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Predictions / Marsborne vs Without a Roof · match preview
Marsborne vs Without a Roof: CS2 match prediction · NSTLGA League Season 2
Marsborne
World #108 · 43-26
VS
2026-09-11 01:00 UTC
NSTLGA League Season 2 · Best of 3
Without a Roof
World #161 · 7-4
72%28%
The call · high confidence
Marsborne are favoured: our model gives them 72% against Without a Roof. No odds yet. Strength clearly favours Marsborne, firepower slightly favours Marsborne, head-to-head slightly favours Marsborne.
Likely mapsInferno · Mirage · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
MarsbornepullWithout a Roof
Team strength1676
153877/23 MAR
Track record43–26
7–453/47 MAR
Recent formWWWWW
WWLWW55/45 MAR
Roster rating1.16
1.1961/39 MAR
Head-to-head1 maps
0 maps67/33 MAR
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 81% our own signal (160 maps of Marsborne, 18 of Without a Roof). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Marsborne leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Marsborne to beat Without a Roof, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
Marsborne
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
SportsBetExpert#804-41-2
Marsborne vs SportsBetExpert
Aug 2LNuke6-13Anubis4-13May 31WInferno13-9Mirage13-8May 24LInferno10-13Anubis2-13+1 earlier meeting
LAG#886-00-2
Marsborne vs LAG
Sep 6WDust213-11Inferno13-9Jul 28WMirage13-11Ancient13-5May 30WInferno13-6Mirage13-10Without a Roof vs LAG
Aug 30LAncient6-13Nuke7-13
regain#1305-21-0
Marsborne vs regain
Aug 1WMirage13-6Ancient13-4Jul 9LAncient13-1Cache5-13Mirage14-16Jan 10WInferno13-5Mirage13-11Without a Roof vs regain
Sep 4WMirage13-6Firepower
roster ratingsMarsborne · avg 1.16 · top +0.07
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Marsborne vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Without a Roof habitually bans Anubis, Marsborne's strongest maps (Inferno, Mirage, Ancient, Anubis all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Anubis 9/11), not an opponent read, so expect Marsborne to fight the veto for Inferno.
MapMARWIT
Dust2MAR ban54%7-650%1-1
AnubisWIT ban76%13-4100%1-0
InfernoMAR pick74%28-1040%2-3
MirageWIT pick69%18-880%4-1
CacheMAR ban0%0-1n/a0g
Marsborne on Cache
Lregain5–132mo agoWithout a Roof on Cache
no recent maps
NukeWIT ban53%8-750%1-1
Ancientdecider60%18-1267%2-1
Each team's usual first ban: Marsborne Dust2 · Without a Roof Anubis.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
Marsborne60%to win the seriesiMap edgesInferno: Marsborne 73% clear · Mirage: Without a Roof 54% toss-up · Ancient: Without a Roof 50% toss-upWhyWithout a Roof are favoured on 2 of 3 maps, but only barely: the other maps are near 50/50 (Mirage & Ancient), so Marsborne just need to steal one (~73% to grab at least one).OutcomesMarsborne 60%: 2-0 34%, 2-1 26% · Without a Roof 40%: 2-1 26%, 2-0 14%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Marsborne 60%Marsborne are the clearer side here: the most likely result is Marsborne 2-0.40% Without a Roof
Inferno
Marsborne73%Without a Roof27%
28-10record2-3
74%win40%
64%CT win45%
52%T win42%
62%pistol30%
74%convert33%
Mirage
Marsborne46%Without a Roof54%
18-8record4-1
69%win80%
63%CT win78%
47%T win51%
54%pistol70%
79%convert100%
Ancient
Marsborne50%Without a Roof50%
18-12record2-1
60%win67%
60%CT win48%
46%T win68%
65%pistol50%
82%convert100%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
MARct
MARt
WITct
WITt
MARpistol
MARconv
MAReco
WITpistol
WITconv
WITeco
Infernopool
64%220/344
52%221/428
45%19/42
42%23/55
62%47/76
74%35/47
28%8/29
30%3/10
33%1/3
14%1/7
Miragepool
63%175/278
47%115/244
78%36/46
51%25/49
54%28/52
79%22/28
25%6/24
70%7/10
100%7/7
33%1/3
Ancientpool
60%173/290
46%142/306
48%13/27
68%19/28
65%39/60
82%32/39
10%2/21
50%3/6
100%3/3
0%0/3
Dust2ban
45%67/149
48%53/110
58%14/24
62%8/13
62%16/26
75%12/16
20%2/10
75%3/4
67%2/3
0%0/1
Anubisban
57%99/173
59%88/150
58%7/12
50%6/12
41%14/34
100%14/14
40%8/20
0%0/2
n/a
50%1/2
Cacheban
42%5/12
0%0/6
n/a
n/a
0%0/2
n/a
0%0/2
n/a
n/a
n/a
Nukeban
54%84/157
41%58/141
65%11/17
45%9/20
47%14/30
71%10/14
13%2/16
75%3/4
100%3/3
0%0/1
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Marsborne wins more pistol rounds: 61% vs 50%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → Without a Roof usually win the next round too (85% vs 78%). Lose the pistol → Marsborne fight back to win the next round more often (22% vs 15%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Marsborne
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i37/99 (37%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 99 maps they won, 37 (37%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 37% of their wins were comebacks, not 37% of all games.vs Overtake SectorInfernofrom 10 downvs Chicken CoopAncientfrom 10 downvs 9zAncientfrom 6 downvs LAGMiragefrom 6 downvs Chicken CoopDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i23/60 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 60 maps they lost, 23 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs NRGDust2led 11 · lost 2-13vs SportsBetExpertAnubisled 9 · lost 4-13vs NRGMirageled 6 · lost 17-19vs ZomblersAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs GalorysOverpassled 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Overtake SectorInfernofrom 10 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs NRGDust2led 11 · lost 2-13
Avg map margini5.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 14Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 14 went to overtime.vs NRGMirage19-22vs NRGMirage17-19vs BESTIAAncient16-19vs VocaOverpass14-16vs Fake do BiruInferno19-17
Without a Roof
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i5/11 (45%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 11 maps they won, 5 (45%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 45% of their wins were comebacks, not 45% of all games.vs regainMiragefrom 5 downvs For FunAnubisfrom 5 downvs Wanted GoonsAncientfrom 3 downvs For FunMiragefrom 3 downvs EMPIREInfernofrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i2/7 (29%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 7 maps they lost, 2 (29%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SportsBetExpertMirageled 7 · lost 9-13vs LAGAncientled 3 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs regainMiragefrom 5 down · won 13-6
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SportsBetExpertMirageled 7 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini6.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi17% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT17% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample