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Predictions / BAKS vs G2 Ares · match preview
BAKS vs G2 Ares: CS2 match prediction · NODWIN Clutch Series 12
BAKS
World #83 · 12-10
VS
2026-09-17 17:00 UTC
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
G2 Ares
World #103 · 41-41
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
62%38%
55%
1.72.1Market · 7 books
45%The call
BAKS are favoured: our model gives them 62% against G2 Ares. Bookmakers lean BAKS at 55%. Strength slightly favours BAKS, record slightly favours BAKS, firepower slightly favours G2 Ares.
Likely mapsCache · Inferno · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
BAKSpullG2 Ares
Team strength1568
150164/36 BAK
Track record12–10
41–4159/41 BAK
Recent formLWLWW
LWLLW56/44 BAK
Roster rating1.1
1.0758/42 G2
Bookmakers imply 55% for BAKS (1.7 / 2.1); we land 7 points higher at 62%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 93% our own signal (55 maps of BAKS, 187 of G2 Ares).
Bottom line: BAKS to beat G2 Ares, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBAKS · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| whisper★ | 1.13 | 76.7 | 72.4% | 62% | 1.18 |
| turbo | 1.07 | 75.7 | 73.2% | 62% | 1.17 |
| Norwi | 0.95 | 73.2 | 69.2% | 47% | 1.07 |
| danistzz | 1.12 | 69.7 | 74.6% | 38% | 1.05 |
| xdENiSZERA | 1.01 | 70.2 | 73.4% | 55% | 1.02 |
G2 Ares · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
BAKS
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
BET-M#772-00-2
BAKS vs BET-M
Jul 28WAncient13-8Inferno13-6G2 Ares vs BET-M
Mar 4LAnubis9-13Ancient10-13EX-ex-RUBY#1042-10-2
BAKS vs ex-RUBY
Sep 13WCache13-6Mirage5-13Ancient13-5G2 Ares vs ex-RUBY
Jun 12LOverpass11-13Dust29-13
Misa#1103-35-3
SPARTA1-20-4
BAKS vs SPARTA
Sep 16LAncient19-16Dust25-13Inferno3-13
CYBERSHOKE Prospects1-22-1
BAKS vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects
May 23LNuke3-13Inferno13-5Dust27-13G2 Ares vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects
Jul 21WAncient8-13Dust216-13Inferno13-10Map lab
BAKS68%to win the Bo3 · most likely BAKS 2-0
If the veto goes
BAKS 68%how the series ends32% G2 Ares
41%2-08%
27%2-124%
BAKS85%9-3vsG2 Ares15%2-6
75%Win25%
59%CT51%
54%T38%
54%Pistol44%
92%Conv43%
BAKS48%4-4vsG2 Ares52%21-19
50%Win53%
46%CT54%
47%T49%
44%Pistol49%
71%Conv67%
BAKS53%6-6vsG2 Ares47%16-18
50%Win47%
42%CT50%
60%T46%
50%Pistol51%
83%Conv60%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
BAKSCacheG2 Ares
59%CT side51%
54%T side38%
54%Pistol44%
92%After win43%
18%After loss0%
BAKSInfernoG2 Ares
46%CT side54%
47%T side49%
44%Pistol49%
71%After win67%
11%After loss34%
BAKSDust2G2 Ares
42%CT side50%
60%T side46%
50%Pistol51%
83%After win60%
8%After loss18%
Pistol rounds50% · 49% · level, no edge
After a won pistol84% · 62% · BAKS keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol13% · 24% · G2 Ares fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, BAKS vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapBAKG2
AnubisBAK bann/a0g44%7-9
BAKS on Anubis
no recent maps
NukeG2 ban50%5-5n/a0g
BAKS on Nuke
W
FORZE Reload19–174d agoL
WBT5–1317d agoLMisa12–1617d agoW
MOUZ NXT13–1118d agoLMisa9–1318d agoW
BASEMENT BOYS13–41mo agoL
Virtus.pro10–132mo agoW
Oxuji13–94mo agoG2 Ares on Nuke
no recent maps
CacheBAK pick75%9-325%2-6
InfernoG2 pick50%4-453%21-19
MirageBAK ban50%3-350%21-21
AncientG2 ban83%5-150%14-14
Dust2decider50%6-647%16-18
Each team's usual first ban: BAKS Anubis · G2 Ares Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
BAKS
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i8/32 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 32 maps they won, 8 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs K28Dust2from 9 downvs SPARTAAncientfrom 6 downvs eternal premiumMiragefrom 5 downvs XcityInfernofrom 4 downvs MisaDust2from 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i5/23 (22%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 23 maps they lost, 5 (22%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SPARTAInfernoled 10 · lost 3-13vs CYBERSHOKE ProspectsDust2led 4 · lost 7-13vs CYBERSHOKECacheled 4 · lost 11-13vs TDKDust2led 3 · lost 8-13vs WBTNukeled 3 · lost 5-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs K28Dust2from 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SPARTAInfernoled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 5Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 5 went to overtime.vs XcityInferno16-13vs ReThinkMirage26-28vs MisaNuke12-16vs SPARTAAncient19-16vs FORZE ReloadNuke19-17
G2 Ares
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i31/91 (34%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 91 maps they won, 31 (34%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 34% of their wins were comebacks, not 34% of all games.vs LavkedOverpassfrom 10 downvs MisaInfernofrom 9 downvs AzuolasInfernofrom 8 downvs DONSTUAnubisfrom 7 downvs LilmixAncientfrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i30/96 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 96 maps they lost, 30 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs PhantomAncientled 9 · lost 4-13vs Rune EatersAncientled 8 · lost 5-13vs 9INEMirageled 8 · lost 23-25vs MisaDust2led 8 · lost 11-13vs Bushido WildcatsDust2led 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LavkedOverpassfrom 10 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs PhantomAncientled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 33Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 33 went to overtime.vs WWDust219-16vs UNiTYOverpass19-17vs zajezdzaczeDust216-14vs LavkedOverpass16-13vs aAaOverpass19-16