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Predictions / INOX Division vs UPGRADE · match preview
INOX Division vs UPGRADE: CS2 match prediction · NODWIN Clutch Series 12
INOX Division
World #59 · 57-27
VS
2026-09-18 11:00 UTC
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
UPGRADE
World #86 · 7-6
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
60%40%
51%
1.811.87Market · 2 books
49%The call
INOX Division are favoured: our model gives them 60% against UPGRADE. Bookmakers lean INOX Division at 51%. Strength slightly favours INOX Division, record slightly favours INOX Division, form slightly favours UPGRADE, firepower slightly favours UPGRADE.
Likely mapsInferno · Anubis · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
INOX DivisionpullUPGRADE
Team strength1606
155262/38 INO
Track record57–27
7–662/38 INO
Recent formWLLWL
WLWWW59/41 UPG
Roster rating1.15
1.0860/40 UPG
Bookmakers imply 51% for INOX Division (1.81 / 1.87); we land 9 points higher at 60%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 89% our own signal (204 maps of INOX Division, 33 of UPGRADE).
Bottom line: INOX Division to beat UPGRADE, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsINOX Division · avg 1.15 · star gap +0.13iStar gap: the best player rates 0.13 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
UPGRADE · avg 1.08 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| pleynnn★ | 1.12 | 81.3 | 72.8% | 60% | 1.19 |
| SquEzxc | 1.09 | 73.4 | 72.7% | 33% | 1.09 |
| dezl3bio | 1.01 | 76.8 | 70.7% | 57% | 1.07 |
| DAN9ARMATURA | 0.94 | 65.7 | 71.9% | 59% | 1.02 |
| tw1sterzaza | 0.93 | 73.4 | 70.5% | 51% | 1.02 |
Recent form
INOX Division
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
HOTU#281-21-2
INOX Division vs HOTU
May 12LNuke13-10Dust222-25Ancient6-13UPGRADE vs HOTU
Aug 31LAnubis8-13Nuke19-15Dust22-13
Nemesis#440-20-2
INOX Division vs Nemesis
May 26LInferno12-16Ancient6-13UPGRADE vs Nemesis
Sep 16LCache5-13Inferno8-13
Nuclear TigeRES#471-22-1
INOX Division vs Nuclear TigeRES
Sep 9LAncient9-13Dust213-8Inferno4-13UPGRADE vs Nuclear TigeRES
Sep 13WDust25-13Cache13-8Anubis13-11COLColor#570-20-2
INOX Division vs Color
Sep 13LInferno4-13Dust214-16UPGRADE vs Color
Aug 31LAnubis7-13Dust211-13
FORZE Reload#750-44-2
Black Phoenix#892-11-2
INOX Division vs Black Phoenix
Sep 10WNuke13-4Dust21-13Inferno13-5UPGRADE vs Black Phoenix
Aug 28LCache11-13Anubis13-4Nuke11-13
PCIFIC#1071-22-0
INOX Division vs PCIFIC
Sep 7LAnubis13-5Nuke11-13Dust211-13UPGRADE vs PCIFIC
Sep 16WInferno13-8Anubis13-2
HYPERSPIRIT#1392-02-0
INOX Division vs HYPERSPIRIT
Jun 8WInferno13-11Dust213-3UPGRADE vs HYPERSPIRIT
Aug 29WInferno13-7Ancient13-6Map lab
INOX Division55%to win the Bo3 · most likely INOX Division 2-1
If the veto goes
INOX Division 55%how the series ends45% UPGRADE
18%2-031%
37%2-113%
INOX Division52%29-16vsUPGRADE48%2-1
64%Win67%
54%CT53%
53%T58%
51%Pistol50%
72%Conv100%
INOX Division35%9-6vsUPGRADE65%7-2
60%Win78%
52%CT53%
55%T60%
40%Pistol61%
100%Conv82%
INOX Division74%27-14vsUPGRADE26%3-5
66%Win38%
62%CT48%
50%T42%
57%Pistol38%
87%Conv83%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
INOX DivisionInfernoUPGRADE
54%CT side53%
53%T side58%
51%Pistol50%
72%After win100%
34%After loss33%
INOX DivisionAnubisUPGRADE
52%CT side53%
55%T side60%
40%Pistol61%
100%After win82%
39%After loss29%
INOX DivisionDust2UPGRADE
62%CT side48%
50%T side42%
57%Pistol38%
87%After win83%
29%After loss0%
Pistol rounds52% · 50% · level, no edge
After a won pistol82% · 85% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol33% · 15% · INOX Division fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, INOX Division vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapINOUPG
MirageINO bann/a0g50%1-1
INOX Division on Mirage
no recent maps
CacheUPG ban38%5-825%1-3
InfernoINO pick64%29-1667%2-1
AnubisUPG pick60%9-678%7-2
AncientINO ban64%21-1267%2-1
NukeUPG ban70%30-1325%1-3
Dust2decider66%27-1438%3-5
Each team's usual first ban: INOX Division Mirage · UPGRADE Cache.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
INOX Division
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i32/129 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 129 maps they won, 32 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs Black PhoenixNukefrom 9 downvs SPARTAOverpassfrom 8 downvs MANANukefrom 7 downvs OmegaOverpassfrom 6 downvs HYPERSPIRITInfernofrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i25/75 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 75 maps they lost, 25 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ex-RUBYNukeled 7 · lost 19-22vs MANANukeled 6 · lost 11-13vs NemesisInfernoled 6 · lost 12-16vs LavkedDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs The Last ResortCacheled 6 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Black PhoenixNukefrom 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ex-RUBYNukeled 7 · lost 19-22
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 28Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 28 went to overtime.vs TDKOverpass13-16vs WalczakiDust216-13vs ex-RUBYNuke19-22vs HOTUDust222-25vs SPARTANuke20-22
UPGRADE
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i8/17 (47%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 17 maps they won, 8 (47%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 47% of their wins were comebacks, not 47% of all games.vs FORZE ReloadAnubisfrom 8 downvs FORZE ReloadMiragefrom 6 downvs HOTUNukefrom 5 downvs BET-MAnubisfrom 4 downvs XcityAnubisfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i6/16 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 16 maps they lost, 6 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BBLMirageled 7 · lost 11-13vs FORZE ReloadDust2led 6 · lost 7-13vs XcityAncientled 5 · lost 11-13vs Black PhoenixNukeled 4 · lost 11-13vs NemesisInfernoled 4 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FORZE ReloadAnubisfrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BBLMirageled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini4.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi39% · 2Close maps (≤3) · OT39% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 2 went to overtime.vs HOTUNuke19-15vs FORZE ReloadDust216-14