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Predictions / Honvéd vs Permitta · match preview
Honvéd vs Permitta: CS2 match prediction · NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier
Honvéd
World #135 · 25-27
VS
2026-09-10 17:00 UTC
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
Permitta
World #112 · 9-10
42%58%
The call
Permitta are favoured: our model gives them 58% against Honvéd. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours Permitta, firepower clearly favours Permitta.
Likely mapsMirage · Nuke · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
HonvédpullPermitta
Team strength1458
149959/41 PER
Track record25–27
9–1053/47 PER
Recent formWWLLLWWLLL50/50
Roster rating1.09
1.0891/9 PER
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 91% our own signal (122 maps of Honvéd, 44 of Permitta).
Bottom line: Permitta to beat Honvéd, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
Honvéd
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Bushido Wildcats#692-50-4
Honvéd vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 24LDust26-13Cache10-13Aug 21LDust25-13Cache4-13Aug 19WCache13-6Dust23-13Mirage13-10
Vexar#1261-20-2
Honvéd vs Vexar
Jul 25LAncient13-11Dust213-16Mirage5-13Permitta vs Vexar
Aug 21LAncient9-13Nuke11-13
Misa#1282-12-0
Honvéd vs Misa
Jul 21WDust213-11Mirage8-13Anubis16-13Permitta vs Misa
Aug 27WCache16-13Ancient13-3
Falcons Force#1591-21-2
Honvéd vs Falcons Force
Aug 20LMirage10-13Ancient13-11Cache8-13Permitta vs Falcons Force
Aug 19LAncient8-13Anubis13-6Mirage2-13MAIMai Tai2-02-0
Honvéd vs Mai Tai
Jul 22WDust213-11Mirage13-8Permitta vs Mai Tai
Aug 28WNuke13-7Mirage19-15
A Great Chaos2-02-0
Honvéd vs A Great Chaos
May 16WDust213-11Mirage13-8Permitta vs A Great Chaos
Sep 6WMirage13-9Nuke13-2Firepower
roster ratingsHonvéd · avg 1.09 · top +0.08
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Honvéd vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapHONPER
AnubisHON ban50%3-380%4-1
Dust2PER ban54%20-170%0-4
MirageHON pick50%16-1663%5-3
NukePER pick60%3-245%5-6
CacheHON ban30%3-783%5-1
InfernoPER ban22%2-7n/a0g
Honvéd on Inferno
L
SAW Youngsters8–137d agoL
INOX Division9–1316d agoW
Entropy13–420d agoL
mellren11–1322d agoW
The Last Resort13–1124d agoL
BET-M14–161mo agoLEntropy15–192mo agoL
GenOne11–132mo agoPermitta on Inferno
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: Honvéd Nuke · Permitta Inferno.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
Honvéd55%to win the seriesiMap edgesMirage: Permitta 60% · Nuke: Honvéd 59% · Ancient: Honvéd 60%WhyHonvéd hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesHonvéd 55%: 2-1 31%, 2-0 24% · Permitta 45%: 2-0 25%, 2-1 21%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Honvéd 55%It’s nearly a coin-flip. Honvéd only lead because their Ancient & Nuke is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.45% Permitta
Mirage
Honvéd40%Permitta60%
16-16record5-3
50%win63%
58%CT win54%
40%T win37%
58%pistol44%
81%convert71%
Nuke
Honvéd59%Permitta41%
3-2record5-6
60%win45%
50%CT win61%
49%T win48%
60%pistol64%
50%convert86%
Ancient
Honvéd60%Permitta40%
8-8record3-5
50%win38%
53%CT win46%
45%T win49%
66%pistol38%
71%convert83%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
HONct
HONt
PERct
PERt
HONpistol
HONconv
HONeco
PERpistol
PERconv
PEReco
Miragepool
58%181/311
40%135/340
54%47/87
37%32/86
58%37/64
81%30/37
11%3/27
44%7/16
71%5/7
22%2/9
Nukepool
50%30/60
49%20/41
61%60/99
48%64/132
60%6/10
50%3/6
25%1/4
64%14/22
86%12/14
25%2/8
Ancientpool
53%81/154
45%80/179
46%36/79
49%45/91
66%21/32
71%15/21
0%0/11
38%6/16
83%5/6
40%4/10
Anubisban
53%25/47
44%27/62
48%29/60
65%34/52
75%9/12
89%8/9
33%1/3
60%6/10
100%6/6
25%1/4
Dust2ban
51%203/398
46%185/398
38%18/48
43%16/37
53%39/74
90%35/39
14%5/35
25%2/8
100%2/2
0%0/5
Cacheban
52%58/111
43%47/110
56%35/62
56%35/63
55%11/20
100%11/11
0%0/9
67%8/12
100%8/8
75%3/4
Infernoban
42%42/99
51%49/96
n/a
n/a
50%9/18
78%7/9
33%3/9
n/a
n/a
n/a
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Honvéd wins more pistol rounds: 60% vs 50%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → Permitta usually win the next round too (81% vs 75%). Lose the pistol → Permitta fight back to win the next round more often (30% vs 10%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Honvéd
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i17/55 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 55 maps they won, 17 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs RUSTECDust2from 10 downvs The Last ResortInfernofrom 8 downvs brazylijski luzMiragefrom 6 downvs PrivateerNukefrom 6 downvs Noir VerseDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i22/63 (35%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 63 maps they lost, 22 (35%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs EntropyMirageled 10 · lost 3-13vs BebopCacheled 7 · lost 11-13vs ex-MANADust2led 6 · lost 8-13vs MisaMirageled 6 · lost 8-13vs TNCAncientled 5 · lost 15-19
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs RUSTECDust2from 10 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs EntropyMirageled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi39% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT39% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs PUREDust216-14vs brazylijski luzAncient19-17vs TNCAncient15-19vs ex-MANAMirage13-16vs GenOneDust213-16
Permitta
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i6/22 (27%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 22 maps they won, 6 (27%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 27% of their wins were comebacks, not 27% of all games.vs G2 AresCachefrom 6 downvs G2 AresAnubisfrom 6 downvs AzuolasMiragefrom 5 downvs UNiTYCachefrom 4 downvs MisaCachefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i5/20 (25%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 20 maps they lost, 5 (25%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs UNiTYAnubisled 6 · lost 17-19vs UNiTYAncientled 5 · lost 16-19vs HAVUNukeled 4 · lost 17-19vs OGDust2led 3 · lost 11-13vs OGAncientled 3 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs G2 AresCachefrom 6 down · won 13-8
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs UNiTYAnubisled 6 · lost 17-19
Avg map margini4.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi45% · 10Close maps (≤3) · OT45% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 10 went to overtime.vs HAVUNuke17-19vs UNiTYAncient16-19vs UNiTYAnubis17-19vs G2 AresMirage16-14vs MisaCache16-13