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Predictions / Iowa Stormboar vs Overtake Sector · match preview
Iowa Stormboar vs Overtake Sector: CS2 match prediction · NSTLGA League Season 2
Iowa Stormboar
World #184 · 9-8
VS
2026-09-11 01:00 UTC
NSTLGA League Season 2 · Best of 3
Overtake Sector
World #151 · 11-10
50%50%
The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 50–50. No odds yet. Firepower clearly favours Overtake Sector, head-to-head slightly favours Iowa Stormboar.
Likely mapsMirage · Cache · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Iowa StormboarpullOvertake Sector
Team strength1514
153655/45 OVE
Track record9–8
11–1052/48 OVE
Recent formWLWWL
WWWLL54/46 OVE
Roster rating1.13
1.189/11 OVE
Head-to-head3 maps
1 maps67/33 IOW
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 90% our own signal (37 maps of Iowa Stormboar, 49 of Overtake Sector). Head-to-head they've met 2 times: Iowa Stormboar leads 2–0.
Bottom line: Iowa Stormboar to beat Overtake Sector, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
Iowa Stormboar
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents3d ago
Iowa Stormboar13 : 4
Overtake Sector◆ same lineup3mo ago Iowa Stormboar2 : 1 Overtake Sector!
Iowa Stormboar13 : 4 Overtake Sector◆ same lineup3mo ago Iowa Stormboar2 : 1 Overtake Sector!⚠ Different lineup
Iowa Stormboar
outdopplahs, jsfeltner
inTyRa, Valter0k
Overtake Sector
outsacrifice
incorim
LAG#880-20-2
Iowa Stormboar vs LAG
Jul 30LNuke4-13Inferno5-13Overtake Sector vs LAG
Jul 10LMirage11-13Inferno9-13
Marsborne#1080-40-6
Overtake Sector vs Marsborne
Sep 1LDust28-13Inferno9-13Jun 13LMirage7-13Inferno7-13May 25LMirage20-22Inferno11-13
Villainous#1662-03-1
Iowa Stormboar vs Villainous
Aug 28WInferno13-7Ancient16-13
EMPIRE#1901-22-0
Iowa Stormboar vs EMPIRE
Aug 29LCache13-4Nuke8-13Inferno10-13Overtake Sector vs EMPIRE
Aug 30WMirage13-7Inferno13-9
Wanted Goons#1941-04-2
Iowa Stormboar vs Wanted Goons
Sep 5WMirage13-7Overtake Sector vs Wanted Goons
Jul 1WAncient10-13Mirage13-11Dust213-3Jun 12WMirage13-6Ancient10-13Overpass13-7
DETONATE#2083-32-1
Overtake Sector vs DETONATE
Sep 6WCache13-9Mirage8-13Inferno13-4
Club 333#2162-01-2
Iowa Stormboar vs Club 333
Jun 13WNuke13-6Mirage13-8Overtake Sector vs Club 333
Jul 4LInferno9-13Mirage13-8Dust27-13Firepower
roster ratingsIowa Stormboar · avg 1.13 · top +0.41
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Iowa Stormboar vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapIOWOVE
AnubisIOW ban50%1-175%3-1
Overtake Sector on Anubis
W
Voca13–119d agoLVillainous3–1312d agoWBrahmas16–123mo agoW
ex-Aether13–84mo agoNukeOVE ban44%4-5n/a0g
Iowa Stormboar on Nuke
LEMPIRE8–139d agoLMarsborne9–1311d agoW
Shimmer13–712d agoLLAG4–131mo agoL
NRG13–161mo agoW
Festina Lente13–83mo agoWDETONATE13–23mo agoWClub 33313–63mo agoOvertake Sector on Nuke
no recent maps
MirageIOW pick56%5-457%8-6
CacheOVE pick50%1-1100%2-0
InfernoIOW ban17%1-540%4-6
AncientOVE ban75%3-133%3-6
Iowa Stormboar on Ancient
WVillainous16–1310d agoWFestina Lente13–33mo agoWOvertake Sector13–93mo agoL
M805–133mo agoDust2decider60%3-250%4-4
Each team's usual first ban: Iowa Stormboar Inferno · Overtake Sector Nuke.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
Overtake Sector52%to win the seriesiMap edgesMirage: Overtake Sector 52% toss-up · Cache: Overtake Sector 58% · Dust2: Iowa Stormboar 56% toss-upWhyOvertake Sector hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesIowa Stormboar 48%: 2-1 28%, 2-0 20% · Overtake Sector 52%: 2-0 30%, 2-1 22%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Iowa Stormboar 48%It’s nearly a coin-flip. Overtake Sector only lead because their Cache is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.52% Overtake Sector
