSAMOAncientfrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Bushido WildcatsDust2led 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 33Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 33 went to overtime.vs Friendly CampersNuke16-13vs Friendly CampersDust216-13vs FAVBETNuke14-16vs AaBAnubis16-14vs FAVBETNuke14-16
UNiTY
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i28/97 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 97 maps they won, 28 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs LavkedMiragefrom 8 downvs ENCE AcademyMiragefrom 6 downvs AllianceAncientfrom 6 downvs PsychoFaceDust2from 6 downvs PermittaAnubisfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i38/103 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 103 maps they lost, 38 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs 1winAncientled 9 · lost 11-13vs KOLESIEAncientled 7 · lost 8-13vs LavkedMirageled 7 · lost 10-13vs Fingers CrossedMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs AllianceOverpassled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LavkedMiragefrom 8 down · won 13-7
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs 1winAncientled 9 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi40% · 29Close maps (≤3) · OT40% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 29 went to overtime.vs illwillInferno19-16vs illwillMirage19-17vs BetclicMirage16-14vs G2 AresOverpass17-19vs KOLESIEAncient19-17