Mirage
Iowa Stormboar48%Overtake Sector52%
5-4record8-6
56%win57%
63%CT win64%
43%T win39%
44%pistol46%
75%convert69%
Cache
Iowa Stormboar42%Overtake Sector58%
1-1record2-0
50%win100%
45%CT win55%
65%T win58%
75%pistol25%
100%convert100%
Dust2
Iowa Stormboar56%Overtake Sector44%
3-2record4-4
60%win50%
47%CT win51%
53%T win56%
20%pistol44%
100%convert71%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
IOWct
IOWt
OVEct
OVEt
IOWpistol
IOWconv
IOWeco
OVEpistol
OVEconv
OVEeco
Miragepool
63%63/100
43%39/90
64%89/138
39%63/162
44%8/18
75%6/8
10%1/10
46%13/28
69%9/13
20%3/15
Cachepool
45%9/20
65%11/17
55%12/22
58%14/24
75%3/4
100%3/3
0%0/1
25%1/4
100%1/1
33%1/3
Dust2pool
47%24/51
53%27/51
51%43/84
56%43/77
20%2/10
100%2/2
13%1/8
44%7/16
71%5/7
33%3/9
Anubisban
42%10/24
60%12/20
42%20/48
57%21/37
100%4/4
100%4/4
n/a
50%4/8
25%1/4
25%1/4
Nukeban
61%45/74
45%47/105
n/a
n/a
61%11/18
91%10/11
14%1/7
n/a
n/a
n/a
Infernoban
29%20/68
41%17/41
52%59/113
50%49/98
17%2/12
100%2/2
20%2/10
50%10/20
70%7/10
0%0/10
Ancientban
56%18/32
52%25/48
56%54/96
43%41/96
50%4/8
100%4/4
0%0/4
33%6/18
100%6/6
17%2/12
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Overtake Sector wins more pistol rounds: 44% vs 41%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → Iowa Stormboar usually win the next round too (85% vs 71%). Lose the pistol → Overtake Sector fight back to win the next round more often (26% vs 11%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Iowa Stormboar
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i4/18 (22%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 18 maps they won, 4 (22%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 22% of their wins were comebacks, not 22% of all games.vs Beyond LimitsDust2from 7 downvs Beyond LimitsMiragefrom 5 downvs ShimmerDust2from 4 downvs VillainousAncientfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i4/19 (21%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 19 maps they lost, 4 (21%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs M80Mirageled 5 · lost 11-13vs DETONATEMirageled 5 · lost 10-13vs MarsborneAnubisled 5 · lost 9-13vs NRGNukeled 3 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Beyond LimitsDust2from 7 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni5 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs M80Mirageled 5 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi22% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT22% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs DETONATEMirage14-16vs NRGNuke13-16vs VillainousAncient16-13vs Beyond LimitsDust216-14
Overtake Sector
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i11/25 (44%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 25 maps they won, 11 (44%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 44% of their wins were comebacks, not 44% of all games.vs Wanted GoonsMiragefrom 6 downvs VillainousMiragefrom 6 downvs EMPIREMiragefrom 5 downvs EMPIREInfernofrom 5 downvs Chicken CoopMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i10/24 (42%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 24 maps they lost, 10 (42%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MarsborneInfernoled 10 · lost 11-13vs DETONATEMirageled 5 · lost 8-13vs Wanted GoonsAncientled 4 · lost 10-13vs LAGMirageled 4 · lost 11-13vs NuToriousInfernoled 4 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Wanted GoonsMiragefrom 6 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MarsborneInfernoled 10 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini4.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs ex-AetherAncient12-16vs MarsborneMirage20-22vs BrahmasAnubis16-12vs VillainousMirage16-14